Going into 2012 the Nats were hoping to compete for the playoffs and figure out what next steps would be needed to become a true contender. Instead they ran away with a division title and began a window where they started with a young, cheap, and talented team and could use that to set up move after move. Yesterday, the last of the underpaid and overperforming 2012 squad officially moved into free agency as Bryce Harper played his last game under Nationals control.
We can quibble about Bryce's worth and what he should be paid going forward but it's undeniable that even in his worst seasons he's been underpaid. That gap, between production and payment, is something the Nats have used over the course of 7 seasons to help shore up other positions without spending like the biggest of spenders.
Of course the Nationals have found other young players during this time that will help them in the same way. It would be almost impossible not to. But the discovery has been more typically staggered. Rendon and Roark who will enter free agency after next season. Trea Turner who will be under control thorugh 2022. Robles through 2023. Soto perhaps further than that. There is no great en masse set of talent that was Ramos, Espinosa, Desmond, Bryce, ZNN, Strasburg, Detwiler, Clippard, Stammen, Storen. The Nats are now a typical major league team.
If you look at the record that may suggest bad things for the Nats, because even with that core of talent to plan around the Nats only made the playoffs 3 out of the next 6 years. It's one thing to believe in the 90s-00s Braves method of success, of getting in the playoffs year after year and hoping that you catch a break, it's another to make it work. The Nats didn't. Not only that but they failed in almost ideal circumstances with a division that featured only 4 above .500 teams during this same time frame, easily last in baseball. Little competition. Perfect set-up. While it's hard to say the results are disappointing, it's easy to say that you expected more.
What's next? It feels like the Nats only have one decision to make but actually they have more to deal with than just Bryce's departure. Doolittle's got a team option - 6 million for next year - we assume they'll pick that up as he is almost certain to be worth it. Wieters, Holland, Herrera, Hellickson and Benoit all are FAs. It's not anything the Nats are likely to worry about losing in general but those are guys whose existence needs to be replaced. It's also places, 5th starter, bullpen, catcher, where the internal solutions do not look satisfactory.
But while there are many decisions to make, they do probably hinge on that first one, which is why the Nats need to decide what they want to do with Bryce's contract sooner rather than later. They need to get to the Winter Meetings (early December) with a very strong idea if Bryce is coming back or not, so they can wheel and deal around that decision. Barring getting swept off their feet, Boras will likely hold off Bryce making any sort of deal at the very least until after the playoffs are over and all teams can bid. That means the Nats have a month to get their ducks in a row. It should start with a competitive offer now if they mean to keep him. Doesn't have to be "best and final" at this point, but something that shows the area the Nats are willing to go. If that's outright rejected as not even close then maybe you don't give up (the market may give you a chance you don't think you have) but you start planning with Bryce as your Plan B, not Plan A.
We'll start this week doing the off-season position discussions, maybe a look at how luck factored into this season, take a look at the salary cap/payroll as well.
Good start to the off-season ruminations. I just don't see how the Nats can compete AND sign Bryce, given the amount of money he and Boras think he is worth. Boras got Hosmer 144M from SD and he and JD Martinez were downright disappointed by his massive contract (JD is probablyl worth his big contract if he stays healthy). I think the market correction will continue, even for Bryce. Considering his atrocious D rating this year, his value is down, but he and Boras will explain it away (they had him playing center, which threw him off; he was trying not to get hurt in his walk year, etc.). Bryce's terrible D really, really bothers me when it comes to signing him long-term. But I cut my teeth as a fan on those old Baltimore Orioles teams, and no one played better D than they did. It was a big factor in their success, just as Bryce's poor D contributes to losing.
ReplyDeleteIf it hurts the team to have the Bryce thing up in the air for most of the off-season, they should just move on NOW. I say this because there's no way that Bryce and Boras accept more realistic offers for quite awhile, and that could go on till late February (that was when JD signed). Too many holes to fill to wait that long. Bryce and Boras have sold themselves on the "generational talent" thing, while Betts-Trout-Yelich are knocking it out of the park in all phases, not just walks, homers and OPS.
They should just extend Rendon NOW, and then go after starting pitching, catcher, second base (we really need an Asdrubal Cabrera type to hold things down till Kieboom is ready in 2020 or 2021; counting on Howie is a repeat of this season's mistake with Murphy/Eaton). And, of course, BP!
There were many contributing factors as to why the Nats missed the 2018 playoffs, but here are three major ones:
ReplyDeleteRookie Manager
This one is on ownership. Rizzo wanted Dusty back, but ownership (primarily) must have felt there was something to Dusty's poor playoff record, and decided to gamble with a rookie manager. It didn't pay off in the first year. Davey Martinez didn't do a bad job (he was put in an impossible situation of being a rookie manager but was expected to get the team to the World Series), but Dusty was better. How do I arrive at that conclusion?
