Nats fans are taking great glee in the struggles of departed star Bryce Harper. He's had a disappointing start* to his Phillies career (current' .219 / .370 / .432) and given the completely average play of Andrew McCutchen and the "OH DEAR GOD LOOK AWAY" play from any other outfielder, the Phillies have an OF that ranks among the worst in the National League.
But while you are snarking out in joy, right above them is a team that you might recognize. A team that was supposed to be lead by their OF to a playoff spot this season. You might have seen them play in Nationals Park, once, twice, or 81 times last year. Yes the Nationals outfield this year has rated out as somewhere around 12th best in the National League
Victor Robles has been the best of the bunch and he hasn't exactly lit the world on fire. He strikes out too much (27.6%) and never walks (4.3%!) and his defense, which by physical ability could be better than MAT, is in fact, not better than MAT**. There's some instinct thing he doesn't have which means he doesn't take full advantage of those gifts. But he's showing far more pop than expected (leads the Nats in HRs) and CF is a hard position to fill, so the little compromises at the plate and in the field currently means in the NL*** the above description makes him an average CF.
Adam Eaton is rapidly losing any positive ability. When the Nats got him he was kind of a scaled down Werth at the plate in that he did a little bit of everything. It was all a step or two down from Jayson but in that same vein - he could hit for average, he walked a little, he was a solid baserunner, and he had just enough sneaky pop to make him a good offensive player. Meanwhile he was putting up great corner OF D. But multiple injuries and age have sapped his power, going from an expected 30 2B, 15 HR guy to a 20 doubles, 10 HR type. Tweak the average down a bit, get challenged more so you walk a less - suddenly you are not good anymore. This could still work if he was putting up plus numbers in the field but he's now a negative there. It could just be a slow start and an average pick-up could happen, but the fielding and power losses are here to stay. At best he'll end up average, right now he's just not a good player, a fourth OF masquerading as a starter.
So with rookie Robles working out kinks and Eaton on a decline, it's more imperative than expected that Soto follow-up his near ROY campaign with something great. Instead he's arguably been the most disappointing of the three. Worst case Bryce is what you are seeing in Philly, if his defense had kept being terrible. Well I'm sorry to say... that's kind of what's going on with Soto right now. Early on the diagnosis was simple - they weren't giving him fastballs. But as the season progressed they've fed him more and more, just not where he likes them (up in the zone) and they've figured out how to set him up to miss better as his K rate is way up.
He's only 20 so if you stopped the season right now and said this was Soto's year (.235 with 30 homers, 100 walks but 200 Ks) I'd say that's disappointing but it's still a decent season and he can grow on it. Bryce, for his youth, isn't going to get better. He may DO better - his history suggests it - but he won't get better. Juan can. But there's another issue here beyond the slow start. Soto is BAD in the field. Last year wasn't a fluke. He's not good. He's not getting better. He maybe can't play the OF? Like I mean Adam Dunn played the OF. But for Juan Soto at 20 to already looks like a guy that you say "Oh you gotta move this guy" to me doesn't even make me feel good about moving him to first. Juan Soto is probably a DH. Like now.
This isn't unexpected, but it is a problem. The idea of bad defense Soto taking up a corner OF spot was always OK because you had ++ defense Robles in CF helping him out, because + defense Eaton in RF didn't need it. Now it's closer to average defense Robles, trying to cover for bad defense Eaton, or really trying to cover for terrible defense Soto while Eaton is left to fend for himself. The Nationals wake up in Mid May with the second worst defensive OF in baseball so far this year.
I'm both ok with and worried about the long run here. I'm ok, because given their youth I fully expect Robles to be a ML worthy OF (though maybe not a CF?) and Soto to hit better, probably much. Maybe Robles isn't the All-Star defender and Soto isn't the every year MVP bat, but two major league players under control through 2024? You can work with that. I'm worried though because these guys weren't supposed to be just pieces. They were supposed to be the bedrock you build on. Soto was supposed to be that MVP type, Robles that All-Star so the Nats could put some money elsewhere to plug holes, not a TON of money out there to bring in a star bat. If Robles and Soto lean toward the former instead of the latter, I'm not convinced the Nats will outlay the money necessary to keep the offense humming while at the same time continuing to cover for the lack of any real starting pitching prospects.
