The Nats were a 90 win team last year. That was with significant offensive injuries, but also with the emergence of a ROY. The starting pitching wasn’t great, but it was healthy. The relief pitching wasn’t good but wasn’t as bad as you thought. Looking back I’d say the Nats underperformed but not by much.
Did they get better? I would argue that even losing Bryce maybe they did but the pen and rotation depth remain shallow and the bench depth is starting shallow thanks to injury. So I’m hesitant to give them more than a game more. A 93 win team in a vacuum
But they don’t play in a vacuum. Try play in the NL East where the Phillies and Mets got (much) better and the Braves won the division last year. A 93 win team in say... the NL West is not a 93 win team in the NL East (but probably a near 100 win team in the AL Central)
I’ll peg the Nats then at 90 wins again. Is it good enough to win the division? Maybe. But I’ll say one team squeaks by them, one team they squeak by and one team crashes. I’ll say Mets, Phillies, Braves in that order. Do the Nats get the WC? I’ll say yes to that.
And as always I don’t do playoffs.
Whats the matter Harper? No playoffs? Where are your balls? I always knew my little brother was secretly a wuss. Why don't you take a class on economics and come talk to me when you're a real man. No wonder mom coddled you all those years...
ReplyDelete(channeling ssln since we haven't seen him in a while)
Harper for Baseball Writer's Hall of Fame
ReplyDelete@Anon 6:36: Predictions are an amusing diversion for those who lack the brains to comprehend the truth. Superior intellects, such as ssln and myself, know that baseball is a simple game, governed by the immutable laws of economics. (/sn)
ReplyDeleteHappy Opening Day everyone!!!
Aaaaah, Opening Day - FINALLY!!! Let's get ready to rumble!!!
ReplyDeleteBAAAAAAAAAASEBAAAAAALLLLLLLLL!!!11!1!!1
ReplyDeleteI think 90 wins is a decent prediction. I think Philly will underperform this year, but I'm basing that mostly on feelz.
For the Mets, as always, a lot will depend on pitcher health. How many starts until Thor is out again?
As long as the phils don't make the playoffs and we do I'll be satisfied.
ReplyDeleteCould be a Nats / Phil’s WC in my scenario. (Though likely someone else / Nats)
ReplyDeleteDave Martinez off to another banner start
ReplyDeleteJWLumley - I thought it a banner start for Scherzer. Couple of 3-2 batters and a 'tater.
ReplyDeleteOf course, you bring in your trusty bullpen to give up another run and it's par for the course.
They really, really need a manager. Really.
ReplyDeleteI missed it, what was ol' Davey up to today?
ReplyDeleteNot sure how Davey screwed up--should he have left Scherzer in for Alonso?
ReplyDeleteThey lost for the same reason they always lose: stupid baserunning mistakes, and an inability to put the ball in play.
@Mr. T - Not that he shouldn't have pulled Scherzer. Just that I'm pissed that the pen, any pen, gives up a run when I think they should be better than that.
ReplyDeleteI followed a feed on mlb.com so didn't watch, or listen to the game. I think you're right about the inability to put the ball into play. Didn't see, or follow, closely enough to know about the running mistakes. (Had work to do so followed off and on.)
Why would you not want Matt Adams or some non-pitcher to bat in the 7th? Why run a guy out there who's thrown 94 pitches in the 8th instead of starting a reliever with a fresh inning? Why pitch to the only good hitter on the Mets? That's why ole Davey's off to a banner start.
ReplyDelete@JW
ReplyDeleteyou can't fault Davey for riding Max for 1 more inning. as you said, he was only at 94 pitches and the bullpen is...suspect.
As for pitching to Cano, did you really want to add another baserunner when the bullpen is what it is?
Umm . . . the Nats didn't score any runs. A 1-0 loss isn't any better than a 2-0 loss. Or is it?
ReplyDeleteSome good signs (optimism): Trea is obviously gonna steal like 80 bases this year. Robles looks great in field and plate. He made a dumb baserunning error. Hopefully fewer of those as he learns. And Max was great. Honesty what concerns me the most is Davey is just a moron. Why are you playing Zim over Adams against a RHP? He can’t hit RHPs and left like 6 people on base. And then, I’m sorry but when you’re losing, you can’t let you pitcher hit in the hopes he can get 1 or 2 more outs. Davey justified this by saying “I wanted to give him the chance to get the W.” HOW MANY MORE TIMES DO WE HAVE TO HEAR THIS CRAP. Max won 18 games last year and DeGrom won 10. Did it help him be recognized as superior? Pitcher Wins mean nothing. Literally nothing. And even worse, our manager is making game decisions based on it. Please stop.
ReplyDeleteThis. If he wanted to give Scherzer a chance for the W, why did he pull him with 2 outs on Alonso, who K'd at least twice earlier. If you say it's out of respect to the ROOKIE'S alleged power, than why do you pitch to their best player in Cano w/ RISP?