For 2016-2018, here are the preseason expected wins, actual expected wins (pythag, which is based on run differential), and actual wins:
2016: Projected Wins: 90 Pythag: 97 Actual: 95
2017: Projected Wins: 92 Pythag: 96 Actual: 97
2018: Projected Wins: 92 Pythag: 90 Actual: 82
Pythag wins are a better indication of overall team performance, and overall team health in 2016 was actually quite good for the vast majority of the season, but 2017 and 2018 provide a good comparison since player health was quite bad both years and the preseason projected wins were exactly the same.
Variance
As alluded to in the previous section, 2018 was a bad year for variance. The Nats were 8 wins under their actual run differential, second only to the Dodgers for most wins under their actual runs scored vs. runs allowed.
Had the Nats' W-L matched their Pythag W-L, they'd be tied for the division lead. Consider: the Braves were an unsustainable 23-12 in 1-run games, while the Nats were 18-24. Regress both teams to around .500 (18-17 for the Braves, and 21-21 for the Nats), and the teams would be tied.
Injuries
In the first half of the season, the Nats were among the league leaders not just in Days Lost to the DL, but also in Roster Effect Rating, which measures the significance of those injuries. Their health would get better in the 2nd half, but they still finished with the fourth-worst injury situation in MLB (https://www.rosterresource.com/mlb-disabled-list-tracker/). The injuries were a major contributor to the poor 1st half, which contributed to the Nats Front Office choosing to moderately sell rather than buy at the deadline.
The Nationals should forget about Harper who is nowhere near as great as he thinks he is, and I kind of suspect that they have. Whoever gives him a $300 million contract will be making a huge mistake, so let someone else make it.
ReplyDeleteInstead, one of their top priorities needs to be going all-out to make Anthony Rendon a National for life. Rendon is easily the most underrated superstar in the game, and has been for years now. And what’s more he causes no drama, needs no special attention and babying, and because of his pleasant demeanor and remarkable humility he isn’t despised by every single opponent and umpire in the game the way Harper is.
Is it safe to assume that the W-L variance is effected heavily by a reliance on power hitting?
ReplyDelete@G Cracka X: the Nats stats (and the pythag data derived from them) are very misleading. The Nats had perhaps 8 - 10 games where they ran up the score -- and their hitting stats. Excluding yesterday, the Nats had very few games where they were blown out. From my perspective, the Nats often became great hitters in games where they had a 4 run margin, and the hitting stats were padded.
ReplyDelete@Anonymous: in a world where resources are not constrained, I'd like to have Bryce return. But there is just no way he can justify the salary he is going to get. Look, Bryce was THIRD on the NATS in OPS. Soto was first, and he's under team control at a tiny salary for years. Rendon was second, and Rendon plays 3rd base and plays it well. He's the guy the Nats have to sign. I'm thinking that Robles can get to an OPS well into the 0.800s -- and he'll be a terrific defensive asset and (maybe) baserunner. Adam Eaton is no slouch either. High batting average, high on-base percentage. The Nats need pitching, a catcher and a 2B. Use the Bryce money to sign Rendon and get the missing pieces.
There were many turning points to the season, but here were three major ones:
ReplyDelete#1: Early June
On June 1st, Edwin Jackson was released by the Nationals. And that was fine. The team was rolling, the starting pitching was excellent, the clamor about Davey had died down, and the Nats were battling an upstart Braves team for 1st place while the Mets had faded fast after a hot start.
Until it wasn't. Jeremy Hellickson would get injured in Atlanta just two days later, and then Stras would get injured on June 8th. Edwin Jackson would go on to pitch 9 games for Oakland with an average game score of 59. The Nats starters (aside from Max) would struggle mightily until Hellickson returned to the lineup and Stras returned from his second injury (right around the time EJax starting fading). They would not catch Atlanta for the rest of the season.
#2: The closers get hurt
Sean Doolittle had another excellent season, but it would again be marred by injury, his fourth straight season with time spent on the DL. At first, it seemed like Doo wouldn't miss much time (just a 'stress reaction' in the toe). But 2 games turned into 2 weeks, which turned into 2 months. His backup, Kelvin Herrera, would go on the DL twice during Doo's absence. Herrera's backup, Ryan Madson, would give up a walkoff grand slam in Chicago and later reveal that he was pitching through back pain that was causing pain to shoot through his leg. At times, the Nats were forced to rely on Greg Holland (acquired after posting a 7.92 ERA in 32 games for the Cardinals), Justin Miller (an unheralded arm who started the season in the minors), and Koda Glover (who spend large amounts of time the past two seasons on the DL) to close games.
#3: The Marlins Trade-Deadline Series
Despite #1 and #2, the Nats were still hanging around the Phillies and Braves at the trade deadline. It all came down to the series in Miami. If the Nats could take 3 out of 4, they'd only be 4 games out of the division lead and likely buyers. Otherwise, they'd probably have to sell.
The Nats took the first two games of the series, 10-3 and 9-1. But the Nats would waste a 7-inning, 1-run gem by Gio and lose the infamous 'If we had that guy on our team...' game 2-1 in 10 innings. A 5-0 loss the next day sealed the fate of the Nats as sellers.
