Are the Braves a threat?

No.

Well... maybe. But it more depends on the Nats not being as good as they thought. The Braves have played well but they've been bolstered by a league leading offense. That might be worrisome if it were Freeman, Swanson, and Albies leading the charge, but it's Freeman (well of course), and Ryan Flaherty and Preston Tucker and Nick Markakis. Flaherty and Markakis are long time major leaguers. We know who they are and it ain't this. Tucker, while being less experienced, still looks to be a 4th OF type. This won't keep up.

You've probably heard they have a lot of young guys waiting to break through and that is true but outside of Acuna, an OF who should be a very good player, they are all starting pitchers.  When's the last time you heard of a team lead down the stretch by several rookie starting pitchers? I suppose there is a first time for everything but I need to see it first. A good Braves team this year would be around .500 with eyes on 2019.

If the Braves aren't a threat just yet, that doesn't mean the Nats are in the clear. The Mets have made it through one cycle of pitching and no one got hurt! More importantly Matt Harvey looked good. If Matt Harvey is good then the Mets 1-2-3 is as good as any in baseball and they have enough depth to figure out 4 and 5. They are still not as talented on paper as the Nats but that hasn't stopped the Nats from losing the division before.

This is why the next three games matter. Things happen. The Mets could be close to the Nats at the end of the year. The easiest way to ensure that doesn't happen is to beat them outright. Give them a loss and give yourself a win. Take away any thoughts of "tie-breakers" going against you. The Nats are home for the next 10 games and should look first and foremost to take this series versus the Mets. Set the stage as it should be set, with the Nats as the team to beat and the Mets looking up at them.

What am I looking for this home stand? It's 10 games versus the Mets, Braves, and Rockies. Two decent teams and one that might be. I'd like the Nats to not lose a series - and while that may not happen exactly as planned I think no worse than 6-4 is probably right. Also, I'd like them to win the Mets series. Give me those two and it's a successful homestand. Is there panic potential? Perhaps but this early in the season it has to be a wipeout situation. Perhaps if they got swept by the Mets and followed that with losing 2 of three to Atlanta you could start to sweat. That would make the Nats like 2-7 in last 9 and looking up at the Mets by like 4-5 games and the Braves by a couple. Those aren't nearly insurmountable hills but they aren't where you want to be. So that's the low low bar the Nats are trying to stay over.

Other news

Nats extend Rizzo! This says more about Mike than anything. The going rate for a successful GM is a 5 year contract. Maybe Rizzo doesn't get that without a title, but 3-4 years would be fairly assured at most places wanting a new GM, but Rizzo sticks around for 2. Why? Well one, because that's how the Lerners deal with management positions - see every manager ever and every contract Rizzo ever signed. Rizzo wanted a longer deal but understood in the end he wasn't going to get it here. So he sticks around not because it's the best or fairest deal for him, but because he really wants to get it done. He ranks first in credit for turning what was at best a bad team with some reasons to think they could be ok in a few years into a perennial contender* He has expressed numerous times how he sees it as his job getting this team over the hump. That may be spinning it a bit overly selfless. It may be more, "I don't want to walk out of here and then watch someone come in and win with my team" but either way he thinks he should be at the helm when this team finally does what it should have done by now.

This is good news because the Nats are out of the set it and forget it years and now deep into the kind of every year machinations that teams usually face. This year is Bryce and Gio and Murphy. There's Rendon and Roark to deal with after that. There's a possible hole in SP talent coming up. A catcher issue that needs a solution. This is less than most teams have to deal with but they are still things that need to be handled correctly and you gotta trust Rizzo to do that.  



*Who ranks 2nd? Lady Luck - giving the Nats two straight generational #1s and a division that parted like the Red Sea.