At the very least the Nats NEED Rendon back. He's a proven bat, if not one proven to give you three years in a row. They may need more.
*If you are a Phillies fans for some reason reading this blog - it isn't ALL bad. He still is walking enough to be a positive offensive presence. His defense has rated as good this year, and while I don't believe that, it means that what I also didn't believe - the OMG WORST FIELDER EVER scare from last year - was in fact nothing, and he should probably put up middling, don't have to replace him d, in the corner for a few years. Also you are in first place. You wanted Bryce and you wanted to be in first so here you are!
**I still think Nats fans don't get that prime MAT was one of the best CF in the game. Not THE best, but probably the best of the rest after you got past the truly special players.
*** You could probably argue that the top 5 CFs are in the AL.
Harper, I went down an Aerosmith rabbithole the other day in response to your post. They are definitely terrible, but I still have a soft spot for those '90s ballads because I was a teenager, and, well, Alicia Silverstone. But that led me to Guns & Roses, which got me to thinking about comparisons between the two. And there really is no comparison! Slash>>>>>Joe Perry. Dizzy Reed is an awesome keyboard player--and can you even name a third guy in Aerosmith?? Axl had some cheesy songs, and November Rain is pretty overrated, but Estranged and Civil War are outstanding. IMO the only Aerosmith song that can hold a candle to them is Sweet Emotion, and maybe Walk This Way (but they're kinda the same song).
ReplyDeleteSorry for being off-topic. The Nats make me sad.
Mr T - I'm actually not much a music guy so I'm out of my element much beyond "these guys rock/suck!" opinions. But no I can't name a 3rd Aerosmith member and I can name a 3rd GNR member (maybe 4) though that's because of the "You Could Be Mine" video more than intimate band knowledge. Growing up it seemed like GNR was a force that broke things open. Aerosmith was one of the bands that took advantage of that the best. I know it's probably more complicated than that.
ReplyDeleteNats are sad
Aerosmith? Guns 'n' Roses? The charmless Alicia Silverstone?
ReplyDeleteWhat on earth is going on?
charmless Alicia Silverstone?!??! Someone is unfamiliar with her magnum opus "BRACEFACE"
ReplyDeleteAt this point in his career, Soto is better than Bryce was at mid-way through 2013. Where was the panic on Bryce? He was supposed to be the bedrock that we build on. He had one good year and the rest average-to slightly-above average years. Sound much more like a "piece" to me. Soto still has time to turn this around, and his maturity at the plate (last season) showed that. But I'll admit, he looks like a different hitter this year. A lost one at that.
ReplyDeleteKind of like Bryce did at many times in his Nats tenure.
@Ole PBN. Uh no. This is wildly incorrect, unless you’re strictly talking about offense. Harper had a better rookie year by WAR and may have a better 2nd year by WAR.
DeleteAt this point, shouldn't the Nats be looking a full rebuild including restocking the farm system, i.e., not being able to compete for a championship again until 2023 at the earliest. In addition to trying to compete with the Phillies who have a better everyday line-up than the Nats, the Braves also have a better and younger team than the Nats plus what is supposed to be one of the best farm systems than the Nats. How do the Nats compete with the Braves in 2020, 2021 and 2022 given this situation?
ReplyDeleteIt sucks to be a DC sports fan these days, because Nats, Redskins and Wizards all need to do a rebuild with no recent championship for any of these teams to soften the blow (At least when the Capitals eventually do a rebuild, they will have at least 1 Stanley Cup Championship to show for sticking with a veteran team).
The above being said, I would rather follow a bad young rebuilding Nats team with the hope that the team might compete for a championship again someday, than the current mediocre or worse Nats team that has no hope of competing for a championship.
