Let's run through the players
NO CONCERN
Max - heading toward another Cy Young, stamping his 1st ballot HOF entry pass, and generally being awesome and the best thing about this team
Strasburg - Last year was a little off for Straburg but the first part of this year is on the same path that he's been following since he came back from Tommy John (that's right the "he needed Max as a #1" stuff is nonsense. But dummies will believe what dummies want to believe.) which is Cy Young vote worthy. And he's hasn't missed time yet!
Corbin - Is he as good as last year? No, and I hope you weren't expecting that. Is he better than 95% of #3s out there and maybe 80% of #2s? Yep.
Rendon - Having his best season at the plate ever
Soto - The guy can't field but he's definitely a star.
Kendrick - Super sub can't hold down a position but also can't be held out of the line-up
Suzuki - Doing what was expected which is hitting well but not playing a lot because pitchers don't like to throw to him I guess? There's a reason a catcher hitting above average can't get a starting job.
MILD CONCERN
Turner - He was out a good bit, so that is always worrisome, but otherwise is fine.
Doolittle - If you are the type that demands a shutdown closer, Doolittle isn't it. But he's good. Right now he's living off his HR/FB rate which he has always kept down but he's giving up more FBs than ever and his walk rate is up. It feels a little precarious looking at fancy stats but really the problem is if he goes the bullpen cannot survive it.
Adams - He's been what you basically want but you'd like him to be even better to force Zimm to the bench if needed.
Robles - Sorry he's not Soto. This is not the season to concern yourself with Robles unless he's terrible and he's not. Still striking out a bit much but overall keeping it around average and anecdotally I feel he's been fielding better.
Eaton - Accept the fact he's truly a Singly Joe and accept that that's ok if he keeps hitting over .300 and walking.
Parra - I mean take what you can get.
MODERATE CONCERN
Dozier - The guy is living off homers which is kind of how he plays. But the Ks are up and man did he look tired as the year ended in 2018.
Zimm - had a couple good games but we all know Zimm runs hot and cold. And that throw home... What to do?
Sanchez - He's been good recently, but the Nats have also been running through some garbage offenses. Against better teams earlier he looked pretty bad. Much like with Doolittle there's an extra concern that what's behind him can't pick-it up if he fails.
MAJOR CONCERN
Gomes - still can't hit but the pitchers like him so he plays.
Whoever is 5th starter - the Nats have no depth and this needs to be an target area for trade if the Nats do anything.
The rest of the pen - They aren't historically bad but who here gives you confidence? There's still guys in it (Venters now) that shouldn't be but there isn't anyone better to take his place. We all are enjoying Rodney but I assume he'll bust at some point. And again it's been a MIA DET MIA cakewalk recently.
What's the takeaway? The Nats have the holes you know - 5th starter and pen, that are nearly universal in baseball. They'd be better if they could add some help there. It's especially concerning because 4th starter and closer don't feel as set as they should be and if those go down problems you can get past become season ruining ones. The top of the rotation though is humming along and the line-ups concerns are ones you like to have - how do the Nats use their better players more? Can they convince pitchers to throw to Suzuki? Can the Zimm/Adams situation clear up fast? Can we get Kendrick in as much as they'd like?
It's a strong team that if they can be supported and things go their way shouldn't have issues staying in the WC hunt all season long. The NL East is a tougher road because the Braves are actually good and the Nats dug themselves a big hole but we'll evaluate that as the season goes along. It should clear up one way or another by the end of the month.
I think one thing that Davey has actually done a great job is resisting the urge to play Kendrick and Suzuki in every game. They are older players who definitely play better when fresh. Suzuki is catching max and anibal every time around with usually one more start mixed in. He hits well when he has rest and will stay of IL that way. I also think Gomes has to start hitting better. He is so far below his career number that you would expect some sort of positive regression even though it does indeed look like he stinks
ReplyDeleteDidn't Scherzer switch to Suzuki after 8 starts with Gomes and middling results? If 'Zuk catches for Scherzer and Sanchez, then you only need one more starter to switch for 'Zuk to be able start at least 60% of the remaining games.
ReplyDeleteThat's correct so I would expect Zuke to start catching 55-60% of games but Davey will not change his strategy of keeping Kendrick and Suzuki healthy which is important
ReplyDeleteI agree with most of this, though I don't understand where the hypothesis that pitchers don't like pitching to Suzuki is coming from.
