Justin Miller - the reliever the Nats have been waiting for?

Every team that rolls deep into the playoffs seem to have that guy. The guy in the pen who can just come in and smoke through 3 guys when called upon. The young gun throwing 100MPH fastballs by guys be it to shut down the opponent before the regular back end comes in or to win an epic battle against the other team's star*.  This guy can be wild but the guy is unhittable if he's on.

The Nats have never really had that. Enny Romero could dial it up but was way too hittable. Shawn Kelley was almost that but didn't quite have the fastball and at the most crucial moment his arm died and it's never come back. Christian Garcia had that potential but rather than ride his arm until it broke the Nats decided to try to make him into a starter... and his arm broke anyway. Storen could have been that but was nearly immediately promoted to closer and then a million other things happened. Barrett? Too hittable. Clippard? Not dominating in that power way. But with Justin Miller the Nats might have found their man.

Now the funny thing is, Justin isn't quite this guy if you look at what he's done. He's not fast enough to throw a bunch of 100MPH fastballs by guy. He sits regularly in the mid 90s and there's just the expectation that he will be able to up that a few MPH based on his history. Guys aren't swinging through strikes but rather he's fooling guys to swing at more balls and those are the pitches they are missing. He's not a young buck throwing his arm out but a 31 year old reclamation project.

But what we are talking about here are feelings, and Justin feels like that type of pitcher. He does rely VERY heavily on the fastball - throwing it 2/3rds to 3/4 of the time. He is a big time strike out pitcher with control issues both in his past and possibly now. His minor league career shows flashes of being unhittable. 

Relievers are fungible. We say that a lot but we often don't dig into what it means. It's a statement about the replace-ability of relievers but based in the variability of them. They pitch such a relatively few innings that you should be able to find ones that work out for 40-50 innings in a year. Guys who might be 4.00 pitchers who throw 3.30 up for that time frame. The Nats have. As much as you may hate their scrimping and saving when it comes to relief the Nats have often had good to very good pens since 2012. But while the Nats have figured that right they've never really gotten the benefit of that variability while suffering the downsides. They've had it all kind of fall apart, but they haven't really seen it all come together.  2012 was close as the pen didn't have a bad arm, but it wasn't dominating. 2014 was close with peak Clippard and Storen, but a dead offense at the end meant what was actually a maybe great pen performance in the NLDS is remembered as a complete failure. 2016 was close, but it took the trade for Melancon to make it that way and the pen would do themselves in unable to hold games 3 and 5 in the NLDS.

Ultimately the playoffs, if they get there, is what will define the pen. But right now they are closing in on having a complete pen with a dominant closer, a strong set-up and maybe that middle reliever you believe can walk on water when necessary with the bulk of the season to go. That's something they haven't had. Maybe having it so early, getting it defined so early, will make it stick come October. That's the hope anyway.


*Or lose it - see Strickland, Hunter.