Advancement!

After four previous tries, three agonizing and one lifeless, the Nats finally advance in the playoffs.  You’ll hear people say the Nats haven’t won a playoff series and that’s true, but inconsequential in the moment. The Nats, and more so their fans, needed THIS.  They needed a big win in the playoffs that sent them off to face another team.  They needed their signature franchise moment to no longer be a GW G4 HR before an heart-breaking G5 loss. No matter what happens now this win can’t be taken away from them.

About the game itself it really came down to two managers treating a pitcher like something he’s not. We discussed this a good deal before this game but Max isn’t MAX. He isn’t the unstoppable force he’s been for most of his time here in DC.  He’s coming back from injury and for whatever reason particularly vulnerable to home runs. He’s not your HAVE TO guy right now.  He’s one of three and if we were going on recent performance most people felt objectively Strasburg was the one who should start.  But Davey chose Max and Max gave a B/B- performance.

On the other side Josh Jader has been a dominant closer but since the All-Star break he’s merely been very good.  It’s a small distinction but an important one as dominant arms have long saves in planning but you don’t square away six outs for a very good pitcher unless you have to. But Counsell decidedto set this game around Hader for 2 and when he came in obviously having trouble finding spots Counsell had little alternative but to let him try and work it out. It didn’t.

A lot of talk has been about Davey and his performance. I’ve heard phrases like Gepetto pulling strings. You come here for objective analysis Though and objectively Davey was poor. Fair if I’m being generous.  One of the things is Davey didn’t actually have a lot to think about last night. The Nats lack of production, the best pitchers being in, the Brewers general quiet after early, led to a low decision night.  Let’s review them all

Max starts - We discussed this earlier but Stras was the pick. You could justify picking Max over Stras but Stras isn't Anibal Sanchez. You shouldn't be looking for reasons a hot Strasburg shouldn't pitch over a faulty Max. You have three aces. Act like that's true and go with the hot hand.

Line-up - Suzuki has been Max's pitcher for most of the year now. That wasn't really a Davey call. But Kendrick and Cabrera were. Sure they were obvious but you did have to avoid the heart string tugging and telling you to start Zimm.

Max hits -In the third Max was due up and he was doing better. The line-up for the Brewers was heading toward the bottom. I can see the argument for keeping him in. But the Nats needed runs and had two aces to fill-in as necessary. There was no need to keep Max in unless he was cruising and he wasn't.  Subsequently Max would have a line-out, double to start the next inning and then came the 5th

Max 5th - Max was already muddling along (for him) when he walked Shaw to start the inning. With Grandal, who blasted a homer and hit a long fly ball next time up looming. Max should have been pulled. He wasn't.  He got out Grisham and then walked Grandal. Should be pulled. He showed why being unable to put away Moustakas despite having him down 1-2 on three straight pitches. it would work out as Moustakas fouled out and Huira was swing happy but this was an unecessary gamble by Davey

Dozier PHs - The Brewers brought in Suter a LHP which meant if you got to Max's position you'd have a huge at bat that had to be taken by a righty.  That's Zimm's time. Instead Dozier got the call. This is doubly questionable when you figure if the Nats do comeback you really want to pull the old man Howie for Dozier and work him and As Cab in 1st / 2nd D in someway.  Dozier grounded out but Moustakas bailed him out by sailing the throw. Turner would hit the ball well but it was a fly ball out.  A big situation went to their 2nd best option which also messed up late inning defense possibilities. A bad call and I don't see how anyone can avoid thinking this.

MAT for PH - There wasn't a real decision again until the 8th. You had to pull Max for Dozier (deciding to PH for Max was a duh move I didn't even put on here) Stras coming in was the obvious choice. Stras cruised. the Nats never threatened and the line-up had to get back to the pitcher spot before Davey had to think again. You could see what he wanted to do. He wanted Zimm in a big spot to drive in a run and when no one got on he opted for MAT*. This is the batting equivalent on not using your best pitcher in the biggest moment in the game because it's the 8th and what if an even BIGGER moment came up later? You can't make decisions this late on things that might never happen. It's terrible managing. You have to play for now which meant Zimm was the move. instead MAT came up and was given a gift when a ball that 90% probably hit the bat first was ruled a HBP and you can't overturn if it's not 100%.  MAT didn't do his job as much as had the job finished for him. There's nothing about this that says smart move.

Zimm for Eaton - because MAT got on Eaton got his Zimm in a big spot situation and Zimm promptly... flared a bloope to CF off a broken bat.  Zimm didn't come up big. He got lucky. Davey got lucky.

Hudson instead of Doolittle - It wasn't TOO much of a choice, but it had to be made and with Thame up first you could have argued for a Doolittle start to the inning if you wanted. But Davey went straight to Hudson, had Doo warming as a back up. It almost didn't work out. Hudson got Thames but Cain singled off him and Davey stuck with Hudson versus another lefty in Gamel. Gamel hit in on the nose but a little too under it and in the wrong part of the park for that.

Eight decisions. Six in game. How many unquestionably the right ones in the moment? Two I guess?  There's no genius here. No man pushing all the right buttons. It's a guy making the wrong call on a bunch of 25% / 75% situations and it working out. I don't know why it hard to see that.

I also don't know why you care. You make bad moves and they work out all the time. Baseball is filled with 60/40 choices. It's a 60/40, 55/45 game. You want someone that makes the 60 choices all the time but you can go 40 40 40 and have it work out, you can go 60 60 60 and have it not. Hell put three choices out there and chances one of them won't go your way. 

Davey didn't show me anything I haven't seen before. Didn't prove anything. If he has a strength it's not in the managing decisions during the game.  He could be a clubhouse inspiration. That matters too. But let's not squint and stand on a chair and try to make that game into some sort of Master Class on managing.

What this win DOES mean about Davey is that he's definitely back.  I don't see how he isn't. Contract in hand. WC win. Amazing regular season comeback. All the impetus is to keep him.  I guess the NLDS could go disastrously but outside of that you might be making the right move if you fire him but you're swimming against the tide to do it and with a contract to pay out, why bother? Makes far more sense for the team to let that tide take Davey into 2020 and see if that amazing middle 80 games were a seed of something more. 

*that MAT had a HR in 1AB I think is irrelevant here. A nice side note but not influencing or else he would have had MAT on deck all the way.