ReplyDeleteThe support for the hypothesis appears to be an effort to resolve a puzzle: why can't a good hitting catcher like Suzuki get a starting job? The answer to that puzzle is actually a lot simpler than "pitchers must not like throwing to him." The answer is that (1) Suzuki mostly hasn't been a good hitting catcher - his career WRC+ is 90 - and almost all of his good hitting has occurred recently - he's had four of 13 seasons with a WRC+ above 100, with three of them coming in the last three years and the fourth two years prior to that; and (2) he's a 35 year old catcher who has played 1400+ games and caught 5000+ innings.
Suzuki is one of only THREE position players 35 or older to get a multi-year deal as a free agent this offseason (the others are Jed "lolmets" Lowrie and Ian Kinsler). I think the market valued his skills appropriately given his age and the context of his recent good hitting.
Eaton is basically Nick Markakis. This is Turner aside from his rookie year. Gomes is disapointing, but that really isn't a huge deal this year as long as we keep Suzuki rested and healthy. It can't be overstated what the utter failures of Barraclough and Rosenthal have done to this pen
ReplyDeleteI was thinking about that the other day. Imagine if the Nats master plan had been to sign Markakis and not trade Giolito, Lopez, and Dunning. That deal in conjunction with the Melancon deal killed our farm system.
ReplyDeleteMelancon deal didn’t kill farm. That was Vazquez (on team). The other one that killed farm was trading Jesus Luzardo to A’s.
DeleteWhile true Eaton's decline is almost 100% due to his catastrophic injury, when they acquired him they were acquiring a 15-15 type on base machine with plus plus defense coming off of 4 and 6 win seasons respectively on a cheap deal, so basically young Markakis with better defense and a higher floor for far less than 4 year 44 million dollar markakis.
ReplyDeleteWith respect to Harper, Robles is worse than a mild concern. He needs to be above average to reach his prospect hype but instead he has shown disconcertingly bad judgement in any kind of dynamic situation.
ReplyDeleteBase running obviously, but also too much "situational" hitting, and bad throws on defense. His slash stats are not what was promised: .246/.320/.443 for a 96 WRC+ and .763 OPS. He's been caught stealing in 6 out of 18 attempts. That on-base percentage really hurts - he's walking only 5.1% of time and striking out 24.2% of the time. His BB/K of .21 is 148th out of 157 qualified batters.
We could use an average center fielder with an average bat, and that's not what Robles has been.
Robles has been incredibly average lol
ReplyDelete@billyhacker Robles is totally passable. He's on pace for around 1.9 fWAR, which is sufficient for "yeah this young guy deserves to start unless there's a star on the roster at his position" status and is just fine for rookies (he's 14th of 52 qualified rookies in fWAR). Sure, you'd like better than that from a top prospect, but plenty of elite prospects are never any good.
ReplyDeleteHe's 22, so he's got 2-4 years before a more normal player would even make the majors for a contender. There is no fair reason, from this half season, to think Robles is not a starting center fielder.
Robles is fine. The guy is hitting for way more power than anyone thought he would this year on pace for around 25 homers with plus defense. He's 22 he'll be fine. Not everyone is Soto. The base-running stuff is rookie shenanigans.
ReplyDeleteEaton hasn't been that bad in the last month or so. He's still ranked 25th of all qualified batters (both leagues) in BB/K rate. For having been so injured, he's not that bad, and he's been getting better as the season goes on. His WRC+ by month: M/A: 100; May:83! June:119; July:122.
ReplyDeleteFrom June 1 to present he's been very good - a 120 WRC+ (.810 OPS).
Unfortunately, those dates only represent 122 out of 322 at bats. But they are the most recent ones!
exactly he's nick Markakis.
ReplyDeleteAmong rookies he's 14th in fWAR because he has the 4th most plate appearances and so counting stats overrate him. His offense is around 20th among rookies as a rate stat. And that's after being rated a consensus top 3 prospect last year. Hopefully he comes around. He was much better last year, and the projections based on his minor league career were much better - but falling short of expectations and projections is why he's a concern.
ReplyDeleteJust to be clear, I didn't write that he wasn't a serviceable center fielder, he's almost an average MLB center fielder now, which is a great outcome, but he was held out of important trades (like Realmuto) because the Nats thought he would be better than average.
