By food!
Mended mostly now but gotta catch up on some stuff so real brief -
You can look at the road trip positively (the Nats did what they needed to going 5-4) or negatively (the Nats lost ground to the two closer WC competitors in H2H matchups). That's up to you. Regardless they are still in the WC spot and the schedule breaks down as follows. Rest of August : Pretty easy. September : Pretty brutal.
The Nats need to put some ground between them and the other WC contenders over the next 2 1/2 weeks. CIN/MIL at home - need to go 4-2. PIT(4) CHC on road - need to go 4-3. BAL(2) MIA home - need to go 4-1. That's 12-6 (Well 11-6 now) and probably a nice 3-4 game cushion on the WC. No excuses anymore, no "we'll make it up later". This is later and the Nats need to play with urgency. Because if they are in the same spot now on Labor Day they won't be making the playoffs.In September they have to go through NYM, @ATL, @MIN, ATL, @STL, @MIA, PHI (5!), CLE - that's one gimme series in 26 games. Some WC contender is going to play better then they will during this stretch, maybe 3 or 4 will. So get that cushion now.
Good to hear that the Nats need to play with urgency now that Doolittle is entirely worn out from being used urgently for the last several weeks. I was mad before about how often he was going into 4 run games, but now I'm livid.
ReplyDeleteHarper, I'm seriously tired of you pretending like the Phillies aren't bad. They are bad. Their run differential (-33) is the sixth worst in the NL. Their BaseRuns (-71) is fourth worst. It's not like the Phillies improved at the deadline - their non-Nola starters are a pupu platter of AAAA pitchers. This is what they are (a bad baseball team). Having a five-game series against a bad team that will almost certainly be eliminated from playoff contention prior to the last week of the season is a great stroke of luck. The rest of your post stands: the remaining games in August are easy, and September is harder. But they have two gimmie series back to back at the end of September in Miami and Philly (eight games).
ReplyDeleteFood poisoning sucks. I hope you feel better.
Doo now has the curse, but help is on the way in the form of Greg Holland.....which I really hate to say because Greg is from my hometown of Marion, NC. I used to buy tires from his uncle Max's Railroad Street tire shop. But if we are destined to always give up late inning dingers, better Greg than Doo. Better anybody but Doo. Or maybe last night was the beginning of the curse moving from Doo to Rainey and Greg is going to pitch like gangbusters for us again.
ReplyDeleteBASEBALL GODS, CAN WE PLEASE BE RELIEVED OF THE AWFUL CURSE OF GOGGLES!!!!???
BTW, hate it for you Harper, but maybe the food poisoning is the catharsis we need. Take one for the team. ;-)
Yes, agreed that Doo needs more rest. Honestly, based on how the last few games have gone, I'm less upset about him being used in 4-run lead games, even though its not a save opportunity. If Doo can give up 4 runs in an inning, any of the guys pre-Trade deadline could have as well. Remember that game in Miami, where they had a comfortable lead, and they tried to have Guerra finish the game off, and then they had to bring Doo in anyway? I believe that also happened in another game where Austen Williams was put into the 9th. Sure, it worked out that Doo was able to clean up the messes, but I think its harder to come into the 9th in the middle of the inning with guys already on base.
ReplyDeleteRegardless of that point, I think that we are seeing the lingering effect of having one of the worst bullpens in recent memory (by Win Probability Added). There wasn't much trust in anyone besides Doo, and understandably so, so Doo got overused. Now, give the man some rest and let the rest of the now serviceable 'pen handle more of the load. No more using Doolittle in 3 out of 4 days.
I'm concerned that DM has so overused Doolittle that he may need way more rest than the Nats can give him. Like a few weeks. His fastball velocity has dipped and it's not just that he's getting hit, it's who he's getting hit by. Most people won't agree, but closer is often the easiest job in the bullpen, the way lineups work, more often than not, the closer is brought in to face the bottom of the lineup. Yes, there's more pressure, but it's the major leagues, these guys wouldn't be here if they couldn't handle pressure at least to some extent. Doolittle is getting hit by pinch-hitters who aren't especially good pinch-hitters. Another factor to consider, if Doolittle finishes 17 more games this season, his club option turns into a mutual option so it might be in the Nats best interest on several fronts to give him a trip to the 10 day IL.