GCX - If you try to fancy up the standings the Braves come out ahead. Pythag, BP adjusted. Nats are in but 2nd WC vs Cubs/Brewers depending.
ReplyDeleteAs for your turning points
I like #1 - Braves series at end of May. Nats had stormed back to take 1 g lead in division seemed poised to put NL East in rearview but Braves won 3 of 4 took back lead and Nats would lack cushion to whether the June injury returns
#2 - Bad Luck Swing - when the Nats lose 4 of 5 by one run around July 4th. Instead of maybe being 3.5 out at ASB and looking for a piece they are 5.5 and trying to see if they can first make a run. They don't. They sell minorly THEN go on a run. At 3.5 maybe they add, and team is intact and better coming out of run.
#3 - The Grand Slam game / STL walk-off - one strike from pulling to 4.5 the Nats lose in dramatic fashion and follow that with a back and forth walk-off loss to the cardinals. They'd reel through next two games, never really being in either despite close scores and wake up with no hope remaining.
weather
ReplyDeleteCould the National's roster strengths and weaknesses be a signal of where the Nationals are leaning? Seems like Rizzo has positioned the roster for Harper's departure. There will be much more friction to keep a spot for Harper than there will be to let him depart. That has to be by design.
ReplyDeleteUnless Boras mostly only hypnotized Ted Lerner, and Mark is less susceptible, the scenarios that Rizzo has currently could be screwed up pretty easily. I hope his plans go well down into the alphabet.
ReplyDeleteIf Harper is still on the market until March, all bets should be off. It would begin to seem likely that the Nats would sign him with a dizzying recipe of opt-outs and deferrals, and then stick Rizzo with the problem of dumping salary for pennies on the dollar.
The most significant turning point of the 2018 season was October 19, 2017.
ReplyDeleteBy Chris Lingebach (October 20, 2017)
The Nationals’ decision to part with Dusty Baker came out of nowhere Friday, eight days after the club’s postseason elimination.
How the organization handled the move, and how they’ve handled every managerial move since Davey Johnson, has made Washington the laughing stock of Major League Baseball, Thom Loverro says.
In an appearance on 106.7 The Fan, Chad Dukes asked Loverro if he’s “ever seen an organization that clearly builds the team the right way, plays the right way, but has so much weirdness surrounding the managerial position.”
“Well, I think it really illustrates the difference between baseball operations and business operation,” Loverro said. “And when it comes to hiring a manager, the final say is on the business operation, the ownership. And while the success of the Nationals gives the Lerners a pass, in terms of ownership dysfunction, believe me, they could share the same room with Dan Snyder in many ways when it comes to ownership dysfunction.”
“The impact that Scott Boras has on this ownership group is one of the biggest jokes in all of baseball,” he said. Boras represents eight Nationals players on the books for 2018 — notably Max Scherzer, Bryce Harper, Stephen Strasburg, Anthony Rendon, Gio Gonzalez and Matt Wieters — and Jayson Werth, whose contract is expiring.
“The Nationals right now, in the industry of baseball — and maybe fans don’t care about this, it’s up to you — but within the industry right now, with a move like this, they’re considered a joke inside their business,” Loverro said.
“Everybody has a reputation within their business — within a radio business, within the newspaper business,” he said. “Right now, within the baseball business, the Nationals, for ownership, they’re considered a joke.”
Perhaps the most significant turning point of the 2018 season was not October 19, 2017, but seven days later on October 26, 2017 when Mike Maddox left the Nationals for the Cardinals.
ReplyDeleteChelsea Jane's article in the Post today did not paint a flattering picture of Lilliquest, the new pitching coach.
[Lilliquist] is the opposite of former pitching coach Mike Maddux in many ways. Lilliquist is more hands-off, the kind of guy who won’t ask a pitcher to tinker unless he feels he needs the help. This strategy can pay off with stubborn pitchers for whom constant tweaks cause inconsistency.
“I think Lilly does an outstanding job as far as letting you be you,” Koda Glover said. “Maddux would have some suggestions and certain things didn’t work for me like he thought they should have . . . and if you feel like you’re tipping pitches or whatever, they do an outstanding job to help, but just let you be you.”
While Maddux bustled around the clubhouse, a step ahead of everyone, mind always spinning, Lilliquist is more relaxed, more laid back, willing to make himself available when the players need him and stay out of their way when they don’t. At times early in the season, particularly when Martinez was peppered with criticism for his handling of the bullpen, communication between Lilliquist, Martinez and bullpen coach Henry Blanco seemed to be a work in progress
Nationals likely let Maddox dangle after Dusty left with no job security in case a new manager insisted on his own pitching coach. Would he have left had they assured him a position?
Gotta say, quoting a moron being interviewed by an asshole doesn't really move the needle for me. If Thom Loverro has the sources to speak to "the industry of baseball," I'll eat my own head.
ReplyDelete