Monday Quickie - cushion gone but still ok

The Nats went 4-6 which is what I assumed they would and which I assumed would cost them their cushion. I wasn't sure which team would be the one rushing in. Turns out to my surprise it was the Brewers. Good for them. By "cost them their cushion" I mean with a 3+ game lead in the WC* they are more than a series ahead of the next team and in my mind this let's them play around with the line-up or do some things with the pitching staff I wouldn't do in a tight race. With the cushion gone, they now have to go to the next level, which isn't quite playoffs "win or die" mode, but it's closer.  Why? Because they could be in REAL trouble after this series. It would take a STL sweep but the possibility is there.  So time to step it up, which means :

1) Best line-up is out there for every game. This means Suzuki if he's ok.  This means Kendrick. This means Asdrubal until he's not hot anymore.  Yesterday Asdrubal sat and Dozier played.  Mistake. Don't let it happen again.

2) All starters should go as long as they feel good.  No standard pitch limits now. If a pitcher is effective and at 105 and wants to go another inning you let them. Do not take an effective pitcher out just to do it. That's the biggest mistake modern baseball analysis makes. Usually you can afford a baserunner and an effective starter beats a mystery box reliever from a bad pen every 7th inning. The caveat here is injury return guys can be pulled early so if you want Max out at 100 pitches I'm ok with that. Yesterday Anibal went 7, maybe he could have went more but with a 7-0 lead pulling him wasn't about pitch limits, so it was an acceptable decision

3) You use your best relievers as much as you can in tight games. You throw out bad relievers in games that have been decided. It's kind of hard to figure where that "decided" vs "still in play" line sits with all these bad pens, but in general 4 in the 9th, 5 in the 7th/8th, 6 in the 6th, 7+ in the 5th. Something like that. Yesterday the game was decided and we saw Strickland. That's a borderline move given his usage. Barrett or Guerra were the plays instead.  Doolittle was used after that but he needed the work.  Expect Hudson next game regardless of the situation for the same reason.

Maybe the Nats can win 2 and the Cubs/Brewers lose 2 and they can get the cushion back and not worry about this. But until then this is what I want to see happen.


The Nats have 14 games left and merely have to do the base expectation to be fine. Don't get swept by STL. Beat Miami. Beat Philly. Don't get swept by CLE.  Do that and you go at least 7-7 have 89 wins.  That would force two of the following to happen to put the Nats on the outside looking in with no G163 at least. 

Cubs go 9-4
Brewers go 10-3
Mets go 13-0
Phillies go 14-0

The first is vaguely possible. The second is a reach. The last two would be the greatest finish to major league seasons, I think. If you want no G163 you can knock all those down a game but remember you still need TWO to happen. Cubs going 8-5 alone doesn't force a G163. Brewers have to go 9-4, too.

It's only if the Nats fall down in some way, and don't do something good to counter it**, that they are in trouble. Get swept by the Cardinals and then don't sweep the Marlins. Lose to the Phillies and can't beat the Indians. If they are at 6 wins then you start to see the cracks form.  It's still probably enough. But who likes probably?

They are only in real trouble at 5 wins or less which mean at least two slip-ups with no counter. Losing every series would do it, 1-2, 1-2, 2-3, 1-2. (that'd be two slip-ups - MIA & PHI with no good counter). At 5 wins the Brewers could force a G163 with a 7-6 finish and put the Nats away with an 8-5 one (assuming Cubs are going at least .500) That's more in the realm of possibility.

It's time to take things one at a time. A lot will matter how everyone else does as well.

CHC plays CIN at home. They could make a move though Cincy seems to pull out decent series and overall probably isn't as bad as their record. 

MIL plays SD at home. SD isn't very good and it's a great opportunity for MIL to keep making their push.

NYM are at COL.  Games in COL are always a mess. The Mets are a better team but at this point really need a sweep to stay in it.

PHI is at ATL. Same as the Mets - they need that sweep. The problem is ATL is a lot better than they are. They should hang onto the idea of getting to the Nats series with a chance, but without a sweep they are asking for a lot for that to hold up through the Nats/Marlins series.

ARI is technically not out - a perfect end of season gets them to 88 wins - but I'm writing them off for now. We'll check back after these series.  Really the only reason PHI is still mentioned is because of the 5 H2Hs.

Go out there and win tonight and get that "not swept" out of the way



*Just being in, not HFA.

**the good counters are Beat STL, Sweep MIA, Go 4-1 or better vs PHI, Beat CLE