Why does the Nats offense disappear in the playoffs disguising what would be critical mistakes from a questionable manager? It happened in 2014 as Matt Williams bungled his way through 4 important games in a row and it happened so far in the WC and G1. Yes the Nats win the WC, but on a HBP, bloop, wall single and error they hardly lit the world on fire and we were staring down a “it’s the offense’s fault" much like we are today
Because it IS the offense fault primarily. You can’t win scoring nothing. The Nats has one hit and backed into a run through Buehler’s one inning of wildness. That inning was punctuated by a maddening at bat by Cabrera who swung through two pitches nearly in the dirt bailing out the Dodgers*. No one is asking for this team to bust out 5 runs every game against what we noted yesterday is very good pitching. But 2-3 runs before the 6th is done would be nice
Then there was Corbin who was on and off effective and lucky to get out giving up only two. And Kendrick who saved the defensive butchery we all feared for this singular game.
What did Davey do? Well I can break down a few things but the major mistake was Rodney. Going into the 7th down two Davey tried to sneak in his B options Rainey and Rodney. You can understand why. If they don’t pitch here it could be a week before they see action and that’s too long. So you try to get Rainey through the 7th. If the Nats are still down Rodney through the 8th. Not a bad plan. But down 2-0 is a winnable game so these guys have to have short leashes and you have to try to keep the game close with good match-ups. Rainey walked a man setting up a - next man on you’re out situation. A nice piece of hitting and a little luck put Justin Turner on and set up a change. With Bellinger and Muncy up in the next three the choice was obvious. Doolittle. But Davey hadn’t been warming him. Instead he used Rodney who he had been warming for the above plan. Rodney, who probably should be limited against lefties** got Bellinger, but then walked the next man, and Muncy came up. With a chance to right a wrong he left Rodney in and Muncy got the decisive hit
We can talk about Strickland facing LHB (huge no-no) but this was the big mistake. And the thing is - he almost got away with it.
Anyway tonight we see if Strasburg is really Bumgarner-esque. If the Nats can hit And Davey can manage a much easier (only Hudson and Doolittle!) game.
*much like Seager bailed out Corbin in the first, swinging at ball one in the AB right after he walked in a run
**On one hand Davey like his change against lefties and doesn't have a ton of options, especially in a Corbin started game. On the other out of the Nats pens, no one gets hit harder by lefties that Rodney other than Strickland who should never face a lefty. It's not a big amount worse but you do wonder why you'd go with your 2nd worst guy.
I agree with ALL of this. After seeing all the comebacks, why does Davey refuse to consider using his best arms down two? They can be used again today. This bullpen is much worse than what Williams had in 2014. I'd accept the 2019 Stammen and Clippard, nevermind the 2014 versions.
ReplyDeleteIt was so maddening to see Rodney in to finish the inning, consequences be damned. It was clear, even as he got Bellinger out, that we weren't seeing the good version of Rodney, who pounds the zone and mostly gives up weak contact. Doolittle absolutely has to be the guy for the middle of the order in a big spot.
ReplyDeleteHonestly, sending out Strickland to eat the 8th looked like a good move to me, in that Davey had the sense not to use a good reliever in a game that was basically out of reach. The two (almost three!) homers were bad, but they didn't do anything that Rainey and Rodney hadn't already done worse.
Yeah, I think I would say that, on balance, he managed this game better than he did the WC—it's just that the 60/40 choices he made wrong all somehow worked in that game, and the ones he made in this one (some right, some wrong) didn't.
ReplyDeleteLeaving Corbin in for the 6th was probably the wrong move, but he got away with it I'm guessing based on the thought that he has to be able to lean on his studs to will their way through their whole final inning. Rainey for the 7th, ok sure, he throws hard, not the worst idea. Hooking him after he lets two on? Also the right move, but not a hard decision. But going to Rodney for the middle of the lineup was insane. I guess if you want to twist yourself into knots you could argue that from where DM was standing, he didn't see an offense capable of getting it done that night—but that's an awful outlook to have for a supposedly optimistic manager.
I feel good with Stras on the mound tonight, with the only fear being how long he'll be able to go. If he can only eek out, say, 5 IP, I say you have to give Voth a chance to bridge the 6th and 7th (or even Sanchez?), then turn it over to the two competent (we hope!) relievers. Oh, and score runs. The Cardinals proved last night that you can survive some bullpen meltdowns if you put up enough offense.
100% chance that Zim starts at first base tonight. We may not see Howie Buckner again except for pinch hitting.
ReplyDeleteGomes should be used solely for pinch hitting as well. Why the bluejohnhell did he keep calling for off speed stuff in the first inning when the Dodgers were blatantly not going to swing unless Corbin put something in the zone....and if Corbin's slider is in the zone it's a mistake. If the two guys he struck out hadn't gone all hero and swung at bad pitches there's no telling how many runs he would have walked in. You can't expect the hard slider to be effective if you haven't established that you can nail the strike zone, and Corbin apparently forgot that the distance to home plate is 60 feet six inches and not 58 feet.