@BorninDC. I don’t see a reason a Nats rebuild would take 4 full years. That’s a LONG rebuild, like Astros/Cubs length. Usually team rebuilds take 4+ when the team has no young talent and few assets. The Nats literally have high prospects/solid rookie types at possibly 4 everyday positions as well as 3 elite starting pitcher assets, an elite closer asset, and an elite 3B (expiring) asset. That’s not the same thing as what, for example, the Phillies had in 2013 or the Marlins had last year, or the Astros originally had (nothing basically, or close to nothing). If the Nats build around a talent group of Soto/Robles/Turner/Kieboom, all of whom are either great, good, or promising for their age (I think it would make sense to try to extend Turner, rather than flip him), and flip the other assets they have (this would include dangling Max, Stras, Doolittle, Rendon, one or both of the catchers, even Corbin perhaps) for prospects relatively close to the majors, they should** be able to jump-start a slightly quicker rebuild on the fly (in theory). Of course things don’t always work out, but the Nats have virtually zero bad contracts that will be on the books after this year and a decent amount of talent to start with. It’s not unreasonable that if they get going starting at the deadline, they can try to be competitive again in 2021 (maybe optimistic) or 2022 (that would require them to be smart though, draft and trade well, and not make mistakes).
DeleteHey, the Nats could pull off a 10 game winning streak. Its happened before with worse teams.
ReplyDeleteBut until they do (and it doesn't look like they will, unfortunately), I'll check Bryce's performance on a weekly basis.
In the big picture, it helps that Philadelphia is stuck with that albatross contract. Eventually (or sooner) it will weigh them down.
If the Lerners had ponied up for Harper, we'd be sitting in 4th place like we are now and moaning on this forum about what a bad deal we got. Let Philly fans moan.
Soto may be destined to be a DH, but if I remember correctly, it's likely that the NL will have a DH in the next several years, after the next CBA. So, assuming he remains a good to great hitter, he'll fit in just fine. Just not in the outfield.
ReplyDeleteI knew they were bad, but I didn't realize the Nats are now -29 in run differential. If I remember the discussion here a few weeks ago, this must mean there is NO hope for them!!
ReplyDeleteSubtracting the justification for the trades at the time, it's pretty crazy to look at all we've given up in pursuit of a World Series title:
ReplyDelete2014: we gave up Robbie Ray+ for Doug Fister. Doug was our best pitcher that year, but it resulted in nothing.
2015: we gave up Nick Pivetta for Jonathan Papelbon, so he could blow up our clubhouse for a few weeks and leave. Pivetta isn't that good, but he's cheap and at least a #5. We gave up Tyler Clippard (who would reallllly help right about now) for Yunel Escobar. Yunel was one of our better hitters that, but it resulted in nothing.
2016: we then gave up Yunel for trash. Nice. We traded Drew Storen (who would have never blown up if it weren't for Papelbon) for Ben Revere. Call it 'even' now, but that didn't work out either. We traded Max Schrock for Marc Rzepczynski to pitch 14 good games for us and then blow on in the postseason. Schrock could be a trade piece for something today, or possibly contribute. We traded Felipe Vazquez for Mark Melancon, who was great for us. But it was all for nothing.
2017: Traded Giolito/Lopez/Dunning for Eaton (TBD, but Eaton is a shell of his former self after those injuries). Traded Treinen/Luzardo for Doolittle/Madson.
We were so dominant in these years, we could have just kept our chips and waited. We'd still have Robbie Ray, Nick Pivetta, Tyler Clippard (if he resigned), Felipe Vazquez, Giolito, Lopez, Dunning, Treinen, and Luzardo. All pitchers. But the "all-in" crowd demanded more, and I get why. But this is the price you pay. You can't complain now. Our farm is utterly empty because of these deals that got us, wait for it, absolutely nothing in terms of a postseason win (yes, thats how low our standards are). Unless we pay out the nose to keep him, Doolittle will leave here without a postseason series win.
This is why I will never be "all-in" for a bullpen arm acquired mid-season. All of the guys we got in return (Fister, Melancon, Rzep, Doolittle, Madson, even Papelbon) were good players in a Nats uniform, but they weren't enough to tip the scales in our favor. The only "all-in move" I would approve of mid-season is what Houstin did with Justin Verlander; turning a good rotation into an elite one and getting a true ace that can carry a staff.
