What if the Phillies got what they wanted?

Yesterday a rumor surfaced (from the less than reliable Bob Nightengale) that the Phillies had a plan to put that stupid money to work. Sign Bryce, then sign Kuechel and Kimbrel. Would that make them a super team? Would it even put them over the Nats... or Braves... or Me - ok yes easily over Mets.

As we discussed the Phillies were a sneakily mediocre team last year. Thanks to a strong start and some luck the Phillies maintained the sense of a team ready to make the next step. As late as the end of August they were relevant,sitting at 72-62 (though probably more of a 69-65 squad in talent - they had some luck) But in reality the offense was middling and the pitching staff slowly eroded as the season went on.  when the wheels came off in September and they plummeted to their below .500 finish. They made some minimal changes, trading for As Cab and Ramos but it wasn't enough to make a difference.

Could even a drastic overhaul be enough to turn the tide in 2019?

They've already traded for Jean Segura , signed McCutchen, and inked David Robertson. These are all improvements but mild ones. Segura is the biggest plus, as his above average bat and solid D replaces a position of true weakness for the Phillies with a plus. That could be a 2 game swing. McCutchen is far more average in what he brings but what he importantly does is allow the Phillies to move Hoskins to 1B, set a guy who isn't terrible in the corner, and cycle through fewer of their AAAA talent OFs. Those guys, Williams, Altherr, Herrera, all these guys right now look like decent 3/4s bats with a little issue in the field. That's fine to have as one guy. It's a mess to have as all your guys, which it pretty much was last year (with "I'm a better bat than that but really a first baseman" Hoskins pitching in). It will help but in a "we brought in this middling innings eater 3rd starter" sort of way.  Robertson helps strengthen the pen, giving it a depth that it never had last year as it basically seemed to always be relying on 1-2 guys, whoever that may have been. Robertson also helps out Kapler who didn't seem to handle the pen great last year and probably needs that "traditional closer" to anchor his decisions.

I see improvement. I see 4 maybe 5 games here. But that takes a Phillies squad out of the playoffs and makes them less out of the playoffs. What would these three do?

Bryce - Bryce would immediately replace a "hopefully average" bat with a "at worst above average" one. Defensively he was bad last year, but he probably pushes out the almost as bad Nick Williams. And if you take the 3 year look at it - as you probably should - it's likely he'd be an improvement over Williams.  Nothing mindblowing mind you but Bryce is probably meh in the corner and Nick is probably worse than that. So right off the bat you have a 2-3 win boost. Then there's the side benefit of now only having the best Phillies OF prospect playing. Is it a reborn Herrera - who's probably the best fielder, manning CF? An Altherr proving 2017 was the real him - maybe in a corner with Cutch over to CF? Either way the Phillies don't have to stick with someone not giving them nothing like they do now.  It's a 3-4 plus move easy. And note we're basically taking Bryce as a 130 OPS+ bat here. Consider a better bat and well sky's the limit.

Keuchel is a solid pitcher. He's not entirely reliable (145 & 168 IP in 2017 and 2016) but he's decent and the season he put up last year is about right. He's better than that middling 3rd. He's a solid #2 for nearly any team.  Pitching signings are particularly effective because you aren't knocking out one guy, but the worst of 5. In comes Keuchel out goes one of not Arrieta or Nola. It's a win and a half at least. Plus it gives the Phillies a lefty arm they don't have now.  It's a little harder finding that right pitcher to knock out but Eflin will likely get a chance to stick and there's a good chance legit prospect Sixto Sanchez could see the rotation for good toward the end of the year, so Pivetta/Velasquez will be pushed to prove they should stay.

Kimbrel will make Kapler's job even easier. The Phillies will have that set-up closer (and likely 7-8-9 assuming Seranthony's 2018 wasn't a fluke) and give Kapler the freedom to mess up in less crucial moments. Some managers thrive when trying to optimize pitching. I don't think Kapler is one of those guys. Give another win here.

So I have the Phillies 4.5-5.5 wins better at a minimum if these guys come in and are healthy. Now the 85 win-ish Phillies are 90-91 win team. That's right up there with the Braves and Nats. And again - if Bryce breaks out... forget it. So there's potential for this team to cruise to an East title.


I think looking at the above - if the Phillies are serious about competing this year they need Bryce (or Machado) and Keuchel (or a similar starter) The team was starting at a floor lower than you'd think and are facing two real threat to win 90+ games in the Nats and Braves. That's the minimum.   Add more, like a Kimbrel and they may nudge into favorite status. But do less than that and the Phillies remain on the outside, hoping for busts and breakouts to go their way.

Ok - now to check and make sure no one has signed... Nope ok post!