You also have to consider that it seems like the Nats are leaning toward Max to start the WC game. If this is true* then an awesome Strasburg performance would present an interesting dilemma. With Max's last two outings having some issues and Strasburg having a great one sitting out there, along with the 2nd half domination and Max returning for injury, could the Nats still go with Max? I imagine so, but it's something to think about. A middling or bad performance would make it easier but it would also have you looking at Strasburg going into the playoffs with a middling or bad performance.
Anyway, after today the Nats can set up for the WC game as they see fit. Which to me is
Starter goes as long as he looks good
Divvy up last outs as follows
- 3 for Hudson, if need more than that
- 3 for Doolittle, if need more than that
- 3 for Rodney
longer starter goes you take out Rodney then Doolittle. There is room for a Hudson Doolittle switch if there is handedness reasons in the 9th but otherwise this is how I see it. No one else pitches unless things have gone wrong.
Agree?
Awards? Do any Nats have a shot?
MVP - Rendon SHOULD have a shot but voters already seem set to vote for Yelich or Bellinger. Both are great choices but not that much better that Rendon shouldn't get more of a mention. Given the Brewers won without Yelich, Rendon is headed for a WC while Bellinger is headed for 105 wins the odds favor Bellinger.
CY - Max's injury and subsequent very good but not MAX pitching scuttled his chances. deGrom has 25 more innings, lower ERA, lower WHIP, and lower HR9 (also same in comparison to Flaherty and almost to Ryu who holds a 0.02 ERA lead on deGrom). Flaheryty is the hardest to hit, Ryu the most control, Max the best K stuff, but in the end deGrom will win.
ROY - Alonso has the momentum despite being a lummox that just homers. It's so many homers! Soroka's probably the most deserving. Got a 175 ERA+ and while not a Cy contender (innings and Ks aren't impressive) he's been a big reason Braves won the division. Robles may not even get in the Top 5 - though he should. His D has become that good to outshine good but not great options like Bryan Reynolds, Chris Paddack, and Alex Verdugo
MOY - Davey will get some votes because of the comeback but the hurdle to overcome is why do you vote for him, favored to win East getting a WC over Snitker, not favored to win East, won East. You don't. Roberts could have a shot too with the number of wins the Dodgers are putting up. Shildt will get play for taking Cards back in 1st year, as will Counsell for the dramatic Yelich-less September. Davey may fall to 5th - which honestly is probably more where he belongs. He started 19-31!
*And if you followed the comments to yesterday's blog you can see why that may not be the worst thing. Fancy stats love Ks and hate BBs and Max has been awesome about those things, better than any Nat. If you can get past the homers (I can't) then he's the one to start
I think you replace rodney with corbin for one or two innings. especially if you are facing the Grandal (much better lefty) moustakas part of order.
ReplyDeleteI only like Corbin for a one-off have to get lefty. I don't like using starters as relievers.
ReplyDeleteOh boy does a 5 game sweep of Philly feel good. If only Milwaukee could lose...
ReplyDelete=%&!! Brewers won't lose! Ridiculous. 20-4 is ridiculous. Still rather play brewers than cardinals in WC.
DeleteNot being a fanboi here, but with 18 wins, 151k's an most innings pitched, not to mention the horse that carried the Nats in the second half if the season, I don't see anyone else but Strasburg deserving the CYA.
ReplyDelete*251ks!
ReplyDelete@Harper. stras dominates. Blows away Bryce 3 times. Give him the ball.
ReplyDelete@Harper, Froggy. Can’t give Cy to Strasburg over DeGrom. Strasburg has only been superior at IP and Ws. That’s it. If you’re big on Wins, I guess that’s internally consistent thinking. I do however think that Stras should finish 2nd in Cy voting, barely ahead of Max. I think the IP gap does it for me. Also think it’s fair to say this is possibly Strasburg’s finest full season as a pro! (Better even then 2017, due to missed time.)
@Harper Re your pitching plan. Not into it at all. I get that you don’t like starters as relievers, but this is a unique situation..actually it’s unprecedented, as I’ve said as nauseaum, the worst bullpen ERA of any playoff team! Do u want to wake up the next day after fernando rodney or Daniel Hudson gave up a 3 run bomb to moustakas ending the season and 2 cy young contenders sitting in the pen? If I’m managing, nobody pitches in this game except Strasburg and Max—unless we’re winning by plenty. If you remove the bullpen, the Nats are as good as any MLB team. So remove it. Then you go in NLDS with: 1: Corbin 2: Sanchez 3: Max 4: Stras 5: Corbin.
“Worst bullpen ERA of any playoff team in baseball history” is what I meant.
ReplyDeleteI agree w BxJaycobb. If you all remember Jordan Jimmerman giving 2 lights out innings in Game 4 NLDS 2012 and Clayton Kershaw coming out for Dodgers in Game 5 to finish the Nats.
