Michael A Taylor got hurt last week and it was serious. You know it was serious because the Nats didn't try to "day-to-day" the public but said he would miss significant time. What exactly that means is up to debate but even with him beginning light work over the weekend the consensus seems to be "not ready for Opening Day".
Having MAT out isn't a huge deal, in fact it may helpfully squash any thoughts the Nats had at playing with Robles' service time. However, it does leave the Nats OF thin. They have three starters - Soto, Robles, Eaton and one 3 position back-up in MAT. Then they have two guys, in Kendrick and Adams, that they'll stick in the OF if need be. While Adams is a true "Put him in RF - hope nothing gets hit to him" guy, Kendrick is actually a decent corner OF replacement... usually. Kendrick played a lot of OF the past few years and was perfectly acceptable. However, now Kendrick himself is working off a mild hamstring injury and given his age and the fact he was already coming back from an injury means you have a hard time believing he'll be healthy AND able to push it in the OF (nor would you want him to)
So what should the Nats do? They could bring in a name with a good bat and simply replace MAT as the 4th OF. But none of the name guys with maybe good bats, say Austin Jackson or Denard Span, want to be 4th OF or can actually play CF. It's a bad fit for what the Nats want. But on the flip side guys who can play CF, even those that can't hit, are not available. Or more honestly guys hanging on as not bad enough offensively to totally take away from their defense, like JaCoby Jones, Li'l Delino Deshields, and Marcel Margot, probably should be 4th OF but are instead starting which means their cost is too high to pick up for what you hope is a part time situation.
But the final alternative is you sit with Andrew Stevenson as the 4th, lean a little more heavily on Robles than planned, and pray nothing goes awry. Is that the the best plan for a contender? I don't think so.
There isn't a perfect answer here. The Nats can't bring in a good MAT replacement for a price that represents the expected value to the Nats. Maybe they can hunt an peck around for someone slightly better than Stevenson and get that person for nothing. Maybe. But more likely they are forced into another gamble. Wait it out or make an imperfect signing. Given that I expect the Nats to do the former. Let's hope Robles can avoid leaning into one and breaking a hand in April.
Frankly I think the best solution to this is “well....our outfield depth and defense took a hit. Let’s shift to preventing runs a different way....and sign Kimbrel or Keuchel....who ARE available...unlike say Keon Broxton.”
ReplyDeleteGo with Stevenson and use him only as an Eaton or Soto late + close defensive sub. Hope that MAT is back in 2-3 weeks.
ReplyDeleteSign Kimbrel.
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ReplyDelete@Harper. Would you agree MAT is likely not back until May? I can’t remember a time when the Nats admitted something was a “significant” injury and it ended up being a surprise not significant injury. This feel like a “no real ramp up for a month” type deal.
ReplyDeleteI'm just curious what types of deals Kimbrel and Keuchel are seeking? Obviously multiple years, but last we hear was Kimbrel wanted $100M and Keuchel's asking price was never disclosed. Assuming they've changed dramatically, I'd be curious to know what it is now, seeing as Opening Day is less than two weeks away?
ReplyDeleteStevenson will be fine for the month or less Taylor is out. Nobody currently available changes the math that much, it's all .5 wins or less. Stevenson has no bat but he's an adequate to good fielder.
ReplyDeleteBigger concern to me anyway is Kendrick.
ReplyDelete@Ole PBN. I’m just guessing. (This isn’t based on much besides Fangraphs does a sort of educated guessing of free agents and nailed Harper’s to within 1 year and 10m). For Keuchel, I bet he realistically wants like 4 yrs, 75-80 mil. I’m guessing Kimbrel will have dropped to asking for 4 yrs, 60....but I bet not many people will want to give him more than 3 years? I would sign either on 3 year deals (assuming Kimbrel would be like 15-16 AAV and Keuchel would be 19-20 AAV).
ReplyDeleteThanks Bx. I tend to agree - and it appears teams are wary of going beyond that 2yr mark for Keuchel, as that takes him to into his age 33 season. He's probably best suited for a 1yr deal, to bet on himself, and hit the market next year. Then again, teams also don't want that short a deal as it'll cost them a draft pick.
ReplyDeleteAs for Kimbrel, I don't know how he's still available. I think fans/teams are reading too much into his ALCS meltdown from last year. He's the best closer over the past decade and still is a shutdown force at the back of any pen. Wish the Nats would dish out for him...
BX / Ole - that's my take too I think there's definitely a 2 year deal out there for him. Maybe a three but he expected to pull out a 5 and definitely wants a 4.
ReplyDeleteKimbrel has to be stuck on a Chapman type (5/86) deal, does he not? Because I have to think someone out there has offered something like 4/70. I mean he's historically great and wanting to be recognized as such I get but that's not there.
@Harper. I think I can sympathize with folks who think he’s more risky than Chapman at his FA year. Not only the age but also his second half and postseason were legitimately concerning, which becomes more concerning when somebody is aging. That said, his velocity didn’t seem to dip that’s much. I don’t think anybody is giving him a 5 year deal. I think he will get a 3 (with higher AAV) or 4/70 type deal. Yeah he’s been better than chapman and Jansen over the course of his career but the reality is the second half of his career and in Boston he’s been no better than them and plus he’s holder and has the recency problem. That plus FOs being more antsy about long term deals means he will get fewer years I think.
DeleteDo I love the idea of MAT's injury sending people into a panic? Yes, yes I do.
ReplyDeleteStevenson is fine. This is not Moises Sierra hitting 5th for weeks, this is "definitely play Robles which should have been the plan all along + slight dropoff to Stevenson as a defensive backup/spot start for the first 4-6 weeks" 20% more Robles + 20% more Stevenson = Zero-Sum game that we can all live with. That's just math folks.
