Soto comparisons

Juan Soto is doing something few players has ever done. He's playing in the major at 19.  Here's a tweet that grabbed the names of the guys that did it since 2001 and it give you an interesting cross section of talent to look at.  There are future Hall of Famers and complete busts, but the general take away is Soto is likely to be a useful player. But just as important as what they became is when they became it. The Nats need help today and the primary question is if Soto can give them that help.  There's a small enough number here that we can actually go through all of these guys and see what they became and when they became it.  We'll skip Julio Urias and Felix Hernandez because they are pitchers.


Wilson Betemit -  Signed at 14 1/2*, worked up minors, he had 200 good PA in AA before getting a September call-up. He'd start the next season in AAA and not do great, getting slightly better the year after and the year after but still not good in full AAA seasons. Eventually though the Braves stuck him in the majors for good and at 23 he was an average player. He'd remain so for most of the rest of his career.

Jose Reyes - Had 295 AA PAs in one year, started next season in AAA, and was ok over 180 plate appearances. Then the Mets called him up was ok for half the season, then injuries and a position change helped him regress in his second year. His third year wasn't much better but he finally got a full good season under his belt at age 23, which he'd then repeat for a decade. A speed and defense call-up primarily.

BJ Upton - Was hitting very well over 120 PAs in AA and 300+ PAs in AAA. Didn't do so well in call-up so sent back down and spent all of next year in AAA hitting well but being kept down. He'd be back-up in 2006 and for good in 2007 at 22. That would be his best year though as he'd bop around the game and the diamond as an average player until 2016.

Justin Upton - crushed it in 150 High A and 300 AA PAs before getting call-up. Wouldn't go back down. He'd have his first better than average season at the plate at age 21. Never quite put it together after that as he'd have very good seasons intermixed with good ones but no prolonged stretches of greatness.

Mike Trout  - At 18 had great 370 PAs in A ball, a good 230 in High A. Followed with a great 400+ PAs in AA before being called up. Was below average that first fall, but next year at 20 was a ROY and MVP candidate and hasn't looked back since

Bryce Harper - Was merely good in 150 PAs AA at 18 and 80 PAs in AAA at 19, but called up due to need. He would immediately be pretty good. But injuries would dog him. When healthy he put up one of the best 50 seasons in baseball, but having a hard time fighting through niggling injuries and proving he's a dependable transformative player rather than a merely very good one.

Jurickson Profar - Great in 500+ A ball at bats at 18, Good in 500+ AA at bats at 19. Was pretty bad in his short stint so started next season in AAA, where he was good for 170 PAs before being called up again. Would then hurt his shoulder and miss 2014 and pretty much all of 2015. Since coming back has continued to not be very good.

So we see a couple things of note here.

On the negative side - only Bryce really was very impactful at 19, playing enough games at a high enough level to matter. Trout became what he was at 20, Justin Upton at 21,  BJ at 22, and Reyes and Betemit at 23.  That would suggest that Soto is likely not to be impactful this year. It is also possible to be a highly thought of prospect brought up at a young age and amount to nothing. 

On the neutral side - Soto has gotten a very very small  number of at bats in comparison to this group. The only other ones to have anywhere near as few in High A and higher is Bryce. Of course we don't know if that actually means anything. Bryce is the one that did fine and I don't see any correlation between time spent in the high minors and major league performance**.  I can say we have less assuredness about what Soto might be given that limited exposure, but that's all I can say.

On the positive side - none of these guys were hitting it like Soto. Now, probably that goes hand in had with the neutral point. If you only get like 30 or 60 PAs it's easier to put on an impressive show. In comparison A-Rod crushed in in AAA (over two seasons at 18 and 19) in 350 PAs.  However Soto did crush it as opposed to not crushing it


What will Juan Soto be? Chances are, given the team's belief in his ability to call him up at 19, his minor league stats, and the comparisons (here's some more) a pretty damn good player. There's bust potential but HOF potential too but that is probably the case with any group of minor leaguers if you think about it - so what are really saying? But the chances of Soto being a pretty damn good player this year are slim as even the best ever - Trout, A-Rod - didn't put up that type of season at 19.*** So expect to enjoy Juan Soto playing for the Nationals for a long time, either as a great player or a solid one, but don't expect to enjoy Juan Soto carrying the Nationals to the playoffs this year. He may help a little, but more likely he's along for whatever ride the Nats take this year****


*Against the rules. The Braves got punished for it.
**and even if I did - only 7 guys here. That's not a meaningful sample.
***Which is why we made a big deal of what Bryce did at 19 - however "merely good" it was
****If he IS good this year - then get very hyped