ReplyDeleteWC game is special case. I would keep all SP pitchers and relievers ready for every single scenario if you want to give your team the best chance for that game.
@Anon. Word. No bullpen please. It’s not our Achilles heel. It’s like a piece of plutonium strapped to our ankle.
DeleteRodney? Rodney?? Didn't he just give up 4 runs to the Marlins? Why would anyone want him pitching in an elimination game? Especially when you could bring in, I don't know, Stephen Strasburg instead?
ReplyDeleteDo we have anything approaching actual data to indicate that starting pitchers coming in as relievers in playoff games are likely to suck?
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ReplyDelete*Too many typos in previous comment.*
ReplyDeleteI still like both of Bill James "Cy Young Points," and "Season Score" for predicting CYA.
I like the plan, and am fine with Doo and Hudson, but if the starter goes 6, then I want Corbin taking the 7th. Can always bring Hudson into the 7th if Corbin gets into a jam and you need a righty. Then Doo in the 8th and figure out the ninth (maybe Doo goes 2!)
ReplyDeleteI like Stras pitching a 9 inning 100 pitch complete game shutout. If he can't go nine, bring in Max.
ReplyDeleteThen Corbin and Sanchez in LA. Max and Stras at home. Then Corbin again if necessary. The Dodgers aren't nearly as weak against lefties as they used to be, but there's still a pretty sizable drop off as opposed to facing right handers.
Wow Harper, for ROY, Alonso is a Lummox that only hits HR's. Yeah 51 big flies and 118 RBI's so far. ROY of the year is one of the few awards that ISN'T even close. Alonso is a landslide!!! Rendon should get more consideration for MVP though.
ReplyDelete@TwoGloves. I’m sure NL ROY will* be a landslide because voters and the media are wayyy too obsessed with home runs compared to anything else in baseball. But it shouldn’t be. Mike Soroka has been just as good a player this year (Soroka leads by bWAR, Alonso by fWAR), and a more important one re the playoffs, if that matters to voters. Hell, even Robles is similar to Alonso in WAR (4.1 to 5), but being the best defender in MLB—that’s what Robles has been this year by most metrics— doesn’t get half the coverage as hitting the most homers and in New York City, nor does being a Cy Young top 5 finisher. (He also wasn’t the best rookie to play in NL this year...that’s Tatis, but he got hurt of course. *****To be clear, I have no quarrel at all with Alonso winning. I would vote for him or Soroka. My point is that saying he should win by a landslide is silly. He’s been an incredible home run hitter—but he’s also a terrible fielding first baseman who is slow and doesn’t get on base at an elite clip. Anyway....he WILL win probably unanimously, but he shouldn’t. If people cared about all parts of the game it would be a close race.
Delete@BxJaycobb said: "@Harper Re your pitching plan. Not into it at all. I get that you don’t like starters as relievers, but this is a unique situation..actually it’s unprecedented, as I’ve said as nauseaum, the worst bullpen ERA of any playoff team!"
ReplyDeleteFirst, a minor quibble. No need to say worst bullpen ERA of any playoff team. We have the worst bullpen ERA in all MLB.
Second, and my real response: our bullpen ERA is 5.75. Scherzer's career postseason bullpen ERA (three appearances) is 10.80.
I understand why most people are arguing that we pitch all our starters in a playoff game. But I'm more bearish than even Harper. I don't think we should use any of our four regular starters in relief.
@Ric. I wasn’t clear (and clarified it in next comment). My point was that the Nats have the single worst bullpen ERA of any MLB playoff team in history. Like. There’s never been a playoff team with a pen ERA this high. That’s my comment.
DeleteAnd the “max Scherzers career bullpen ERA” number is one of the most flagrant small sample size violations I’ve seen on this site. We’re talkin probably 2 total innings of relief or something. Max Scherzer pitching in relief is better at preventing runs than the Nats 2019 pen is at preventing runs. That should not be in dispute. The question really is whether max in relief is better at preventing runs than Hudson and Doolittle and Rodney. I think again the answer is obviously he is.
Delete@Harper - I wouldn't discount Rendon that much in the MVP race. He seems to have passed Yelich in most places I've seen (unfair to Yelich given Rendon missed a good bit of time too, but recency bias matters). Boras has run a fantastic shadow campaign to boost Rendon name recognition and boost his AAV (Rendon did the hard work himself). I'd say Bellinger is a favorite just as the remaining of the too early season likely choices, but Rendon has a legit shot.
ReplyDeleteAgree with the rest - Degrom is still Degrom, I've warmed to Davey figuring it out later in the season but really hope he doesn't get MOY.
Let's throw a wrench and use Doolittle as an opener (kidding...or am I).
@Anon. FYI Rendon has no shot to win and will probably finish 3rd.
