Monday, July 29, 2019

Monday Quickie - Braves again

Real short bc work

The weekend series didn't go well but the end result of the 7 games - 4-3 vs Rockies and Dodgers - is what a WC Nats team wanted. Right now they are sitting exactly where they should be in this run. They lost an extra game to the Orioles but were able to split the Braves series in Atlanta. If they beat the Braves they'll accomplish two things (1) they will go through this 16 game stretch at 9-7 which was the goal and (2) they'll have won 4 out of the 7 games against Atlanta.  The latter isn't enough to start thinking about the division but is a game more than planned which is nice.

Even losing to Atlanta isn't a big deal.  Go 1-2 and well they are just a game off in likely the hardest 16 game stretch of the season and they went 3-4 vs Atlanta which is what was expected going in.

Now an Atlanta sweep? Ok that's bothersome but worry about that if you go down 0-2, not before.

Of course the big news of the weekend is Max looks like he's going to miss another start and the season gets that much harder when you are replacing Max with a rando 5th guy.  Adding to that is the Nats could pretty accurately set themselves as WC favorites with Max in the rotation, given how they've played the last 60 games, where they stand now, and what the schedule looks like going forward. But without Max? Who knows? And if you can't accurately set yourself then how do you approach the trade deadline?

Braves bats have been hotter than not this past week. Pitching more guys doing well than not. They went 2-3 but lost a couple close games and a big one that could be put on a poorly performing Gausman who won't be pitching the Nats series

Match-Ups

Keuchel vs Corbin - Keuchel had a nice start in his last go, but Corbin was better and has been really good for a month and a half now.  He and Stras can't do much about the 5th starter innings but are filling in the Max ace role. This favors Nats

Teheran vs ??? - Max or no Max I'm giving this to the Braves. Teheran is on a run, and when he's on a run he's very good. Max would be pitching on a weird rest pattern and on a short leash if he does go. More likely he doesn't and anyone else is a clear step down.

Soroka vs Sanchez -Last starts were flipped experiences.  Soroka cruised until the 5th where he couldn't get out of it. He luckily only gave up a run but it was on the brink of being blown open.  Sanchez was almost beat in the very first inning against the Dodgers, also snuck out with a run, and then dominated.  You like Soroka better than Sanchez but not by much.

2-1 Braves is the call, but 2-1 Nats is clearly in play, especially if they win the first game as expected.

56 comments:

  1. DAMN, I want to win the division.
    However, I expect to be a nats fan for a long time, and I really don't want the team to give much up to get there. The cupboard is bare and the payroll room is very tight. So I think we have to stand pat.

    If Max is going to be out for a while, move Rodney, Howie, Eaton, and Dozier, (and Adams if his foot's okay) and call up Kieboom, MAT, and Noll.

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  2. Oh, I didn't watch the game - how did Blazek look? I know he gave up 3 runs, but with an 8 run lead, it's possible he wasn't too worried about making contact.

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  3. Everything depends on Max. If he’s going to be ok and be back in the next week or two, then trade for bullpen arms, and they’re a WC team and a good bet to win the WC game with Max (or frankly, Stras, if Max is not a full version of himself)....and are capable of beating the dodgers or whomever. (They’re 3-1 vs Dodgers with their top 3 pitching). If Max is seriously hurt, I mean just forget it. I might literally sell. It’s that’s big a deal and they likely won’t make the playoffs with Stras, Corbin, Sanchez, and two garbage pitchers at 4-5.

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  4. @Kevin Rusch: check the box score and summary. Blazek walked the first batter on 4 pitchers, and the second batter on five pitches. That's atrocious for someone coming in with a 10 run lead.

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  5. Yeah, if Max is out or going to miss a prolonged stretch, I think it might make sense to sell because the Nats cannot afford for any of their SP's to go down, but if they lose Max, stick a fork in it because the drop-off is that big. They don't have a #5 starter, they certainly don't have any depth behind that. Unless there's some crazy awesome deal to be had for a starter, the season is kind of in jeopardy, despite how well they've played of late.

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  7. Anonymous11:40 AM

    That seems a little doom and gloom @JWLumley and @BXJaycobb Re: Max. I get the sense that if Thursday or Friday had worked out, the tone would be different.

