Since the Nats have comfortably settled into winning as they should - a little bit more than that actually - but not historic fans thmselves are kind of getting settled. Outside the usual and deserved Max love sessions, other things are being lost like...
Zimm is back! The question is how much to play him. In Detroit it was fine because of thee DH but back in DC it becomes an issue. If Zimm plays first in a platoon with Adams, that kicks Kendrick off off the bag and over to second. That's ok, but Kendrick isn't the fielder that Dozier is. If Zimm takes over again as the main, first baseman, that robs Adams of some at bats. Neither of these guys have been great recently but they both have been decent and had key hits and homers. The fact that they haven't been great gives Davey some cover but the Nats don't have leeway to let Zimm have a couple weeks to get back into the rhythm of the season. He needs to hit. If not this week against the last of these easy teams, then as soon as the Nats come out of the All-Star Break.
MAT is gone! To AAA actually. Did Dusty work him the best? Or was he just a beneficiary of MATs best prime year season? Probably a little of both. But a MAT with limited playing time is clearly not good at the plate. He's almost certain to be back in a couple months when rosters expand and they need a fielder, or if someone goes down. Of course the question is - right now do they need another PH bat like Parra more than they need MAT's late game fielding? My guess is no, but we will find out over the next few weeks I guess.
The Nats offense slowed way down in the past week, putting up a .233 / .306 / .408 line. It's been hidden though because the runs have kept coming at least versus the Marlins. Against Miami they packed hits into innings. In game 1, 7 of their 10 baserunners came in two innings, yeilding 6 runs. 5 hits, and 2 homers came in one 5 run inning. In game 2, they had 15 baserunners - 5 in the 4 run 6th and 5 more in the 3 run 9th. In game 3 6 of the 12 came in their big 5 run inning. In some respects this is how you score - but in a larger macro sense it shouldn't work out for you like this every game - that half your baserunners come in one inning. There's more of a distribution across innings and based on that line they've put up? Fewer runs. Only Rendon and Soto are hitting right now so there may be more close games, win or lose, in these next 6 than you are probably expecting. Or maybe they just have a killer instinct right now?
Dozier has been particularly bad so I would expect a healthy dose of Kendrick at 2nd.
While it'll be interesting to see if Venters and Rodney can keep being effective, it's the re-birth of Wander Suero that is more important. He gives the Nats the all important reliable 2nd arm behind Doolittle for important points in the game or the 8th inning. Unfortunately Davey is treating him as just a set-up guy but if it works, ok. Just hope there aren't games blown before they get to him. (like there have been across this time frame)
I would argue that Dozier and Howie had bad bapip luck in last six games (especially howie). I think Zimm needs to be third option even against lefties. Howie is just playing better. and maybe a platoon between them with adams gettting all starts against righties. and howie filling in with dozier. i do think davey has done an excellent job managing howie workload
ReplyDeleteBest case scenario is that Adams, Kendrick, Dozier all need some rest and using Zimm gets you that. ie, playing Kendrick as much as they have in the past doesn't get you his past performance because he is wearing down. So Zimm just needs to be replacement level to not actually giving up any on-field performance. Not that this is good news, but might explain his playing time.
ReplyDeleteDoes it make sense going forward to have Venters/Rodney split the 7th, with Suero in the 8th, and Doo in the ninth when they are ahead? Then Guerra, Rainey, and Sipp can get mixed in for other spots, and Grace is the long man?
ReplyDeleteThink Tanner Rainey will be able to recover from Davey's overuse the past couple weeks? His ERA has gone from 2.03 on 6/19 (the start of a stretch when Davey let him throw 86 pitches in 5 days) to 5.29 today. Also in that span... 8 walks (had 5 total previously), 2 losses and a blown save.
ReplyDeleteAnd is Davey aware that this is a problem?
Having Zimmerman back shouldn't be seen as a problem. It creates more options. Though he has not burned particularly bright since 2017, he has consistently played at a level that adds something to the mix.
ReplyDeleteFive of six on the road trip was not bad. Can they do it again at home? Time to suck it in before the ASG. Five of six would reduce the space between the Philles and Braves who will play each other 3 times...
Scherzer really dominated Detroit.
On Thursday 5/23, we got swept by the Mets at home and dropped to 10 games back of the NL East lead and 12 games under .500.