ReplyDelete@Anon
ReplyDeleteI don't see where Harper said the Phillies were good...? He said there's only one gimme series (MIA). The Phils are not a gimme series. You catch Arrieta Nola or Eflin on a "good" day and they are not horrible. Same goes for Realmuto Harper and Hoskins. I don't like Harper either but he can get hot and be very dangerous, and you can't argue the talent of Hoskins and Realmuto either. This is a down year for them for sure I think. Phillies suck for a multitude of reasons but I would never call them a gimme series.
Regarding Doolittle, I hope he gets an "injury" today and goes on the 10 day IL(can't believe we don't say DL anymore). If ever there was a guy in need of a break...
Make Hudson our "closer" in his absence and pitch Holland in low leverage situations. I don't know. Doolittle can't go on like this.
coolsny - you can also catch Joe Ross or Erick Fedde on a "good" day when they are not horrible. The fact that mediocre-to-bad pitchers sometimes have good starts does not change the fact that 80% of the time, the Phillies start a 5.00 ERA caliber guy. EVERY starter on the team has a FIP above 4.00 (even Nola). The non-Nola guys who have started ten or more games for the Philles have FIPs that range between 4.85 and 6.54. The Phillies are MUCH closer to the Marlins/Pirates in terms of how good they are than they are to the real WC contenders. The Reds, for example, are MUCH MUCH better than the Phillies; the Reds' run differential is roughly 70 runs better than the Phillies' and their BaseRuns advantage is even larger.
ReplyDelete@coolsny:
ReplyDeleteIf the Phillies aren't a gimme series, it's strictly because they're a division rival and for some reason it's perceived that division series are tougher. They're 16th in MLB in batting fWAR and 28th in pitching (Nats are 14th and 5th, respectively). Their bullpen is as awful as ours was, their hitters have been in a two-month slump. Of the three starting pitchers you mentioned, Nola is legitimately good, yes, but Arietta is pitching through an injured elbow and Eflin is so far from being a threat that the Phillies took him out of their rotation.
Yes, they're not to an Orioles/Royals/Marlins/Tigers degree of bad, but they are a bad team and any reasonable expectation should be that the Nats win at least 3 out of 5 against them with a good chance at more.
And yeah, I agree with everybody about Doolittle. Though honestly, I don't know why DM pitched him yesterday. With a three-run lead and Doo having just pitched Monday, and the hind end of the Reds' lineup coming up, this would have been a perfect opportunity to let him rest and use Rodney (who did not pitch Sunday, unlike Doolittle). That "it's a save situation, so pitch the closer" mentality, combined with four months of having only one guy he has confidence in seems to be creating tunnel vision.
Really, with Doolittle, Rodney, Suero, Hudson, and Strickland for high-leverage situations and Guerra and Rainey for low-leverage ones, plus Grace around for blowout duty, there's no reason at this point for any of our relievers to have to pitch two days in a row, even more so when Elias comes back.
Nola and Arrieta are not comparable to Fedde and Ross
ReplyDeletecoolsny, Nobody has compared Nola to Fedde or Ross. Nola is better, period.
ReplyDeleteAs for Arrieta, you need to leave 2016 and enter 2019. Arrieta's FIP is 4.89. He doesn't strike many people out (7.30/9) and walks a ton of guys (3.38). His projected (using ZIPS) ROS FIP is 4.76, which is lower than Joe Ross's projected ROS FIP (4.73), as well as Fedde's (4.62). These numbers aren't gospel, and Arrieta tends to outperform his FIP. But in terms of how we would expect them to pitch going forward, Arrieta, Ross, and Fedde are peers. In other words, Arrieta is now a $25 million/year AAAA pitcher. He sucks. And he's hurt.