Good breakdown, Harper. It is sad to read about Eaton. He had so much promise when he came here, and then in one effort to hustle to 1st 2 years ago, he potentially sapped a good bit of his overall value to the Nats. I certainly can't fault the effort; it was a freak play.
ReplyDeleteYou can make a case that Bryce's injuries have turned him into just a good player and not a generational one. The thing about Eaton is that he's still only 30, and I would be surprised if his numbers didn't improve when Turner gets back and he doesn't have to be quite as aggressive. Robles and Dozier in the 2 hole are disasters. Adam Eaton is still cheap at 8.4m, and he hasn't been a mountain range of outcomes like Werth for 10 million more. I don't really like the comparison.
ReplyDeleteOLE PBN - depends on how you look at it. Soto just had the best 19 yo season every maybe. So he's going to be ahead for a while barring total collapse. Yet if you are looking at "May 15th 2nd year" Bryce was putting up a .297/ .393 / .617 line with adequate defense. He'd get hurt and stumble but the idea was he was progressing rather than regressing early into year 2.
ReplyDelete"Subtracting the justification for the trades at the time" YOU CAN'T DO THAT. If you look back at any team not say... getting to the WS and then say their trades were pointless the amount of talent "wasted" in deals would be staggering. I'd argue two points (1) None of these deals were all-in so it's not the all-in crowds fault. It's the fault of the overly cautious crowd that kept the Nats from trading MORE because we need Fedde and Ross and etc. for reasons I guess. (2) If you take your point to the logical conclusion (dominant Nats could have done nothing) really you have to say the Nats had surplus value and should have traded good player. I've argued that insanity before. Why not deal a Rendon in 2016 if you aren't going to keep him and don't need him. Imagine the prospects the Nats could have now and what would it have cost the Nats in terms of playoff wins? Nothing. Of course no one wants this - it's contrary to the point of sports (for most) which is not consistent good play but winning it all
@Harper, Ole PBN. Again (see above)....no, Soto did not. Soto had the best **hitting season for a 19 year old ever. That’s awesome, but Harper had easily a better overall 19 year old season than Soto due to his overall superiority (5 WAR to 3.4WAR i believe). Harper has—thus far—a large defensive advantage in his young years, so even if his bat is a bit behind, it’s irrelevant. Soto still may be a fantastic, elite hitter. It is almost impossible that he will ever be an MVP level player who is 7+ WAR, etc, however, due to him being an apparently one dimensional talent. He would have to have an all time type hitting season in order to be in the MVP conversation, given his lack of other tools (or so it appears). Frankly I think it is probably more likely Robles becomes an MVP type player (you could see him getting more polished on defense and improving his bat and becoming a .300, 25-30 homer, quality defensive center fielder (6+ WAR player) if all goes great), because he has tools/potential in his all around game. Soto is always going to be a minus in the field and bases, so his ceiling likely taps out at 5-ish WAR or so.
Delete@Harper. The asterisk I think you have to put on this is that it seems plausible that the Nats bad outfield defense (Eaton, Harper, Soto, Robles) is due to terrible positioning across the board in a systemic way. Read this fangraphs piece about it the bad Nats defense and not the speculation. Short version: scouts and other teams are confused why a prospect projected to be elite in the field (Robles), average in the field (Soto), combined with Harper suddenly being shockingly terrible last year compared to his career and even his first few months with phillies, and Eaton going from elite in corner OF to horrible in corner OF despite his stat cast sprint speed not declining that much.......that the Nats may have a systemic positioning issue. Even MAT is not grading out as well this year and last year as previously. I’m not saying this is the reason every Nats outfielder is grading out worse than expected. But it’s a possibility, especially given that their speed (again, via sprint speed on statcast) is fast compared to their performance.
ReplyDeletehttps://blogs.fangraphs.com/no-defense-for-underperforming-nationals/
@BxJaycobb - Regarding outfielder positioning, I was thinking the same thing. You have coaches that I see directing players all the time. The you have outfielders who don't appear to be even close to where the ball is coming down (ref: Harper last year; all of the OF this year).