Robles is better offensively than MAT: Plus
ReplyDeleteGomes is better all around than Matt Wieters: Plus
Suzuki is better all around than both Wieters and Gomes: Plus
@billhacker, others. Um, a rookie 22 year old on pace for 3+ WAR is fantastic and what a top prospect should do. So he won’t be rookie of the year...ok. He’s been valuable and has time to get even better. He’s already** an above average starter overall (average is about 2 WAR for season, which is where Robles is *now*), just to be clear. Plus in bases, plus on field, slightly below average bat, but will have a 20-20 season of HR-SB. Re “not what was promised,” sorry to burst your bubble but his slash line is basically what projection systems pegged him for in his rookie year—-slightly below average bat (see ZIPS, etc before season...). His WAR value actually is on track for MORE valuable than he was projected (projected for 2.3 WAR or so....were people expecting him to be an Acuna/Tatis type talent? Because he never was supposed to be generational freak (unless u buy into home team prospect hype and lose all perspective)....he was supposed to be a level below that. Maybe folks are now expecting rookies to come out of the chute as close to their finished versions because of folks like Alonso and Soto. Just as many come out and can’t hit AT ALL their first year, then come back a totally different hitter the next year ( see Scott Kingery). I also think people are not appreciating that Robles is already a plus defender (early on he made some mistakes, but since around beginning of May, metrics have absolutely loved him). Again, that’s why a slightly below league average bat is actually on course for a very valuable 3 WAR season.
ReplyDelete@Harper “He’s no Soto.” Well...Not at the plate, no. But I think it’s entirely plausible he ends up a more valuable player over next couple years in WAR/all around game, considering he’s not far off from Soto’s overall value right now. (Soto’s on track for like a 4 WAR year, Robles for 3 WAR....and this is with Robles a barely above .300 OBP. Soto’s never going to be a non liability in the field....Robles is almost an average bat already and could easily come back next year as a Trea type bat. Soto will never be able to be a great player in the sense of being a 5+ WAR guy when he’s this bad in field...he has a ceiling that’s very evident... (and likely D will get only worse with age as everybody does in the field). I feel like a lot of this is the old school phenomenon of people naturally valuing offense way way way more than defense and baserunning, when really it should only be valued as slightly more* than half the whole game. Robles has been very valuable this year. If he can learn and up his offense even a bit over his first few years as most rookies do, he’ll be an All Star level player with his other tools.
“@Billy hacker: “he almost average/Nats thought he would be better than average.” Again, he’s been above average (look at WAR, not just offense). I doubt the Nats thought he would be stud *in season 1.* He was held out of trades for very very good reason...because it’s 7 years of a guy who already isn’t THAT far from Realmuto’s value. (Realmuto is 2.6 WAR, Robles is 1.9 WAR. Do you want a couple years of a 4-5 WAR player or 7 years of a guy who is starting at a floor of a 3 WAR player and might be a 4+ WAR player for majority of that 7 year period of control. It’s not a comparison...unless it’s a timing thing.) can’t say it enough times: don’t look at just offense (which is almost average), look at everything (which is above average).
ReplyDeleteWhy is anyone complaining about Robles? He could do with getting HBP less I guess, and hopefully keep the TOOTBLANs to a minimum... but I expect at least this kind of performance moving forward, if not better.
ReplyDeleteDoes anyone here remember HOW LONG the Nats have been looking for a Center Fielder? I mean for the entirety of the franchise CF and Closet have been the 2 positions that they are always screwed up in. Remember Najee Morgan, Lastings Milledge, Willy Harris?? Remember NOOK LOGAN?????!!!!!???!!!
ReplyDeleteWe have a 22 year old speedster who is hitting for power, being a little aggressive on the basepaths, and obviously playing a bit too loose. Striking out too much because of that early HR success. Being to aggressive because of his speed. Making some questionable decisions because he’s trying to be a hero. Remember the guy is replacing BRYCE HARPER in the lineup. Big shoes to fill. He’s probably a little outta whack this early in his career. Whenever I get frustrated with his rookie nonsense, I just remember NOOK LOGAN and I realize...Victor Robles is pretty darn good to have.
Closer’ not closet....a closet has not been a problem the Nats have experienced. A Closer has been.
ReplyDeleteTwo things about Robles:
ReplyDelete1. Despite the memorable TOOTBLANs, Fangraphs still has him as a net positive in overall baserunning value, better than anyone on the team barring Turner. So overall he's outweighing his mistakes with good value in SBs, taking the extra base, and so on.
2. While he may be replacing Bryce Harper in the lineup to the extent that this year's OF is Soto-Robles-Eaton while last year's was Soto-Eaton-Harper, he's not really replacing Harper in that Harper is not a CF; if we'd resigned Harper it would be Eaton that we got rid of (both because of defensive value and because of cost).
@DezoPenguin - I agree. I'd actually think numbers from last year (plus in season improvement on the base path) suggest a slightly better second half.
