The question beyond the question

The Rockies are looking to wrap up Nolan Arenando long-term. The Rockies have the money to do that and something like 5/150 isn't out of the question. (Long terms are all now relative - don't be expecting 7+ year contracts for anyone that isn't 22). Arenando has been a great player - a plus bat with very good defense at a position that's traditionally harder to fill than you'd think. While he suffers from the same home/road question that all Rockies players do, most thought falls into the "that's what happens when you play in Colorado" rather than "Home = Fake. Away = Real".  Arenando is a very good to great player going into his age 28 season and should be locked up.

Anthony Rendon has arguably been better than Nolan Arenando. Not quite the pure power hitter than Nolan is, Rendon makes up for it in other ways. Factoring in the parks, over the past two seasons, he's a better hitter for average and shown more patience, while providing superior defense. I'm not going to fight anyone that argues Arenando is better, but it is an argument. And Rendon is also up for free agency after this year. This begs the question - where is Rendon's 5/150 deal?

 Now there are some key differences between the two. Rendon is about a year older. More importantly Arenando has been a relatively healthy player (156 GP or more in each of the last four seasons) while Rendon has not.  Rendon however has been a lot healthier in recent years then to start his career where he lost huge chunks of 2012 and 2015 to injury. His 136 GP last year is not ideal, but you can work around a few missed weeks.

There's just enough that even though you may argue he's better, Rendon might actually walk away with a little less than Nolan.  5/130?  It's been quiet on this front though with the Bryce stuff making for a nice distraction. There are suggestions that the Nats have made efforts on this front, but given how little has been written about it, these are doubtful to be more than probes and bargain deals the Nats have floated to get some idea of where Rendon stands.

I think the talks will heat up once Bryce gets settled, but make no mistake, this is not an either or situation. The Nats could likely sign both, and can almost certainly fit both under the cap with Zimmerman either leaving, or returning on a deal closer to 5 million than the 18 his option stands at in 2020. It shouldn't be dependent on Bryce.

Is Rendon worth it? There are no real trends to suggest not. He's morphed into a little more of a flyball hitter which is probably better. He still hits the ball hard and to all fields. He was more aggressive last year but still made good contact swinging more, so there's more a sense that this is a conscious adjustment rather than an attempt to cover for something beginning to go wrong. He's probably peaked as a defender but he's coming off a high of "maybe best in baseball" so as long as the fall is moderate he'll be worth playing at 3B for a while and still good for nearly all of a long term contract. He's not a particularly good runner, but not a bad one either and still seems about roughly in the same shape as he was when he came in.

What it comes down to is it's a complete health gamble. When healthy you can pencil in Rendon for .300 and the high 20s in homers with excellent D. That's worth it. But unlike Bryce, who can mostly bash his way to all-star level seasons at the plate when he's not 100%, Rendon seems to suffer more, becoming more of an average bat. His defense is still strong though and an average bat who can play excellent third is not without value. It's just not 25 million dollars worth of value.

The Zimm contract may be a deterrent. He's held up decently at the plate but wev'e watched as injuries have forced him to become unable to hold down a job at 3B, and become a half-time bad fielding first baseman. His contract was actually signed off and injury filled year, but like Rendon he had been mostly healthy before that playing 142 and 157 games. It was a different time though - before the team was good, when the Nats still felt the need to keep certain players around or bring certain players in to feel like a winner to fans. There's not that impetus now, after the team has established it can keep a winner on the field.

What am I thinking? Well of course, I'm spending the money that's not mine. In the end you make this deal today. Rendon seems to have turned around early career health issues enough that while maybe he's not an iron man, he can be relied on to be out there for almost what would be considered a normal season. Given that assumption, he should hit about .300 with about mid 20s in homers and with very good defense at third he's a keeper. There is nothing other than the spectre of injury that would make you fell otherwise.