A very interseting road swing

Last swing was supposed to be clearly the toughest one for the Nats. Even though it featured a lot of home games, coming out of the ASB the Dodgers and Braves were the best and the Rockies were a reasonable WC contender, plus - no breaks! But the Rockies collapsed and the Nats caught a rain delay so it ended up a little bit less intimidating than originally thought. Still you can only go by what you see going in when you set those goals and they hit them so good for them.

The Nats are tied for the WC spots with the Cubs and the Phillies right now, with STL holding onto a 1 game lead in the Central and Milwuakee one game behind in the WC race.  Those are the main teams who are going to battle out for the NL Central crown and the two WC spots.  But they aren't the only teams still in it. In the next 9 games the Nats will run through the rest.

This road trip is a little daunting in its own right* as the Nats face their last West Coast swing and a series of fringe WC contenders. They'll take on Arizona first (3.5 behind the Nats), then SF (2.5), travel day, then the Mets (4) The Nats have a good shot to end each of their runs as serious contenders as being swept at home by a team they are trying to catch would probably do any of these guys in. But they also could let any of these guys move up to the first group with a sweep of their own. It's not that important that the Nats do well, simply maintaining ground is now a running out the clock situation, but they need to not blow it here.

To set the stage Arizona is running through a defining stretch (WSN PHI @LAD). The Giants get to play Colorado before taking on the Nats and having their own defining 20 game run of decent or good teams (includes their 4 interleague games vs a game OAK team). The Mets on the other hand have PIT and MIA up next before the Nats then take on the Braves but then get KC. They have one of the easier recent schedules**. I'm getting very excited for this August. Ideally, you want the Nats to come away from this stretch with a winning record, 5-4. That means they put space between at least two of these teams when given the chance and likely contribute to them falling off the radar. They still might lose a game in the WC standings doing this but that stretch I talk about below in the footnote should be where they make up 2-3 games.

Now onto tonight and Arizona - the Dbacks made themselves worse by trading Greinke but Mike Leake is a decent pitcher to fill those innings so they aren't digging any deeper into their SP depth - which was only three pitchers deep to begin with, with Luke Weaver on the DL though Alex Young is ok.  Other than that it was minor leaguers so the team is pretty much the same. The offense is solid. The have a big hole in the MI as 2B (currently Wilmer Flores) is terrible and Nick Ahmed at short is below average. So pitchers do get an end of line-up reprieve (though in the 6-7 hole, 8 is their catcher Kelly or Avila who are both hitting). Jones is not doing well but everyone else in the lineup is clearly above average, though they lack a superstar. Some may argue Ketel Marte is there, I'd like to see more than 100 games of this before I give him that. There's nothing they do poorly. Don't strike out too much, walk ok, got some pop. It's just very balanced. Right now Walker and Kelly are hot Escobar is ice cold. Marte is slumping.

The relief pitching is fine.  It resembles the line-up in that it's a lot of guys above average but no one great, mixed in with a few stinkers.  Holland is a weak closer, Bradley, Hirano, and Chafin are all better than their ERAs. Lopez worse. Bradley is probably the best and is control away from being dominant. He's been lights out lately. Crichton has been very effective as has MacFarland. Lopez has been bad.  Godley is the white flag. It's a high K group with a penchant for giving up bombs. It's fine.

The Nats catch these match-ups
Robbie Ray vs Joe Ross - Ross is Ross. Ray has been strong. Ray's a high K bit wild HR guy himself. but the first two tweaked a bit better than the pen, and he also doesn't give up as many hits. When he's on - as he has been, he's close to an ace. Easily favors the D-backs.

Strasburg vs Alex Young.  I told you Young has looked pretty good and he has. But he's a guy who is relying on a crazy low BABIP right now - .171.  That can't keep up.  He's not an overly heavy GB% guy either. This dam should burst. On the Nats side, Strasburg has been fantastic.  Easily favors Nats.

Corbin vs Merrill Kelly. Kelly is ok. He's the three deep but a clear back of the rotation guy. You can make contact against him so he tries to keep the walks down and  hopes you hit it where they are. Corbin has been great. Easily favors Nats again.

So should be a series win. If the Nats can manage to win tonight it's a good chance at a sweep.


*when do the Nats have it easy? Well I told you the 2nd half schedule was a lot harder. They'll get a mix of easy games after this for the rest of the month vCIN (easy), v MIL (not), @PIT (easy), @CHC (not), vBAL (easy), v MIA (easy), v NYM(???)  so about 2 weeks of on an off then a stretch at home going into Labor Day that could be a real boost if the Mets are floundering.  Then it's hard again in Sept with only one gimme series @ MIA

**who else has it easy? well it's hard to tell with so many teams still in the mix but the Cardinals will get an easy stretch in a couple of series.