ReplyDeleteYou also have players that don't necessarily follow the coaches' positioning. I don't think this is an issue for Soto, Robles or Eaton. But it may have been an issue for Harper, who liked to play really far back. And it was probably an issue for Adam Jones in his younger days, when he liked to play really close in. Michael Taylor can play wherever he wants, because he can go back on the ball and come in to the ball, and takes excellent routes, and importantly, catches the balls that he reaches (unlike Bryce).
ReplyDelete@Bx: I think we're overvaluing defense again here, just my opinion. The rest of your explanation talks about what may come, I'm not talking about that. Only the present. Agree to disagree on the value of superior defense, and that's totally fine.
ReplyDelete@Harper: "subtracting justification for the trades at the time." The hell I can! >:) My point with this was, if all you're thinking is that getting player X in exchange for players A/B/C will get me a trophy, then yes, every single trade ever made is justified - good or bad. And my main gripe, which I mentioned at the end, was about getting relief help mid-season in exchange for prospects. I'll concede that these may not be called "all-in moves" (apologies to the all-in crowd), but then what is considered an all-in move when you're a superior team coasting to a division title? They don't deal their all-star 3B for prospects. A superior with WS aspirations in the same year is looking for icing on an already delicious cake. One that puts them over the top; trading the future for the present. I think that's the kind of moves the Nats have made in the past, like the ones for relievers that I highlighted.
Really, the bottom line is the Nats had a window of opportunity with a youthful/in-house group in 2012, and they didn't get past the first round. Had Mark Melancon pitched a game in the NLCS as a Nat, it probably would have been worth it. We see this all the time, where teams have 3-4 years of competitive baseball and then become irrelevant. The Nats have tried to avoid this by being competitive each year since 2012 and I applaud the hell out of Rizzo for having this mindset. But trading some of our prospects for guys who are only designed to protect a lead, late into a ballgame is ill-advisable. Trade for an impact bat, trade for a front line SP, fine. But not a guy who might not even pitch in a single postseason game because your offense can't score runs or your SP crapped the bed.
ReplyDeleteSvrluga today: "That’s the point here, Washington Nationals fans. This can be done. Doesn’t mean it will be. But it can happen. So before this season goes completely awry, it’s worth noting that the 2018 Dodgers had the same record as these messy Nationals after 41 games — and they went to the World Series."
ReplyDeleteI don't expect it, but...
As usual you miss the point entirely. Some of us who did not support the resigning of Bryce put up with 3000 words rants why the he was a future Hall of Famer and his loss would be catastrophic. Bryce is a 219 hitter with 7 home runs who strikes out over 30% of the time.
ReplyDeleteThe difference is that none of our outfielders are signed for 13 years at 330M. That makes this an apples and oranges comparison. No one every put Robles or Soto in Bryce's category. You are comparing guys on rookie contracts with the guy who once had the largest contract in baseball history.
You remember how you told me you were right and I was wrong because Bryce signed for 23% percent less than you predicted. You are the only person who would think that way. The Phils got a steal--a future H of F guy who is producing 23% less than the worst case scenario.
@Harper If you look back at any team not say... getting to the WS and then say their trades were pointless the amount of talent "wasted" in deals would be staggering.
ReplyDeleteOkay, then let's flip the question: Which World Series winning team in the last 20 years did one or more "all-in" trades in their World Series winning year?
What is the evidence that going "All In" ever works?
Th
Harper, I would disagree a little with your assessment of Adam Eaton. I don’t think he’s bad. You say that he’s a 4th OF. But as per FanGraphs amongst RF right now he ranks 21st by WAR and 24th by OPS. So not top of the pack, maybe more toward bottom-middle of the pack. But I don’t think that qualifies as Bench player. He’s still a regular. Maybe a weak regular, but still a regulars. That’s assuming we see NO improvement at the plate. I wouldn’t count that as bench player. I mean he’s better than Puig, Jay Bruce, and Jason Heyward. Again, not good but not BAD.
