Monday Quickie - Back to Normal (for a moment anyway)

Hey I'm back!

Here is where you might be tempted to say "and so are the Nats!" but really they aren't back so much as they haven't fallen away yet. They did finally manage to hit a goal, albeit a limited one. In 6 games against the Mets and Reds they were able to go 5-1. But what exactly did that gain the Nats? Not much division wise as the Phillies went 5-0 during the same time frame and the Braves 4-1. Let's look at things specifically in our week long view.

8 Week Status
Record: 57-54
Ground gained/lost in division last wk : 0 games to PHI, 0 games to ATL
Ground gained/lost in WC race last wk : +0.5 to STL, +1 SFG, +1.5 MIL, +2 ARI, +2.5 PIT, +3.5 COL


So yeah, division wise the Nats actually haven't moved at all. The Phillies gained some ground on the Nats early in July and since then they've been moving in concert. The Braves lost ground in the first couple weeks of July but have mostly held steady since then. The season is running out the clock on the Nats division chances but it hasn't gotten there yet.

What the Nats did do is gain a bunch of ground in the WC race. SF and PIT are now looking up at the Nats and they are within 4.5 games of the 2nd WC spot with 3 teams between them and the playoffs. That isn't great but considering they were like 7 games out with 5 teams in the way it is a marked improvement.

One of the things about the past few weeks is trying to figure out what is a crucial game. Are they all crucial? It doesn't feel like that. At the same time it doesn't feel like we can write off any game either. This is all right though. The Nats are in a place now where they can't afford to lose ground, but maintaining ground is not season ending. They are also too far out for a gain of a couple games to matter too much. The end result is going into each night where the game could be crucial, but only if the Nats lose and their opponents win. So every night is a potentially, but not necessarily, a big one.

When do they get crucial? Well for H2H games it's big right now as every loss is an opponent win, so that means the big games start tomorrow. Every Braves game and Phillies game from here on out is likely to be a crucial one. As for the games against the other guys - a good rule of thumb is that you can hope to make up a game a week. There are 8 weeks left in the season. When the Nats' games behind numbers (6 and 4.5 for the division and 2nd WC respectively) start matching up with that weeks left number then all games become crucial.   Basically they are one significant losing streak away from every game from here on out being a big one. (and that's no way to play more than a couple weeks of baseball)

With the break, the H2H reality, and the following road trip, we're going to consider this Braves series by itself. The goal is obvious. Win the Series.  Is a split ok? Yeah, reluctantly I'll say probably. What that would do is keep the Nats 4.5 back of the Braves with 7+ weeks left and another H2H series remaining. They could catch the Braves without needing things to go perfect. It also probably keeps them in roughly the same spot for the division and the WC.  That would start pushing the division into the danger zone but with NINE left against Philly, there is a lot of opportunity to make that up, so much so you give a couple games on the "weeks left" rule. So a split is workable, though just barely.

Series preview tomorrow.