What's the future?

After the season the Nats are going to be looking to make moves. They have to as there will be obvious holes to address even if everyone is back. It could be tweaking, they are a better team then they have shown and with health, luck, and some smart moves, could be right back in the division hunt. It could be major, they were pretty old, don't have a lot of youthful answers to problems, and have more key guys coming up for free agency after 2019. Either way the team lands some moves will be made and that got me thinking - what exactly is the future for the Nats at each position?

I'm not even talking about the far off future. Anything beyond 3 years I tend to avoid talking about because that is a long time in sports and a lot can change. I'm just talking about the next two years. Do the Nats have a plan in place for that limited time frame? A little preview of the position specific posts I do at year's end.

First Base -  Not really. Zimm remains a quality bat when healthy, primarily against LHP. Zimm also remains unable to stay healthy. I suppose another Lind/Adams type would be likely but there isn't anything in place. He is up for a buyout after 2019 which the Nats will likely take rather than pay his 18 million dollar salary. So there's a plan here for 2019 but not 2020.

Second Base - No. Difo is not the answer. They haven't begun moving Carter Kieboom, and even if they did he doesn't currently look like he'll be an important piece in the next two seasons. Luis Garcia may be the answer down the road but not in the next two years. No plan

Shortstop - Yes. Turner will play shortstop. He hasn't developed exactly as you'd like (which is probably why they haven't committed to moving Kieboom) but he's improved defensively and has shown you offensive flashes that can be exciting. Plus he's cheap for a good long while.

Third base - No. The plan for 2019 is obvious. Rendon plays. He can hit. He can field. But he becomes a FA after 2019 and will be an injury prone 30 year old in the 2020 season. Are the Nats going to pay for that? Like first base, plan for 2019, none for 2020.

Outfield - Yes! Soto in now in there in pen. Eaton technically has a buy out but his contract is so cheap (9.5 million) that you'd keep him unless he misses 80% of next season too. MAT is still under control. The Nats like Robles. Even without Bryce you can see what the plan would be. Start Soto, Eaton, MAT - work in Robles. See what sticks. So there's a plan in place already.

Catcher - No. Wieters will be gone. Severino showed everyone he can't hit (LIKE I SAID HE WOULD) Kieboom the Older (really - he'll be 28 next year) is not the answer either there's no plan here.

Starting Pitching - No team is going to have a plan in place for all 5 slots for 2 years.* I'd say if you have 3 spots set you are doing very well.  The Nats aren't there and worse, the whole thing could be in chaos in 2020. Let's get the one sure thing out of the way. Max is signed and despite getting up there in years will have to show that he's not worth the ace status. 2019 looks acceptable for the Nats Stras and Roark going 2-3 forming a very good top. The bottom is dicey, with no one banging on the door it's very likely that something like a re-signed Hellickson and Jefry Rodriguez could round out the rotation. But this is kind of par for course in the majors. 2020 is where the trouble starts. Roark is a FA after 2019. Stras has an opt-out. If they both are walking the Nats now need 4 slots filled. In the minors, Seth Romero didn't climb. Wil Crowe has stalled out in AA. Fedde is hurt again and wasn't impressive in his chances. One may have a good enough 2019 to show up in the rotation in 2020 but there's no confidence here for 2020.

Relief pitching - Like Eaton, Doolittle has some buyouts / team options but is cheap enough he should be around. After that it's anyone's guess. Kintzler was pencilled in for 2019 but now is gone. They were hoping guys like Gott and Glover would be dominant by now but both are barely hanging on. There's a couple of ok arms like Miller, Suero, and Grace under control but it's a piecemeal pen right now for the next two years.


So in conclusion

For 2019 the Nats have a plan in place for first, short, third, the outfield, the top 3 rotation spots, and the closer.   That's not too bad and includes a good deal of solid players or better. You can see how they could compete with a little tweaking. You bring in a lot of bullpen help, a solid pitcher, a star at catcher or MI and you are close to reset

For 2020 the Nats have a plan in place for short, the outfield, the top rotation spot and closer. That's not much to work with and is kind of a team that you decide to rebuild not reload.

This seems like a pretty clear cut case and we'll see how the Nats react in the offseason. They could reload with an honest chance at taking back the division in 2019 and remaining competitive beyond that if a few things break their way. They could sell hard taking assets like Roark and Rendon and Doolittle (assuming health) and maybe even Eaton and Strasburg, and try to reset for the Soto/Robles era in 2021 and beyond. There's even a third path. A hard buy for 2019 alone. A lot of one-year deals, early opt-outs, that reload for the chance at the title in 2019, but gives them freedom to tear it all back down if they come up short rather than be stuck with some dead money as they might be if they try and reload. 

If I'm guessing? I think they don't fall easily into any one of these categories. I think Rizzo is just a long term hoarder and he'll bring in some long-term talent through trade or signings next off-season. Not enough to reload, but enough that the team should be ok and could be great if they get lucky.  It'll probably be something that doesn't get them a division in 2019, but maybe a WC and keeps them in that 85ish win range looking to pounce on a fast start. No fire sale. No big reload. No 2019 grasp. Just continued solid but not spectacular roster management.

*Well ok - the 2012 Nats kind of did. It's possible. But it's a rare thing and it's usually actually 4 guys set and one "we'll try our young guys" or "we'll sign a cheap vet" 5th position spot. Which is a plan, but not one where you have any idea what you are getting.