10 Week Status
Record: 49-49
Ground gained/lost in division last wk : +0.5 game to PHI, 0 games to ATL
Ground gained/lost in WC race last wk : +0.5 game to SFG, STL, ARI, MIL, -0.5 game to COL, -1.5 games to Pittsburgh.
Since it was All-Star week there wasn't much the Nats could actually do here. 3 games is three games, except when you only play two and even less can happen. The only team to really do well over the weekend was Pittsburgh, who swept the Reds and swept back into WC contention.
There were a bunch of mini-stories to the Nats short weekend so let's take them in order
1) Max and Stras yelled at eachother. My official take is (1) it's nothing and (2) it's more Max's fault. The first note, well guys yell at eachother all the time. There wasn't any physicality to it and they both gave the right words to the media after. I'm not saying there won't be lingering ill will but will it effect the team? I don't think so. The second note isn't popular but the way it looked to me is that an angry Strasburg walked back to the dugout and was rude to someone - Max, the pitching coach, whoever. Max called him out on it. That in itself is fine but to do so in public like seconds after he sits down? Let him blow off some steam for like, a minute!before digging into him. That's not too much to ask.
2) Stras pitched poorly. First game back it could happen. It can't keep happening if the Nats want to win
3) Doolittle is out for weeks. Turns out his foot issue is a stress fracture. The Nats couldn't afford this so they need to have something break their way to make up for it. The easiest path forward would be Kelvin Herrera is a pretty dominant replacement until Doolittle comes back. Do they need another reliever? Yes. The time frame seems like 3-8 weeks so figure a month? That's almost half the time left in the year. The Nats can't assume things will hold up until then.
4) Goodwin was traded to KC for Jacob Condra-Bogan. Goodwin had become very unecessary in an outfield crowded with Eaton, MAT, Bryce, and Soto all healthy and playing. And while you could argue that group is hurt/bad/young enough to warrant extra depth, Goodwin provides no security in providing useful depth. Better than Stevenson, Bautista, et al? Yes. Good, or even ok? No. Condra-Bogan is a live arm. He's not young (23 and just into High-A ball) but he's a great story and more importantly can hit 99 without it seems losing too much control. Orgs now have a bunch of guys like this so it's not as exciting but an arm is an arm
5) Koda Glover was activated, optioned, and threw a scoreless inning in Syracuse. The guy is at least intriguing if healthy and should be good. Can he stay healthy? Right now all we care about is can he stay healthy for 10 weeks.
In short - the Nats got a new problem but Glover, a recalled Solis, or perhaps a fast-tracked Condra-Bogan could help with that. Still I'd add an arm because I don't want three questions. I want one answer.
Next up Milwaukee. Don't get swept. Pretty simple. Anything more than a game is gravy that sets the Nats up nicely for making a move this week.
I think the Nats are in a place where I would say “win with what you have” to the roster and not trade real assets for more relievers. Their likelihood of making playoffs isn’t high enough for that. And the roster clearly has the talent to make the necessary 12-4 type run they need to make. They just need to do it. In other news, Juan Soto is literally going to have a Joey Votto slash line at age 19. And because it’s a meh Nats year I feel like we’re kind of not noticing as much as we should be. This is what once in a generation hitting talents look like. I hope it’s real.
ReplyDeleteWas Goodwin out of options? If not, why not just send him back down to the minors? He could be useful in 2019 or this year if injuries pile up
ReplyDeleteI heard Rizzo wanted to help him out and give him a new chance which he would never have here. Much kudos to Rizzo
DeleteIf the Nationals are going to make a trade for relief help, or in one of our other problem areas (C, maybe SP or 2B), I think that we need to avoid rentals. This season is fringy enough as it is that a slight nudge in the direction of an improved relief corps is not likely to put us over the edge, and top-flight relief rentals tend to cost too much as the deadline approaches. Rather, any moves made should be made with the long-term (or at least the middle-term, say "through 2020" or the like) in mind. The only exception is if Rizzo can wrangle a highly favorable exchange (like if he picks up Ramos for pennies on the dollar because the hamstring injury outweighs Tampa's awareness of Washington's desperate catching situation).
ReplyDeleteAfter every game I now check Soto's game first, then Rendon, then Eaton. After that, there's a second tier of Murphy, Turner, Adams. It's like Harper is already gone. In any case, Soto is a huge story that seems mostly untold.