@JM Lumley: small point, but statistically it seems unlikely that closers are more likely to face the bottom of the line-up. In a typical game, the closer pitches the 9th inning. It's pretty random which batters will come to the plate in the 9th inning.
ReplyDeleteDoolittle has an opt out clause that kicks in if he finishes...16 more games I believe. Otherwise the Nats can retain him for 6.5 million next season. I don't know whether playoff appearances count toward his contract clause.
ReplyDeleteHe will most likely finish more than 16 games the rest of the season
DeleteI'm wondering if the Nats can, and would, tinker with the way they use Doo to avoid having him finish more than 16 games. Why not use him in the 8th a few times, and use Rodney or Hudson in the 9th -- esp. if the situation calls for it (e.g. heart of the order, tough left handed batters, etc.).
ReplyDeleteFurther worth noting is that this year by fWAR (not talking about last year), Nola would be the Nationals' fourth starter, and he's significantly closer to Sanchez than he is to Corbin. I recognize that yes, he's trending upwards after an awful start to his season (not unlike Dozier, actually) and that his true value is probably somewhere in the Strasburg-Corbin tier of player, but in terms of his actual performance in 2019, he's simply not the borderline Cy Young performer he was last year. The Phillies' second-best starter right now is Jason Vargas, pretty much the definition of a veteran journeyman. The remainder of the rotation is Drew Smyly, ejected from the Rangers for epic suckitude and after two excellent starts for the Phils upon signing has now returned to his previous ways, Vince "Probably The Best Fourth Outfielder On The Team" Velazquez, and the aforementioned Arietta, who's pitching this year like you'd expect a guy to pitch when literal spurs of bone that will require surgery post-season if not sooner are tearing into his flesh from the inside every time he throws a pitch.
ReplyDeleteBottom line: the Phils are a fourth-place team for a reason. The fourth-best (by W-L record) team in the National League should not be looking at series against fourth-place teams as anything other than a chance to win games.
@PotomacFan - the link here is about the opener, but there is a chart in there for wRC+ by inning. The 2nd and 9th are the innings with lowest wRC+.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.theringer.com/mlb/2018/5/22/17379048/tampa-bay-rays-sergio-romo-kevin-cash-opener
I don't have the stats to back it up beyond the above, but I would be willing to guess that the actual batting order of batters faced in the 9th may have a fairly even distribution between top, middle, and bottom of lineups. But the likelihood of a fully intact optimized lineup is lower in the ninth - particularly in the NL - is probably much lower. Where pitchers are facing substitutes and PHs, they are likely not facing their opponent's top options.
And I think that was JWL's point. Doo is starting to falter against some sub-optimal PHs. Guy needs some rest.
Are the Phils a gimme?? Well the nerds at 538 say they are just above the bottom 3rd of the league, and also interestingly put them right below the Reds, who are right below the Brewers. You might quibble about "gimme" but it does feel like a team that deserves to make the playoffs goes 4-1, maybe 3-2 if they happened to be overperforming leading into those last 8 games of the season and so experience some mean reversion.
ReplyDeleteAlso how are there multiple comments in this thread and the only mention of a "Max" so far is *checks notes* Greg Holland's uncle? Max, we haven't forgotten you! Please heal and come back (is it too much to hope for "by the last 3 game series against ATL"?)!
Max has a sim game today. If that goes well, and the bullpen goes well on Friday, then he could start on Sunday vs. MIL.
ReplyDeleteDoes Max read this blog?
ReplyDelete@Mr T,
ReplyDeleteI'd be really surprised if they didn't have him at least do a rehab start before throwing him back out there in a "real" game.
Rehab start would be necessary, I don't care who you are. Max did give up a home run to Zimm, which kind of makes me wonder when Mr. Plantar Fasciitis plans on earning his $18M this year?
ReplyDeleteIt should be clear to everyone that Joe Ross should be the favorite for the NL Cy Young award. He may never give up another earned run again in his career.