DeleteDoo as an opener is an interesting idea. The opponent knows that Max or Stras is waiting in the wings, so would they put a bunch of lefties in the lineup for Doo to feast on?
ReplyDeleteLOL WHAT? Writing off Alonso as just a big LUMMOX? The guy has a full 1 pt lead in WAR over the next highest rookie in fangraphs. Almost that over Soroka as well. He has by far the best nickname of all Rookies (the Polar Bear). Almost singlehandedly revived YA GOTTA BELIEVE in Queens (can confirm this as firsthand knowledge). He is an every day player. For a pitcher to win MVP or ROY they should at least lead in WAR.
ReplyDeleteI'm offended for all New Yorkers at this write off, although I am not moved to action.
He is a bonafide slugger, and MLB would be foolish not to give him ROY
@coolsny. Ok dude but Soroka has 5.7 WAR and Alonso has 5.0 WAR by BR so hold your horses—average the two measurements and the two are basically the same. (And by the way, Robles has 4.1 WAR for those folks who occasionally mumble about being disappointed in him. Dudes within a half WAR of Juan Soto this year....by any defensive metric the single best outfielder in baseball in 2019, and it’s not close actually. Guy should be top 4 ROY and is going to be a star even if he improves a BIT at the plate to like .800+ OPS.)
ReplyDeleteMax says on the radio today he is starting the WC game
ReplyDeletealso, to retort, i am in the camp of players who play once every 5 days should not get MVP consideration, so that weighs into my support of Alonso for ROY. i think in a ROY or MVP race the pitcher needs to do much more than be even with the position player.
@BxJaycobb said: "The question really is whether max in relief is better at preventing runs than Hudson and Doolittle and Rodney. I think again the answer is obviously he is."
ReplyDeleteYou said "obviously" the other day also. To quote Inigo Montoya: "You keep using that word. I do not think it means what you think it means."
Is Max in relief better at preventing runs than Hudson and Doolittle and Rodney. I don't think so. You do think so. But it isn't "obvious". Max has made three relief appearances in the postseason. Of course it is a ridiculously small sample size. But he's given up at least one run (six total) in those three relief appearances. He's never pitched a scoreless inning when coming in relief. So yeah, I'd rather go with Hudson or Doolittle. Am I wrong? Maybe. But again, it isn't "obvious."
What is obvious is that if you are going to leave six comments in a span of 16 minutes, maybe just condense them into one comment?
(Fair point about clarifying "worst bullpen in playoff history." I didn't register your follow-up comment.)
Nice FG article about the Nat's playoff history:
ReplyDeletehttps://blogs.fangraphs.com/maybe-this-time-its-the-nationals-year/
I know the focus is on the wildcard and HFA, but i can't stop shaking about the prospect of the Nats letting Rendon walk. It is unconscionable. Can anyone talk me off the ledge?
ReplyDelete@BXJayCobb - you are probably right. I just like being a homer.
ReplyDeleteAlso @BxJayCobb - the BP stats are super misleading. It's highly inflated from the days of Rosenthal, Sipp, Grace, Jennings and Venters. Is Doolittle, Hudson, and Strickland / Rodney lockdown? of course not, but it's not the early season time-bomb.
Folks, how about Austin Voth? He was like, what, 8th on the depth chart in spring training, behind Hellickson, Fedde, and Ross, and now he has 8 starts and a 3.80 FIP. After that wonderful debut against the Braves, he did not do well against the Tigers and Royals (those were the only two games the Nats lost in that 10-2 stretch), and then not too long after that he got hurt. I thought he was done for the year, but he's made a nice end of season comeback and put together some good starts. Does he have the edge for the 5th starter position in '20? It seems that the Nats could perhaps trade him, Fedde, or Ross in the off-season to fix some of their issues.
ReplyDeleteAnother guy to watch in '20 is Rainey. He has very good K/9 and his HR/9 is fine. Its just the really bad BB/9 that holds him back. If he can get his walks down next year, he could blossom into a solid reliever who is young and will be with the team long term. Nice Rizzo "Tanner for Tanner+" trade to get Rainey and 2 years of Sanchez, who finished with 2.5 fWAR on the season (exactly matching his 2018 fWAR) compared with 1.9 for Roark.
ReplyDeleteWell, one more win or Milwaukee loss and we've got HFA. Not that it matters that much. What matters much more is the Brewers and Cards tying to force a game 163. Go Cubs, go Brewers, and go Nats. (In that order for this weekend only.)
ReplyDeleteGood job last night, Nationals. Typically, the only team in the AL Central we can't beat up on is Detroit, arguably the worst team in baseball.
ReplyDeleteNats clinch HFA!!! Who's going????