ReplyDeleteI agree. And is it just me, but to me Soto is the rookie Story of the Year and I really don't think is getting as much press attention as he deserves.
DeleteGoodwin WAS out of options.
ReplyDeleteAnother note on Goodwin: with the team at 49-49, if we get in a situation where Goodwin is playing meaningful innings that can't be replicated by, say, Stevenson, we're already in a really bad place, because it means that at least two of our four-man OF rotation have been hurt. Under those circumstances, I figure Rizzo saw his lack of options and figured turning him into a lottery ticket would be a worthwhile move.
ReplyDeleteUgh. No more Solis, please.
ReplyDeleteI have to agree. I don't know what Everyone likes about Sammy Solis. He seems to blow every opportunity
DeleteMaybe I'm wishcastinghere, but I thought Bryce Harper looked much better against the Braves than he had in weeks. I thought he didn't look quite as overanxious and took what was being given, and capped it off by punishing a mistake late in the game yesterday.
ReplyDeleteI was also encouraged by Soto's two opposite field doubles. By now every team has a detailed scouting report on him, and division rivals are getting to see him for a 2nd and 3rd time. The league is adjusting on him, and I'll take the doubles last night as a good sign that he can adjust back and settle in to, as BxJ mentioned, an incredible Votto-esque batting line.
Ps. the brewers are struggling. Let's go take two out of three. The Nats are going to have to go on a run at some point if they want to play October baseball.
Agree with NavyYardSteve. Milwaukee is 2-8 in their last 10, including that "5 game sweep" by the Pirates. With 3 against Milwaukee and 4 against Miami this week, I want the Nats 3 games over .500 this time next week. 1 loss in each series. That's the bar. If you can't win 5 out of 7 against a schedule like this, then you have no prayer of succeeding in the playoffs. I'd rather the Nats lose and sell than just hover around .500 into August and miss an opportunity to improve the team by buying or selling.
ReplyDelete@Fries, back in 2015, out of the All-Star Break, it seemed like the Nats ran into every team's ace. A 3-game set against Pittburgh? They faced Gerrit Cole. A West coast trip to LA and SF? They got Kershaw and Bumgarner. A 4-game set against Miami? Jose Fernandez was penciled in. I also remember them (understandably) struggling against these ace pitchers, but my thought was "if the Nats can't do anything against them in low-stakes games in August, why do we think they'd do anything against them in October?"
ReplyDeleteThat's kind of how I feel about the Nats today. If they can't take care of a struggling Brewers team and the Marlins, why should I think they'd have a chance against the Cubs or Dodgers or Phillies or D-Backs come October?
I like the Goodwin trade. We get a young controllable arm who has performed well in the lower levels. Right now, we have a plethora of live relief arms in Harrisburg and Potomac that should get looks within the next 2 years; Contra-Bogan is one of them. Goodwin was okay last year and abysmal this season. Call it a wash. He's 27 year old and I don't see him being any better than MAT overall. If he is, it's a close enough comparison that I'm all set with MAT as the 4th OF. Assuming Robles stays and/or Bryce stays, we don't need Goodwin. Plus, the trade builds for the next couple of years, rather than a firesale for a last-ditch effort to win the division, a surge that may prove futile in the end, so I was never for getting any additional pieces for this season. Play with what we have; it should be enough. If it isn't, there's always next year.
ReplyDeleteI did a bit of research. Juan Soto's stats -- a small, but growing sample size -- are much better than Bryce's stats for his age 19 (2012), 20 (2013) and 21 years (2014). Also better than Bryce's stats for 2016 and 2018. I don't know if Soto can keep this up, but at $600K for many years he's producing a lot more WAR per dollar than Bryce produces. Now, if 2015 or 2017 BRYCE were to return, that would be a different story.
ReplyDeleteThe Brewers know how to put the ball in play... sadly in the direction of Zim at a critical moment.
ReplyDeleteShouldn't Zim just retire? He is a liability in the field and at the plate. Also, I'm tired of hearing how someone hits the ball really hard when he always hits it on the ground to shortstop or second base. When I used to play (granted it was in high school) guys who always hit the ball on the ground to short or second were guys who couldn't hit. Maybe it is not all just launch angle.
ReplyDelete