ReplyDeleteI agree that Soto's sophomore setbacks are a big deal, but we probably should have expected it. Bellinger regressed quite a bit last year and seems to have figured things out this year. Maybe Soto will do the same, albeit with the terrible D. I don't know how much he can improve there. Robles is "mercurial," I guess one would say. Since he's young, maybe he gets more discipline and becomes a star.
ReplyDeleteWhen you think of all the questions the Nats should have had going into the season--will Zim be healthy/good, will the bench be decent, will the BP be okay, is Dozier washed up, will the two youngsters hang in there and produce--we might have been less optimistic. A lot of this is on Rizzo, because maybe he should have signed a 2B who wasn't in decline (Schoop! Dietrich!) and another OF to help the young guys make the transition more easily.
It's really a shame about Eaton. That first month of 2017 was dynamite. Imagine if we'd had THAT guy for three years!
Harper, et al -
ReplyDeleteWhat can be done about Soto in the field? Are his woes such that the possibility of moving to first base is a non-starter? I know 1st is difficult but is it just that Soto is too slow for the OF?
OLE PBN - Whne they surprsingly were really good a year early the Nats had a incredible window set up from 2013-2016 but rather than double down during that time frame they tried piecemeal corrections so they could stretch out the window further. It got them one year but it looks like that's it. I think they thought they could split the difference and keep it going bc their aim was never division titles but like 90 wins and see what happens. But turns out that doesn't really work. They'll be good, but good. 85 wins.
ReplyDeletessln - good to see you back. I'm not sure about missing the point unless you mean yourself. I mean, the thrust of this piece was "hey the Nats OF is really disappointing so far" and it was using Bryce as an in to discussing it. We can talk about Bryce specifially but that wasn't what I was going for. We're never going to agree on payroll things because you are an "Accept the reality of what 28 out of 30 teams do every year. Think building around value" and I'm a "Scream at every team to spend more money because they can. Think get the best of everything you can"
BorninDC - good Q. Mets with Cespedes? Phillies with Cliff Lee? I'd have to look and we'd have to define "all-in" in some way. My bet is it's not too often. Every 5 years? I think when I did a cursory look at it one time what I came away with was that going "all-in" didn't really show anything above luck (but felt better) in terms of success, but it didn't really kill your team either as most guys dealt aren't game changers. Also I think I found that what really mattered was doing little/nothing matching up with getting nowhere. But again have to look at it.
JDBrew - fair enough. I tend to use a little tighter than Top 30 = major leaguers. I think there's a bit of churn at the bottom with players who are only here because someone has to be, not because they are really major league talent. But Eaton does seem to slip past that to the bottom of major leaguers. (which by the way would make a great 4th OF) So... hooray?
Callison - I think Soto will be fine. I worry he might not be the HoF/MVP guy but a very good bat? I'd be surprised if that didn't happen. Something like a later years Edwin Encarnacion is what I see as the most likely (with more chance to be better than worse)
They gambled on Dozier/Difo being able to handle 2B while Kendrick was out. Turner goig down immediately screwed with that pna.
coolsny - I think they will consider moving him to 1B next year as Zimm says goodbye. Soto is NOT slow. He's pretty fast actually. But he doesn't have instinct it seems and unlike Robles he isn't so athletically gifted in a defensive way to make up for it. He's not super fast, he doesn't have a great first step, etc. etc.
The Nats have finally found a solution to their 8th inning woes: Patrick Corbin! Might not be feasible for every game, but maybe every 5th game.
ReplyDeletewell harper he may not be slow, but he has the strangest gait/hips of any athlete ive ever seen. he reminds me of the giant bug alien learning how to move in human skin in the first Men in Black movie.
ReplyDeletePF - Why not? He's gotta throw in at least three of those days anyway...
ReplyDeletecoolsny - Hmm this would suggest Soto is not that fast, but has a good first step out of the box (in the OF though that can be negated by poor instinct) https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sprint_speed_leaderboard?year=2018&position=&team=WSH&min=10
thanks Harper but I've actually moved on from his speed into investigating whether or not he is possessed by an alien life form a la Men in Black. would also explain his command of the strikezone at age 19
ReplyDelete