ReplyDeleteNot saying pinching Scherzer for a professional AB would have won the game, but not doing it hurt more than it helped.
It was just plain stupid to leave Max in the game to bat in the bottom of the 7th. The Nats needed a run. Hitting against Lugo was possibly their best chance. Matt Adams was ready to go. There is no need to burn out Max in the first game of the year. The entire bullpen is fresh, with lots of days off to rest up. Why not bring in T. Rosenthal in the 8th? And, FWIW, even if Max gets on first base, don't the Nats pinch run for him? So, basically, the Nats were saying: we'll just give the Mets the third out of the inning so that Max can pitch into the 8th. I defended Davey last year. No more.
ReplyDeleteI defended Davey last year also. I’m done with that if he keeps it up.
ReplyDeleteAlright I'm going to "try" to defend Davey here *dodges rotten tomatoes"
ReplyDeleteThere were 2 outs in the 7th. Yes, I know Adams can hit one out of the park, but if Adams pinch hits there, (Mickey) Calloway likely brings in Justin Wilson. Now I would STILL take that matchup over Max vs. Lugo, but there were 2 outs, so the odds of getting a rally going were slim, and if Adams does reach base via anything but a home run he's likely out for a pinch runner since he would be the tying run, so that's 2 bench players wasted right there. Plus, you have to look at the top of the next inning: would you rather have Max pitching at let's say 80% over one of the shitty bullpen guys?? I sure would. It's game 1 I don't think it was that horrible. Let me get out of here before I get more tomatoes thrown at me...
...what I CAN'T defend him for was taking him out for Alonzo. What a stupid, idiotic decision that was. He had just struck out Nimmo, or whoever the Mets leadoff batter was for the second out of the inning, surely he can Pete Alonso out for a 3rd. I don't think they end up winning the game anyway because they couldn't hit their way out of a paper bag today, but I can almost guarantee that the second Mets run doesn't score if Scherzer is still in the game. You let him bat in the 7th to either: A) finish the 8th inning or B) until Cano comes up. Why the hell does Davey think Alonso is Alex Rodriguez or something?? Scherzer had struck him out 2 ****ing times and there's 2 outs, leave him the hell in the game!!!!
I agree that defending Davey this year is no longer an option. I agree that allowing Max to hit in the 7th was dumb. Also, allowing one of the worst pitchers in the bullpen face their best hitter was dumb. His argument for allowing Grace to face Cano was that Grace's sinker would keep it on the ground. Blah, blah, blah. It was a bad move in my opinion. Allowing Scherzer to pitch into the 8th inning and throw 109 pitches on opening day is a bad move as well. They could have come back and won and Max could have got the "W" and him pitching into the 8th with 30 starts to go for the year was still a dumb move. The biggest problem in my opinion is that he used Justin Miller and Matt Grace in spots where he shouldn't have but more importantly he warmed but did not use most of the rest of the bullpen. He warmed up Sipp, Rosenthal, and Doolittle. He used Barraclough for the 9th. So he used everyone in the bullpen except Hellickson and Suero in a game our starter went 7 2/3. Stop and think about that for a minute. He managed to burn 6 guys for 7 outs. If you are going to warm up any of the guys in the "A" bullpen then they should pitch. Warming them up counts the same in usage (not appearances obviously). I know they have a day off today, but it is the same dumb stuff he did last year. Hopefully, he can figure it out bc we're stuck with him for the foreseeable future.
ReplyDeleteIt is nice to see that I can have an impact on the blog even when I'm not posting. As I predicted, Kimbrel is home watching baseball on the big screen as the season begins.
ReplyDeleteBaseball economics have changed but apparently no one has noticed it. Bryce takes 23% less than Harper predicts and he proclaims he won the discussion. You guys think Kimbrel is worth 70M for four years. Dreaming old dreams.
Ninety wins for the Nats? Probably another dream but we will see how it unfolds?
Also, I know it was only one game, but Brian Dozier did not look good at all at the plate. It's not just that he made outs, but the bat looked slow, timing seemed off, for a guy with a good eye he also chased a number of pitches and I was already wondering how soon we might see Carter Kieboom. I liked the signing, but for some guys, when it goes, it goes. Hope he's not one of those.
ReplyDeleteZim hit DeGrom's pitch hard directly to third in the first with Turner and Soto on - that was a bit of babip bad luck or it would have been a 2-out RBI. Robles being too far off third was the real boner - I guess fundamentals are impossible to teach anymore. You'd have Soto up with guys on with any average baserunning. Possibly a lead then. It looks like the same crap as last year honestly.
ReplyDeleteI will take the under. I think Nats win 88 and still are in competition for second wild card the last week. Division will be really tough some days.
ReplyDelete