ReplyDeleteSince then, we've gone 23-10 and... are still 7 games back. That is frustrating. Playing at a .696 clip and only making up 3 games on the leader.
Good news: the team is playing well, games are fun to watch, and the Wild Card is certainly within reach. Bad news: the Braves are annoyingly good.
@Ole PBN, and that's the problem with digging yourselves such a deep hole. In my opinion, it's a foregone conclusion that the Barves will win the division unless the Nats keep winning at this rate for a much more extended period of time. But that doesn't mean the Nats can't pull off a WC berth. As long as they stay healthy, I see the Nats as the #2 WC and I'd take the Nats any day of the week with Mad Max on the hill in a one game playoff (does that count as a playoff series win? please?)
ReplyDeleteAny word on whether the Nats will skip Voth in the rotation this week? Right now, it lines up like this: Tuesday - Corbin; Wednesday - Strasburg; Thursday - Sanchez; Friday -- Voth, or Scherzer on regular rest. If the Nats skip Voth, they go Scherzer, Corbin, Strasburg to close out the pre-All Star Game schedule. If they insert Voth, Scherzer and Corbin get an extra day of rest, but Strasburg doesn't pitch. This is important because I want to go to the game on Friday, but only if Max is pitching.
ReplyDeleteTanner Rainey may be suffering from overuse, or he may just be reverting to his mean. Hard to know. Rodney is going to revert to the mean as well, and that could be ugly.
The Nats have some real questions coming out of the last week:
ReplyDelete1. What was up with Voth's big drop in velocity and how does that affect the #5 spot.
2. Is the return of Zim subtraction by addition? (I didn't see him hit a single ball hard.)
3. Why is Gomes getting equal playing time to Suzuki when Suzuki has clearly distanced himself from Gomes?
4. Venters looked excellent. Given that his issues were mainly control, is it too soon to get excited about him and how long before DM overuses him and he re-develops control issues like Rainey.
5. If the Nats add, where do they add? Is it the bullpen, #5 spot, a 4th OFer or all of the above?
@Ole PBN, I dunno, we still have 14 H2H against the Barves. Catch Philly this week (rooting for the Barves here) and keep playing .600 ball and, you never know.
ReplyDeleteVoth has been bad at every level, this level of suckatude saturday was totally foreseeable. And why I wasn't so hawt to demote Fedde who also is bad.
ReplyDelete@Jimmy Agree. You know how's pitching pretty well for a bad team......Tanner Roark.
ReplyDeleteFroggy - IOW - Just play at a 102 win pace for the last 112 games of the season. Easy Peasy.
ReplyDeleteJWL - The question that matters the most is that last one. Where are they at the ASB and do they add or not? After the ASB is going to be only <20 games before the trade deadline so the decision time is going to come to us fast
Harper - IOW just keep playing the way they are currently playing, and win the H2H games against the Barves.
DeleteWait. Zim has been consistently useful? No he hasn’t. He can’t hit. He can’t run. He’s a hideous defender. Look at his WAR since like 2015. Consistently a terrible player with the fluke oasis in 2017 (where his defense was so bad that it took away a good amount of his offensive production). I would not give Zim an AB against a RHP rest of the year. Period. He can pinch hit against LHP and get a few starts when people are tired or hurt.
ReplyDeleteThe one thing Zim has been good at in recent memory is hitting left-handed pitching. 182 wRC+ in 2015, 161 in 2017, 201 in 2018. (Only 73 in 2016, when he stank on ice.) Only 82 this year, but 24 PAs is beyond SSS into nothingness. If Davey (and Rizzo) have the guts to use him as a straight platoon partner for Adams (who's spent his entire career unable to hit lefties), that's likely to be okay. This is especially true given that somehow his UZR/150 is actually better at 1B than Howie's, which surprised the living heck out of me.
ReplyDeleteI can live with an Adams/Zim platoon at 1B, Dozier at 2B with Howie getting regular starts, especially against RHP (they both bat right-handed, but Dozier has heavy platoon splits while Howie can hit righties). What I can't deal with--not when the team has zero margin for error--is letting Zim play against right-handed pitching because of "veteran leadership" or some desire to balance the $18M they're paying him or other nonsense.
This is the kind of thing managers are paid for--to make the best possible lineup and clubhouse decisions while acting as a leader of men to get 25 testosterone-fueled egos all on the same page. How Davey handles Zim over the next few weeks and how the team performs will, I think, tell us more about his actual ability on the bench than any amount of speculation up to this point.