If one of the remaining OFs goes down, then panic.
Cannot believe Gio is signing a minor league deal. Maybe his pride wouldnt let him sign that in Washington? He would have been nice 5.
ReplyDeleteMark Malancon was a shut down closer with the Pirates and the Nats. He was a hot property when he hit the free agent market. People complained when the Nats let him go and SF got him for north of 60M on a four year deal. Great signing.
ReplyDeleteKimbrel is better, no doubt, but injuries happen. If he isn't over priced someone would have snapped him up.
Maybe the market has changed for great relievers and you can only get a three deal at 45M or you can hold out for what you think you are worth and watch baseball on the big screen at home.
SF fans thought the MM signing was fantastic at the time. Today they have a different view. Boston knows Kimbrel better than any team yet they aren't interested in signing him. Who knows maybe the Phantics will pick him up to go with Bryce.
LOL. this from MLB.com. DOES ANYONE ELSE HERE AGREE WITH THIS OPTIMISM? I MUST SAY IT IS EXCITING!
ReplyDelete5) Is it possible the Nationals could lose Bryce Harper and still have the best team they’ve ever had?
How about we not connect those dots? To answer the question, though, yes, this is going to be the best Nationals team ever. They’re a team without a weakness. Their rotation -- the one with Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg and Patrick Corbin at the top -- could be baseball’s best. If top prospect Victor Robles is what the Nats think he is and if Adam Eaton and Ryan Zimmerman stay healthy, the offense will be terrific. Just to check other boxes, the Nationals have a very good defense, a solid bullpen and an optimistic clubhouse vibe.
They have a “very good defense and solid bullpen”? I will go with average on both?
ReplyDeletewe're going to hit homers with optimism
ReplyDeleteTrout bests Harper's contract by $100 million. Harper held the title of having the largest contract for less than a month. It's still mind-boggling to me that he chose 13 years in Philly over 12 years in SF for comparable money. The only way to rationalize the decision in my mind is that Bryce cared about signing a record deal, which Philly was offering but SF (apparently) was not. It was, to me, a stupid thing to care about three weeks ago. It looks even more stupid now that it took a very short time for his "record" to be absolutely shattered.
ReplyDeleteI'm sure Bryce will enjoy his $330 million. I'm equally sure he won't enjoy his decade and a half in a crappy city, especially given the other, better choices he could have made but did not.
Well, there goes the dream of signing Trout to replace Eaton in two years!
ReplyDeleteOn the other hand, I much prefer Trout hanging out being irrelevant in Anaheim instead of signing with a team that's a rival to the Nats or a team that I generally dislike. So that works. (What's truly absurd is, the contract is for 12 years and $430M per reports, and if we value a win at $7-8M it's entirely possible that barring injury he earns the whole thing back in six years and anything he gives in the back half of the contract is pure surplus value. It's the largest contract in the history of the sport and it feels like he gave them a hometown discount!)
Gio getting $3M with $300k per start isnt awful as long as they dont drop him once their rotation is healthy
ReplyDeleteDoes anyone else think this contract is meant to show up Harper? It's exactly $100 million more than Harper's. Also, I agree with the idea that Harper signed with Philly strictly to beat Stanton's deal and less than a month later it doesn't matter. Pretty crappy reason to spend 13 years in Philly. Final question - is it odd that Harper has not acknowledged DC or its fans at all? No thank you note on social media. No newspaper ad. Just Harper complaining about the Nats last offer - I mean, who wants someone to pay them $100 million until they are 60. His interview article on ESPN is really a strange read. His wife answers questions for him. Harper says, "Just don't say I had to grow up." Anyway, it is ironic that Trout beat his contract by $100 million.
ReplyDeleteJay, to be fair, if made a really cute Instagram post at the close of the season, like a collage of sorts waving to our fans. You didn't see this? It got like a craaaazy amount of "likes."
ReplyDeleteOkay, just threw up in my mouth a little bit. Here's the skinny: if anything it just validates my current feelings towards him. If he were a class act, as you suggest he should be, then it would make this hurt more. But I find the whole thing to be "excellent" (doing my best Mr. Burns impersonation). The whole chain of events, culminating in him selling Philly to Trout and then Trout turning around and taking a huge dump all over Bryce's record contract - all the while choosing to stay with the team that drafted him (something Bryce admired about Jeter and Cal during his own early Nats days, hmmm?) - thus turning down Bryce's "super team" idea. I love every bit of it.
But in all, how unhappy can a $330M baseball be? He'll be fine... financially. I can't wait for those fans to lose it on him when he underperforms.
tbf, Bryce did acknowledge Nats fans when he said he wanted to "bring a title to DC"...I just think it was just something he had rehearsed in preparation for getting a legit offer from the Lerners.
ReplyDeleteKubla,300m for ten seasons is a legit offer. The irony is if he and his agent were wulling to negotiate, they could have had the same money in November than waiting 4 months for a lower AAV
ReplyDeleteRockies extend Arenado (28) to 8yr/$260M - $32.5M AAV
ReplyDeleteAstros extend Altuve (29) to 5yr/$151M - $30.2M AAV
Astros extend Bregman (25) to 6yr/$100M - $16.6M AAV
Where do this place Rendon (29) and Nats as they try to work out an extension. I would say an honest assessment puts Rendon below Arenado and somewhere in between Altuve and Bregman (probably closer to Altuve). Perhaps $25M AAV over 5 years? More than that?
@Ole PBN - has to be higher than Bregman which only bought out 2 FA years. Altuve also had one year under contract at $6.5M which was replaced with the deal you noted. So Rendon is probably above both of those deals or at least at Altuve's
ReplyDelete