ReplyDeleteIn all seriousness, I have to eat some crow re: Ross. I wanted him back in the minors in favor of virtually anybody about a month ago after he detonated in a relief appearance, and he's gone and turned in three excellent starts in a row in Max's place. At this point, he and Fedde have turned the question of who should be the #5 starter from "who's less awful" into a legitimate "who is actually good?" question.
ReplyDeleteWe've gotten lucky injury-wise twice in a row, now, too, with Rendon's toe and Soto's ankle. It's nice to actually catch some breaks.
Time to re-visit the position on Joe Ross? Three games is a small sample, yes. But so far so good.
ReplyDeleteNobody on this skeptical board is going to let anybody get away with saying Joe Ross is good based on 3 games, but it is possible he is good... He was still coming back from Tommy John and being placed into not ideal situations earlier in the season. He is proven to not pitch well in relief. He also was shipped from Fresno at the last minute and thrown into a game against the Braves and then got shellacked by a great team. He worked on his mechanics with the pitching coach. He says he got his confidence back. He passes the eye test with 95/96 and movement. Three games against OK teams with one run allowed in 17 1/3 innings. He has at least earned the right to keep pitching in the 5th spot. It is not out of the question he is the answer for the 5 spot next year. Keep in mind he is only 26.
ReplyDeleteThat Sinker/Slider last night was filthy...
ReplyDeleteI think he's been clearly better than Fedde the last few starts, which was not the case earlier in the season. The scoreless thing would never last, but keep this up more than a month and I'm back on board.
Also, an interesting fluff piece on ESPN this morning about Bryce. It brought up WPA, which an old ballplayer I love (because you want the clutch guy always and it feels very real that certain people rise to the moment) and as a stats nerd I hate, as it's highly not very predictive of future success. Still, putting him 5th in that line behind Yelich, Bellinger, Freeman and Trout is fantastic company.
ReplyDeleteArgument is still out on Bryce's long term value, and no matter what I'll convince myself it was the right choice not to sign him now that he's gone. But if he's the leading cause of the extra 7K butts in seats per game alone in Phi (about $20M extra rev in tickets alone if you assume $35/ticket across 81 home games), plus concessions, jersey sales and Ad rev. increases, he's probably justified his year 1 of his contract in the business sense.
just want to point out that Ross' results have been good, but fancy stats are more troubling...
ReplyDelete11 strikeouts, 9 walks in 18 innings...
let's cool it before we have him pitching the WC game for us lol
@coolsny - I think the excitement for Joe is having him be a poor man's Zach Wheeler for us. that's much better than what we've been throwing out most of the year as a 5th.
ReplyDeleteAlso like to mention that I'm glad you're feeling better after the food poisoning, Harper; that can be pretty ugly stuff.
ReplyDelete@6:58 Anon. Yeah, exactly. I'm just happy that Fedde and Ross are going out there and not being instant-lose buttons. Baseball fandom (and honestly lots of other things, but that's a societal rant) has a lot of trouble perceiving that there's a really broad area between "stellar" and "hot garbage" (like listening to Red Sox fans complain that their team is awful and their GM should be fired for putting together this trash like they're the Orioles or something). Like Bryce Harper; it's actually quite possible that it was both a good decision not to pursue him for the Nats (because he's a marginal improvement on what we had and we were close to the luxury tax) and a good decision to pursue him for the Phils (because they had money to burn and garbage for internal right field options). Ross doesn't have to be Max, Stras, or Corbin; just being as good as Sanchez makes him a significant asset to the team.
Max says he's ready to get back to work. Can you imagine the conversation of Paul LeSard wanted to keep him out longer than Max wanted? Like Matt Williams trying to take Max out of a game...!! Ready for a stretch run!
ReplyDeleteIf the poison has taken out Harper, I'm calling dibs on the site.
ReplyDeleteBut in all seriousness, hope you are feeling better!
What do the fancy stats say about Fedde? I am thinking he might end up being the #5 option over Ross once Max returns.
ReplyDeleteSo. Because someone has to go there. Harper, was it a taco that gotcha?
ReplyDelete