Dezo: How do we know it's Martinez's decision to make?
ReplyDeleteThis is part of going all in. If we're not willing to bench Zimm then we have no business trading prospects for relievers.
ReplyDeleteSo things are going well for the team right now, and then I get to read about how Rendon is "not even close" to a deal with the Nats. Faahhhk.
ReplyDeleteI am a little perplexed why we can't offer ~$220 million. Any fan objections to this? In my mind, there are three reasons why Rendon wouldn't come back if we offered this:
1) He thinks he's worth more than Arenado, to which I would shrug my shoulders, chuckle, and wish him the best;
2) The amount is okay, but its full of deferred money, to which I'm curious how much longer we have to offer deals like this and whiff on FA's because of it?;
3) He doesn't want to be a Nat anymore, to which I understand there's no swaying that opinion (unless you appease his #1 reason, getting paid more than Arenado).
The sad thing is that, no matter how this turns out (he's def not coming back, called it last year btw), we will never know the full story. We'll get Svrluga's tell-all hit piece before next season, Rendon will have his version, and the Lerners will remain steadfast in saying "we offered him a fair deal and he didn't want it."
And all of that is the sad truth, unfortunately. Really like Rendon and, unlike when Bryce left, I will truly be very disappointed. Yes, Bryce leaving the year before makes it all the worse when Rendon ends up doing the same thing in that its back-to-back years we let a homegrown superstar leave via FA. BUT... the thing that would make me totally livid, is if I hear that Rendon asked for a specific number with no deferrals and the Nats offer him not-even-close-to-that-number with a lot of deferrals. Like they didn't even consider his wants or needs (similar to what Bryce described the Lerner's doing - true or not). That type of negotiation, to the player, is perceived more as a lack of commitment/understanding of YOUR own guy, rather than a fair negotiation process. The player is going to give the team the FU sign and walk out the door - ala Bryce Harper - as he should.
Don't do that, Nats.
I don't want to offer $220 million to Rendon. I'm not sure what he's worth, but I sense some drop-off coming soon, especially defensively. He'll be 30 next June, and has already logged a lot of games at the MLB level. When does he start to break down physically?
ReplyDeleteDon't get me wrong: I want Rendon back! And I think the Nats will try harder to retain him, given that they need a 2B and 3B next year (unlike this year, where they already had starting-caliber players at all three OF spots). Feel free to call me out on this, its just that $220 million seems high to me.
Okay, regarding Rendon.
ReplyDeleteRead a couple of puff pieces yesterday about it being Bobby Bonilla day and how his deferred pay was a good deal (for him) when you figure in interest on the deferred amount, and his last contract was greater than his career earnings.
So assuming that deferred doesn't mean "pay a little each year until you're 110 years old," why would deferred be bad? Serious question - I'm not an economist.
@ W Patterson
ReplyDeleteI'm not sure of any the exact numbers, but here's the gist. The Bonilla deal is good for him because the Wilpons, having been suckered into Madoff's con game, thought they had locked in 12% returns and didn't mind giving Bonilla 9% in order to keep their money invested, even though 9% was still a really really good rate of return for a no-risk investment back in 1999.
The Mets going bankrupt isn't quite as impossible as the US defaulting, but it's pretty close. And, for comparison, 30 year treasuries paid around 6% back then.
So the LOLMets conclusion is: Madoff goes bust, the Wilpons lose some huge portion of their assets, and they're still paying that 9% interest to Bonilla.
G Cracka--
ReplyDeleteNot calling you out so much as asking:
1) How much is he worth (assuming he declines as much as you imply)? And would he accept the offer?
2) If/when he bids adios, who plays 3B and produces similar offensive numbers?
The Nats' organization is currently barren of offensive big bombers. Not that they've ever emphasized power in their drafting, but it's particularly critical now that Rendon departure is imminent.
Kieboom, I think, will eventually produce Rendonian numbers. Until he does though, who plays 3B? Or 2B? Or even 1B for that matter?
The best long term solution, I'm increasingly convinced, is for the Lerners to sell the team.
When the Nats offer deferred contracts, is the deferral with interest? I had thought the contract that Max signed had a lot of deferred money, but with no interest, thus decreasing the net present value (NPV) of the contract.
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