    Not having him against ATL is going to be tough, but then we'll go 4 man with the off day Thursday giving us two turns through the order we can cover with our three core starters plus Fedde into the Giants series. We don't really have an off day after that for a while, but we do have a soft schedule - Mets, Reds, Brewers, Pitt, Cubs and Os. None of those teams scare me enough to say we can't survive a starter-type system for a month.

    With any luck maybe Arizona and SF flip to sellers with a few losses to make our lives easier (lets go Marlins!). Now if Max is being shut down for the year (aka, more than a month really), I agree we are in deep water.

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  8. Anonymous11:41 AM

    sorry, opener-type system, not starter-type system.

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  9. @Anon - Doom and gloom? Maybe, but I think it's more a reflection of the Nats training staff and their complete inability to hit a self-set deadline. When I hear the Nats training staff say someone will miss a start, I immediately think 10-20 days. But really, if Max goes down, I don't see how they can do it without getting extremely lucky. As for the soft schedule, it's not exactly soft when you're running AAAA pitchers out there 40% of the time. I mean Voth is hurt, Ross is not a major league pitcher. Heck, he might not even be a AAA pitcher. In a month, you're talking about 6 starts where the Nats would be very lucky to break even, but more likely outcome is 1-5 or 2-4, as opposed to 6-0 or 5-1. Best case, that's a 3 game swing for a team that already has major bullpen issues.

    But the bigger issue is that bursa sac injuries linger. So Max may or may not be right for the rest of the year. Now, if the Nats had any depth in their system to speak of, maybe you go for it and hope for the best, but the Nats system is extremely thin. And, they're not willing to take on payroll so the chance of them trading for anything good and not depleting their farm system is pretty thin. Given all of that, a soft sell in a seller's market might not be a bad idea. It wouldn't be popular, but attendance is off this year anyway.

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  10. Anonymous12:33 PM

    @JW - 100% agree, we're not the same team without our best pitcher if Max is going to be a mixed bag or out ROS. I actually like the idea of selling a few of our recovery projects (e.g., Rodney) to restock some back end top 100 prospects. But we'll be playing against some AAAA pitching with some AAAA pitching pretty frequently in that stretch.

    3 studs (is Anibal real??? I hope so) is better than any other NL team except the Dodgers once the Mets sell. I like our odds to stay in contention even while Max gets well with that stretch.

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  11. That's the Nats training staff I know....https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/07/nationals-place-max-scherzer-on-10-day-il.html

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  12. The nats best depth option currently was fedde. he could only come up with an injury cause he was optioned last start. lets not panic and starting we need to sell rodney (who wont bring back anything) top 100 prospect for him is ridiculous. if max comes back next week this isnt panic time. not ideal that he will another braves series

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  13. @Treaples69 I don't mean to be rude, but are you familiar with the Nats training staff? If they say a week, they mean, definitely longer than a week.

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  14. Anonymous1:09 PM

    @Treaples69 - we'll see. The asking price for top end relievers is so ridiculously high right now, Rodney seems like he's in the goldilocks range for acceptable trades (e.g,. the borderline top 100 types like who was shipped for Stroman). I won't die on this hill though.

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  15. Robot1:12 PM

    If the training staff is now saying a week, I'm revising my earlier prediction (September) to next season.

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  16. Ole PBN1:41 PM

    @Anon: "I actually like the idea of selling a few of our recovery projects (e.g., Rodney) to restock some back end top 100 prospects."

    Not channel ssln here, but what makes you think someone will give up a back end top 100 prospect for Fernando "7.20 ERA" Rodney? You have to give something to get something. Rodney is a nothing. You'd get a random pitcher in low A with middle of the road numbers for Rodney right now, if that. Not saying you don't do the deal, but I can't think of any of our reclamation projects that would net us a top 100 prospect.

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  17. Anonymous2:18 PM

    @Ole PBN - You see 7.20 ERA Rodney, I see a guy who returned to late career form when he left OAK. Granted, it was pretty on Wednesday when he still had a 2.79 ERA with the Nationals before Davey decided to Drew Storen him Thursday and that blossomed to 4.22.

