TRADE

Trade! I like to do these things in Q&A for with myself so here goes:

Kelvin Herrera... I thought the closer for the Royals was still Soria. I guess I should pay more attention. Is he good?

Yes. He's been very good every year but last year. WHIPs in the 1.100s, FIPs in the 2.50-3.50 range. Very good at limiting the home runs because he's a pretty historically strong GB pitcher.

Sounds good, what happened last year? Injury?

Maybe? He did have a forearm injury later in the year, but I mean like September. He wasn't good all year. There doesn't seem to be much rhyme or reason to it. Just an off-year. He seems fine this year.

OMG I glanced at this year's stats. A 1.05 ERA?!?!  Tell me this is real

This is nowhere near real.  There are a couple of things that are going to come crashing down sooner or later.  A ridiculous 98.9% LOB rate (80% is very high - his career ave would be high 70s), a .246 BABIP (not impossible but on the low end and his career numbers are closer to .280-.290), a ridiculously low HR/FB rate of 6.7%.  (he's low but around 10% is a better guess).

So... did we get sold a lemon?

If he keeps pitching as he has then it just means he should have an ERA in the high 2.00s instead of around 1.00. That's still good right?

Phew. Well good. Now we can move on to

*cough*

What?

Well...

Tell me.

There are some things I don't like here. If you want to hear them.

I don't honestly. It's been a long 6 seasons

Too bad. The biggest reason his numbers should be in the high twos is a crazy drop in his walk-rate. Usually it's in the 3.00s, now it's under 1.00.   Also his K rate has dropped under 8.0 K/9 which isn't very good, and there's reason to believe that is going to stick.  Also he's been a great HR stopper because he's been a heavy GB pitcher. This year he's giving far fewer GBs (and far more FBs) then ever before. Also his soft-hit rate is the lowest of his career, hard hit is up matching last year. FB speed did drop over an MPH though to be fair he is starting super high (like 97 to 96)

 So what are you saying here? You said we didn't get sold a lemon!

Well actually I said if he keeps pitching like he has then the Nats are ok. So if he has really become a master of control giving up basically no walks, he'll be fine. More hits, more homers, higher ERA but still very good.

Is there any reason to believe that he can do that? Become a master of control?

Yes! Two years ago he dropped his BB/9 rate to 1.5 over the course of the year. So 0.7 might be too much but significantly under his historic 3.0+ rate has some precedent. And he's always been hard to hit, and hard to hit homers off of.  It's hard for me to see him becoming BAD. It's just there is definitely potential here that the Nats bought high - of course they didn't pay much.

What did they pay? I know maybe Kelvin Gutierrez, but I might be confusing him with the guy we got.

Don't feel bad. There aren't any big names here. I'll give a quick rundown
Kelvin Gutierrez is a Wilmer Difo type. Slick fielding, contact guy with minimal pop. He's the kind of guy, like Difo, who you can stick in the majors if not this year than next and he won't embarrass you but he should probably be on the bench. For a team like KC, who is likely to start rebuilding, he's a good guy to play to see if you get lucky. Chances are very good no you will not, but you need ML capable bodies.
Yohanse Morel is the talent. He's not yet 18 and can hit the mid 90s at least. He could develop into something special, but you can say that about dozens of 17 year olds every year. Only a handful make it. Plus he's years away, and not in the usual way we say it, which is more like "not this year or next" but in a literal sense. He's very possibly post 2021 if he ever makes it. He's not even in the traditional minors right now, pitching in the Dominican league.
Blake Perkins is the wild card. He has talent. Was deemed a plus outfielder and had shown some great patience for his age and level. But he can't hit. He's 21 in Advanced A and he's carrying a .234 average. His power showing from last year has gone away leaving him as nothing but maybe a slick fielding walk taker? That won't get him past AA. He'll have a couple years to turn things around but there isn't a strong sense from anyone he will.

This seems like not much at all

It isn't! This basically changes nothing in the Nats plans other than maybe make Difo more likely to stick around rather than be tossed into a trade or replaced from below. 

I'm still worried about the Kelvin Herrera stuff though

I know. It's weird. There's a lot of stats that are untenable or historically off. There are a couple of worrying signs. BUT if you have to guess you say "Yes, he does revert back to his norm" that means across the board though. So the hits start dropping in, he starts walking more, but also he starts throwing more GBs and gets some softer contact. If you just say the first part and not the second you are pulling out the pessimist scenario

That reminds me - you said you'd be more positive! 

Well I said I'd try to accurately present all sides so I will spell it out here. The likely scenario is Herrera pitches well (around a 3.00 ERA) getting his GBs and keeping the ball in the park but not being a DOMINANT force (as would be expected given what it took to get him).  The pessimist scenario is that the troubling numbers are real and the luck stats kick back and he goes from 60 to 30 pretty fast, a 4.00ERA+. The optimist scneario is that he has become a control master and he sort of corrects for the things I've seen I don't like (more GBs) and he puts up a under 2.50 ERA.

What I don't see is him being terrible - like a 5.00 ERA bust. I think his base level being hard to hit, being very hard to bomb, keeps that from happening. I also don't see him being dominant because the Ks aren't there.

Anything else? 

I do wonder what this means for Kintzler and Strasburg. Pitching wouldn't be the first area I would address with this team. It'd be the offense and the easiest area to improve would be catcher.

How are Kintzler and Strasburg?

Don't really know. Kintzler has a forearm strain which as you know from what we just talked about rehashing my take on Strasburg could really be nothing to worry about. He's had injuries before (shoulder in distant past, leg more recently) but this forearm doesn't seem like part of a pattern.

Strasburg still no word, but given I expect full rest to the ASG I don't expect more than the token "he's progressing" until we get into July.

In other words - there is no reason to worry about either yet. Yes, you can wonder, especially about Kintzler, but you gotta take the Nats at their word right now.