Look I said it at the time. The Nats, after letting Dusty go, could do one (or both) of two things.
They could :
1. Hire a manager with a track record of getting to the playoffs and succeeding, or
2. They could hire a manager with no track record, hand him a foolproof team, and hope he can win in the playoffs by skill or luck
They chose to do neither. They hired a manager with no track record in Davey, but they handed him a team that wasn't foolproof. It was arguably the best put together Nats team going into the season (A bullpen with three arms you paid for that should be good? I'm fainting) but it still wasn't foolproof. The depth in the pen wasn't there, nor was the lights-out no thinking finish. The lack of depth meant the "two-time Hellickson" plan would be contingent on nothing going wrong with the first 4, a risky proposition with any rotation even if the Nats were probably the best set-up for that a team can be. They didn't fix catcher at all leaving a huge hole. They didn't bring in a 4th OF when it seemed like a decent bet they could need two at some point of the year given the injury and performance history of the players involved. Pretty much all these came to roost on Davey and he didn't handle it.
This year they went in with a worse team. So two years removed from Dusty coming one game from winning the Nats first playoffs series they had a worse team with a worse manager by design. The results are part of why we are seeing what we are seeing.
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ReplyDeleteMaybe it's just me, but if I hold a meeting with my pitchers and emphasize they should only get beat by my best pitch, and then that mantra is repeated by coaches, players and announcers over and over, I might just sit on the cutter with two strikes if I'm Carlos Gomez.
ReplyDeleteLet's Go Mets!!!
ReplyDeleteGo away Mutz
DeleteYou know Harper sometimes you actually say something that is penetrating and precise but you don't even know you are doing it. Your comment was "they have a worse team with a worse manager by design."
ReplyDeleteOkay, so let's analyze this statement because it tells you a lot about how Rizzo is thinking or should be thinking. He thought he had put together a contending club but we all know he failed. So how do you make lemonade out of this mess of lemons? You look to the future and forget about this year. How do you do that? You tank. In this case tanking is simple and undetectable. We have a historically bad bullpen so keep trotting them out there every night and you will keep losing. We have the worst manager in baseball so keep him and watch him blow games we should have won. Right now we have a top five pick in next year's draft. Maybe we can move into the top three. Davey can help you do this and you can't be accused of tanking because everyone knows Davey is incompetent. Besides if you fire him you have to pay him so keep the loser because that is what he does best.
Most of you have forgotten that we lucked into Stras because Seattle won its last three games and we lost our last three. Let's not make the same mistake the Mariners made. Keep Davey.
ssln - how good is the draft this year?
ReplyDeletessln - I see where you're coming from, but Davey could get a pitcher hurt due to bullpen mismanagement and the first pick the MLB draft is not like having the first pick in basketball or football. Also, if the Nats are going to try to get another manager on the cheap--and we all know they are--wouldn't the second half of the season be a good time to give LeCroy or someone else a chance to see how they do. I mean Anthony Rendon is the best pick the Nats made during the Rizzo era. He's a better player than both Harper and Strasburg and he wasn't a #1 pick. Also, the Nats passed on Mike Trout to pick Strasburg (so did 24 other teams), who wound up being probably the 3rd or 4th best player in that draft.
ReplyDeleteThis year, the Nats will pick 17th. Given the current team and what they will look like once they start selling pieces, what's the best they could do this year? .500 maybe, but more likely they're going to be 5-10 games under .500 even if they play well the rest of the way so they're probably going to have a top 10 pick to go with this year's #17 pick. Which is still plenty to work with if you can either identify or at least disqualify a managerial candidate.
JW - I don't think Strasburg is a bust as a #1 pick (not saying that you're asserting this), just a lot of people scoff at the guy. His health has limited him, sure, but when he's been on the mound, he'd be an ace for most teams. I don't regret that pick and I think every single team would have taken him at that position too. Your point about Trout is a good one in that a lot of teams missed on him as well. Can you blame them? Maybe. But not the Nats for taking a generational pitcher with more hype than we may have ever seen. We've had some late-first round picks since then and the players we could have drafted were:
ReplyDelete2012 (16th overall pick): Lucas Giolito. We could have taken Corey Seager (18th LAD), Michael Wacha (19th STL), or Marcus Stroman (22nd TOR)
2013 (68th overall, gave NYY our 33rd pick): Jake Johansen. At #33, I'm not really seeing anyone we could have taken. Sean Menaea?
2014 (18th overall pick): Erick Fedde. We could have taken Matt Chapman (25th OAK), Michael Kopech (33rd BOS)? Alex Verdugo (62nd LAD)? FYI - with Rizzo getting Trea Turner (13th SDP that same year), it covers for Fedde not working out. 2 points for Rizzo.
2015 (58th overall): Andrew Stevenson. We could have taken A.J. Minter (75th ATL)?
2016 (28th/29th overall): Carter Kieboom/Dane Dunning. We could have taken Pete Alonso (64th NYM)?
After that Rendon draft, I don't know where Rizzo seriously screwed up. Every pick after the second round is a guess. I think its more on his player development, and less on who he picked. Regardless, I'm in agreement with assigning blame to him for this, but it's difficult to predict what should have happened with a phantom player in later rounds
JW - yeah way too hard on the Strasburg pick. He was a consensus #1 and he's given the team multiple all-star seasons and an in on signing him long term, which they did. Every team would take that from a #1 pick.
ReplyDelete@ Harper Not my point at all that the Strasburg pick was a bad one, just that the best pick in the draft was the 25th selection, so tanking may not be a good strategy.
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ReplyDelete