ReplyDeleteAlso, Soto-Eaton-Harper sounds like an awful defensive outfield.
Does dealing Kendricks for a BP arm or two (Tampa maybe?) make the most sense? Kieboom seems almost ready to be an offensive supersub with a path to being an everyday 2nd baseman. The high OBP numbers for Kendricks are super valuable and I don't want to lose that, but that does make the most sense for compete + play for the long term...
I'm not willing to deal Kendrick. Someone else maybe? Maybe Eaton+ and we get a power bat to play RF with a serviceable bullpen arm in return? Or maybe deal Gomes for some pen help? I just don't think Kieboom is ready to fill in the way Howie can. He is probably our 3rd best offensive player. I'd prefer to not trade a guy who scores/drives in runs, in return for a guy who might prevent runs from scoring at a slightly lower rate than our existing relievers, every 3rd game mind you.
ReplyDeleteI just like the team the way it is and think the bullpen is working itself out. I'd love another arms as much as the next guy but don't want Papelbon coming in here and screwing up a good thing. That "good thing" is the hottest team in baseball coming out of the break. Don't mess with that too much.
@Ole PBN
ReplyDeleteWe've been spoiled by great play against a super easy schedule where the starters consistently went 7+. Kendricks can't play everyday apparently, and is probably at peak value right now (honestly, he probably has more value in the AL to DH somedays?). Eaton would be more attractive to a team that's one year out and wants the control for cheap, so I wouldn't be heart broken by either play.
The BP solution right now though is likely not on the team, which could make it very hard to get us to the playoffs. I don't trust Davey to manage a pen the way we'll need to get the WC. We absolutely need better there, no way around it, and moving on from pieces with value like Kendricks or Eaton who aren't core is a necessary deal (for the right value of course). No scraps, we need the play we made in 2017.
I'm surprised nobody is suggesting an obvious surplus that the Nats have for trade that doesn't involve Howie or Eaton: Zimm. The Nats might have to offer to eat some salary and can likely only trade him to a DH role, but it resolves the Adams redundancy and gives Howie a home for 2/3 of the remaining games.
ReplyDeleteI've been a Nats homer since they moved here and loved seeing Zimm play, but seeing Zimm limp out a double and throw underhand to home for a 2-run error proved to me he's washed up in the field. He needs to play 3-4 ABs a game so his feet don't kill him. Nats can do him a favor and send him to an AL contender and wish him the best. And get a decent BP arm in return.
Even if the Nats eat 100% of Zim's salary, they are not getting a major league pitcher in return unless the pitcher sucks. Sure, they might get a minor leaguer who becomes a decent pitcher in the big leagues, but that necessarily doesn't help this year. Any contender - AL or NL - who is interested in Zim would want him as a bench bat. He simply has given no reason to believe he remains a starter-quality hitter. Not only that, but he's an injury risk.
ReplyDeleteThe reasons the Nats would want to trade Zim are the same reasons no good team would give up much to get him.
Hahaha oh Mythra. Oh sweet, sweet Mythra.
ReplyDeleteAustin Adams, the reliever the Nats traded to Seattle a couple months back after giving him ONE inning in the majors... currently 21st best reliever in MLB by WAR (min 20 innings).
ReplyDeleteWhat. The. Heck.
Somebody mentioned that figuring out the 5th starter problem shouldn’t be the priority. I also think getting another bullpen arm is a bigger priority but not by much. To illustrate. During the Nats 28-11 run, 6 of those 11 losses were when the 5th starter pitched. That’s crazy. It basically means that any time the Nats win a 5th starter game, its insanely unexpected and a borderline miracle. I honestly believe that getting an additional quality starting pitcher would net the Nats more wins over the course of the season than an additional elite reliever. In the playoffs of course it’s the opposite.
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ReplyDelete@BxJaycobb:
ReplyDeleteIndeed. Honestly, Madison Bumgarner is a great fit for the Nats, not because of some pipe-dream, return-to-2014 nonsense, but for what he actually is right now: a solid mid-rotation starter, a legitimate MLB-quality #3-4. (Also because the Nats are not on his no-trade list and because the Giants can also help solve our reliever problems.)
The Nats have 73 games left. By simple back-of-the-envelope math, that means 14-15 games started by our #5. And right now, we only win 1/4 or 1/3 of the games started against the WORST teams in the league when we start the #5, so that's something like 4 or 5 wins. Simply getting a pitcher adequate enough for the Nats to win those games half the time gives us 3-4 more wins right there, which is the functional equivalent of replacing Eaton with Mike Trout.