    If you look at his season splits, he had the trifecta of bad command, K/9 plummeting and terrible BABIP to look like he was done in Oakland. In DC all of those returned to career norms so far (2016-2018 he's been 3.44, 4.23 and 3.36). I really don't think a pro-GM would see the 7.20 number, they would see the 42 years and expiring contract and say I don't want to pay for it. I'm using backend 100 prospect as really "Any prospect that would slot in 3-4 in our org", which is a lot lower in reality.

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  18. Unless it's a catastrophic injury to Max, there is no incentive for them to tell the world if it's 10 days vs 20 vs 30.

    I like the Sample-Size-Of-One Matt Grace as starting pitcher. Let's do that again, only let him go 3-4 innings.

    Poor Joe Ross. The guy needs to be reinvented as a back end reliever who can throw his arm out for one inning.

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  19. @JE 34. Wait, this is the same Matt Grace that we wanted to deport for the past two months. I'm not so sure you will want to see him pitching against too many right handed-batters. That said, at least he is a bad major league pitcher. Joe Ross, who had such promise before his arm surgery, is not a major league pitcher.

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  20. Hard for me to understand what has happened to Joe Ross. It’s actually rare for a pitcher to go from number 2-3 type starter with great stuff to “cannot get one out” after TJ.

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  21. DezoPenguin6:29 AM

    In fairness, Ross was also pretty lousy in 2017 pre-TJ as well (and I don't think anybody ever considered him to be #2-3 starter potential, though I admit that being a Nats fan tends to skew one's perception of what a third starter on an average MLB roster looks like).

    That said, the FO cannot be continuing to run him out there as a fifth starter. Voth and Fedde at least have been functional pitchers, guys we don't really want to see out there but who at least are likely to give the team a chance to win the game if the bullpen doesn't melt down and the offense shows up, and a playoff-bound team ought to be able to win a few 6-4 games along the way. With Voth hurt and Fedde filling in for Max, it's time for Rizzo to move on to Plan C.

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  22. Anonymous6:41 AM

    Would you part with Carter Kieboom and say, Garcia, plus throw in Wil Crowe, for Felipe Vazquez?

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  23. DezoPenguin7:48 AM

    Vaz is a stud, young enough that he's likely to stay one, and on a stupidly team-friendly deal with years of control. If I was going to even consider moving Kieboom in ANY relief-pitching deal, it would be for Vazquez.

    That said, given that the Pirates are reportedly asking the Dodgers for Lux in any trade, I'm not sure Kieboom could get it done. (If the Pirates would take, say, Garcia+Crowe I'd say thank you very much and have the contract signed before Huntington sobers up.) And I definitely wouldn't move both Kieboom *and* Garcia.

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  24. Anonymous8:47 AM

    I'm going with continued irrational exuberance after last night's win. GIVE ME ANOTHER TONIGHT!

    I wanted a trade to bolster the BP depth, but getting resigned to another deadline passing with our hands tied (still bummed we didn't ship Bryce last year). Maybe we can ship MAT for some fringe prospects and convince everyone he's as good as Goodwin, just needs a permanent chance.

    Armchair GM, signing out

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  25. @Kevin Rusch - It looked like Blazek was trying too hard too hard and so, as mentioned, walked two. Pitching coach came out to remind him that he had eight (okay, seven) players behind him and a good lead.

    Once he stopped trying to be so careful (unsuccessfully), he got the outs.

    We'll see what happens next time.

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  26. Trading Mat for a fringe prospect could actually be important because he is costing 3.5 mil against the luxury tax. Anything is going to help wit rizzo trying to get a relief arm and stay under luxury tax

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  27. Ole PBN12:09 PM

    Treaples, I'll piggy back on that statement about MAT, but add one caveat: "Anything that is going to help Rizzo get rid of MAT." I actually thought he was paying the Nationals in order to play baseball, not the other way around. In that case, a pack of gum is fine. He can go. I'm sure he's a nice boy though, just don't need him swinging a bat for us anymore - at any level.

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  28. DezoPenguin12:20 PM

    Given that Stevenson has basically beat out MAT for the OF5 slot at this point, I have to third Treaples and Ole PBN. If Rizzo can find basically any club willing to take a chance on him, hand him over just to get the salary off the books.

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  29. The Nats would likely have to eat some salary to get rid of MAT. In fact, that's probably the focus of negotiations.

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