ReplyDeleteTo Sammy's point, the Nats won all five series against the AL Central this year (if you combine the 2-home, 2-away games against the ChiSox into one series)
I'll be there! LF sec 106
ReplyDeleteI got a ticket in Section 228
ReplyDeleteI'll be there. I think my tix are in section 699 Row ZZZ, but I'll be there.
ReplyDeleteNice WaPo article about the 10 games of the season that most affected the Nats' playoff chances:
ReplyDeletehttps://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2019/09/29/charting-wildest-season-nationals-history/?arc404=true
Who knew that the 'swingiest' game of the season way May 1, where the Nats lost to the Cards at home and had their playoff chances shaved by 13 percent in one day?
Other tidbits: After the Mets sweep that would be the low point of the season, the Nats would have a 3% chance of making the playoffs. To go from that to 92 wins after 161 games and clinching HFA for the WC is wow!
I remember going to the July 5th game against the Royals (aka the 'Lucy Football' game: The Nats literally had at least one baserunner in all 11 innings, yet stranded 19 and lost the game, though Zim did get his 1000th RBI!). I had no idea that their playoff chances were shaved 11% that day.
As recent as Aug 4, the Nats' playoff chances were 45%. Then, the next day, they beat the Giants, the chances jump to 57%, and continued to climb.
The teams numbers for the year do not matter... the team on the field now is a completely different team than the one that went 19-31. The annualized bullpen ERA is irrelevant for the playoffs. The guy with the infinite ERA is long gone, guys who were terrible are long gone, Hudson has been good. Doolittle is rounding back into form after overuse and "injury" (no way DM deserves MOY). Rainey, Suaro and Rodney are usually good when used properly (not back to back or 3 days in row or twice in the same day (geez)... This is a team that since it has been healthy has been on a 106 game pace. They are close enough in talent to the Dodger and Braves that they have almost as good of a shot to get to the WS. Super Exciting. See you Tuesday.
ReplyDeleteI look at the WC game as a game 5 of a DS, or a game 7 of a CS/World Series ALL hands are on deck for at least 1 batter. Now, there's some pitchers I'd prefer to use less than others, some being just because they are better (i.e more of Hudson over more of Suero), or others because they would potentially be starting game 1 (i.e. more of Corbin over more of Strasburg who would probably be game 1 starter in LA), but IF Max allows the first 2 runners to reach base and than cheater Braun hits a 3 run homer and than Thames doubles you have to have somebody at the ready and hopefully if that is indeed the case it is Strasburg.
ReplyDeleteHopefully that isn't the case, and Max is vintage Max tossing 7 innings of 4 hit, 1 run, 12 strikeout baseball and the Nats tee off on whatever mediocre pitcher Counsell sends to the mound to begin the 9th, so we don't have to worry about any of the above and we can set the rotation for LAD.
And 9th should be game, LOL
ReplyDeleteIt’s entirely possible Rainey ends up the Nats closer. He’s got it all. He just has to stop walking people. And Ross and Voth finished the year looking like serviceable starters. The off-season priorities (hope we don’t get there that soon!) will be retaining Rendon and Stras....and reshaping the entire pen basically. Kieboom should take over at 2B. The Nats should resign Kendrick if they can to platoon at 1B with somebody. And there u go.
ReplyDeleteMay, 2019
ReplyDeleteThe baseball season is a marathon. Why don't we just see how it all plays out.
SSLN, are you going to the game tomorrow? I'd like to meet you in person and thank you for all you've done for the community this year.
ReplyDeleteI agree with BxJ's off-season priorities. And, if they can't work something out with Stras, then maybe go after Cole? I don't know what the backup plan should be for Rendon walking. Hopefully both of those guys return to the team!
ReplyDeleteIn other news, here's some good jinx fodder for the Nats from Boz:
"According to the Elias Sports Bureau, the Nats’ 93 wins are the most for a team that was 12 games under .500 at any point during a season since the 1914 Boston Braves finished 94-59 after being 28-40. That Boston club still has a nickname in baseball lore: the Miracle Braves. They swept the supposedly better Philadelphia Athletics, chocked with Hall of Famers, in the World Series."
100+ years!
Wow, here's another interesting tidbit from Boz' article: "Teams that mortify themselves for 50 games, fall near the bottom of the sport, provoke people — including me — to call for the firing of the manager, then play 74-38 ball — which is about as excellent (.661) as the best MLB teams ever play for an extended period — are seriously uplifting."
ReplyDeleteIn other words, after their 19-31 start, they basically went on a "2 wins out of every three games" pace for 112 games (which would be about 37 3-game series'). That is outstanding!
If Stras walks (which I would be surprised), then I could see Rizzo going after Cole (I'd support it in that case). But getting Cole in absence of Rendon? I get it, the more pitching the better, but we need to score some runs. I'd like to see that Rendon/Cole money going after the holes at (presumably) 3B, 2B, and 1B. And.. gulp.. for some relief help as well.
ReplyDelete