To me, this game was bungled by Davey from the start. I understand playing a hot Cabrera over Dozier and Zim/Adams, but we need to be honest that Cabrera is not a good player. Glad he got hot, but that's not sustainable, so what you get is Howie playing out of position and a Nats lineup that grinds out AB's now has 3 guys (Cabrera, Gomes & Robles) who give away ABs. Wrong move against a pitcher who has struggled with wildness over the last month. If you start Dozier instead, not only is the defense significantly better, but Dozier doesn't chase. I get that Gomes is Corbin's catcher, but the moment Corbin comes out so should Gomes.
ReplyDeleteThe Nats caught some really bad breaks from the umpire. The strike 3 calls against Rendon and Kendrick were both egregious and killed rallies. The call against Rendon would have put immediate pressure on Buehler and gotten his pitch count up, which could have been the difference in getting to the Dodgers bullpen earlier. I mean, they really made the case for robot umps last night.
The bullpen management was a disaster. Rainey didn't look bad and if you weren't going to bring in Doolittle, don't bother swapping Rainey for Rodney. Rodney should only be used in mop-up duty at this point. Just an ugly game. The Dodgers are the better team, but you don't have to gift wrap it for them.
JWLumley says it all here. At least compete. It bordered on embarrassing. 7 walks, 2 errors, a passed ball, 2 hits total. I mean. That’s pathetic.
Delete@ Sammy Kent
ReplyDeleteThink it would be a mistake to write off Howie at this point. Got two lefties in a row coming up, and even though Zim hits lefties well Howie hit .376 against them this year.
Howie fucked up on those plays, but I think its more an aberration for him and he can't be expected to have an error on 40% of balls hit his way going forward. Think you bring Zim in as a replacement if it happens again or he looks lost in his first two ABs tonight. But plz don't start Zim in his place.
Can't comment on how DM handled the game. I'm not now, and never have been, a major league baseball manager.
ReplyDeleteWhat I found telling is how the Dodgers managed to get runners 1st and 3rd, then it's easy to get the following runner to 2nd because the catcher doesn't want to throw and let a run score. Saw that several (5?) times last night.
Patience at the plate doomed the Nat's batters, and benefited the Dodgers.
Bottom line is that it doesn't matter what DM does, or doesn't do, if the players (professional players, ya know?) don't execute (like the Dodgers did).
I hope the Nats do better but if they don't, I'm gonna hope like hell that the Dodgers beat SaintLanta to go on to the Series.
The only explanation I have for not bringing Doolittle in is that he, like the Nats starters, needs a clean inning and can't come in mid-inning.
ReplyDeleteIt's worth noting that Dodger fans I've seen online didn't seem to be looking forward to Kenley closing out a 2-run game...
Also, isn't Hudson the guy with the great strand rate? That's the guy you go to to get out of a 7th inning jam.
ReplyDeleteThe more innings that Rodney/Strickland/Rainey/Suero pitch, the better off the Dodgers will be.
It is most likely a product of having multiple relievers that are actually good/useful/reliable/etc., but watching Dave Roberts manage his pen is the pipe dream all Nats fans should crave. Its like the guys in the pen know exactly what their respective jobs are and no matter what the outcome of their performance is, they know when they are expected to pitch and when they are going to get pulled. Must make it a little easier to focus on the job at hand. "You're our lefty specialist, you're our fireman when a guy gets in trouble, you're the set up man for situations A,B, or C, You're the set up man for X,Y, or Z, and Kenley is our Closer..."
ReplyDeleteIt kinda feels like we better score against the starters or Kenley doesn't it?
So, how about moving Howie to 2nd base tonight, and putting Zimm in at first, against the lefty. Cabrera looked awful last night. Howie should be more comfortable at 2nd base.
ReplyDeleteWhat are the odds that MAT starts a game if Robles continues to look bad at the plate?
And finally, just for fun, maybe the Nats should hire Maddon as their bench coach so that he can learn at the side of Dave Martinez.
@ PotomacFan
ReplyDeleteHonestly I don't hate your MAT suggestion. Would give it one more game though.
What struck me last night, in my potentially flawed wine soaked viewing experience, was how many pitches our guys took with no swing at all. Like deer in headlights, except then super aggressive at pitches outside the zone (especially up).
I didn't do a deep dive (or any dive at all) on this but I wonder what the numbers would say.
Yeah, put MAT in, that should propel the Nats to the LCS.
ReplyDeleteThis was such a classic "bad Nats" game. As usual, the starting pitching was decent to good. But because of the horrid BP, Nats need the solid start (six or seven innings, two runs or fewer) AND a good offense (six-seven runs, optimally). When the Nats don't score at least four runs, they almost always lose. Seems the Nats rarely win 1-0 or 2-1 or 3-2 games because of the BP. So when the offense is weak, they can't squeak out a win.
ReplyDeleteSo the formula to win seems to be quality start + strong offense > terrible BP. And if the Nats' offense doesn't show up in this series (need it to start tonight), they will be out of the post-season quickly.
Next year, Rendon or no Rendon (I prefer Rendon, as I am absolutely NOT sold on Kieboom), the BP MUST be improved, and not by taking a series of flyers on guys down on their luck who USED to be good. I'd keep Hudson (if he will sign) and Rainey and maybe Guerra for mop-up (off-topic: I always liked Petit...why did we let go of a guy as flexible as him? His DC year was probably his worst, but he pitched 80 games with a 2.2 WAR this year!) Forget Strickland and Rodney. If Rendon is gone, use that money to get three or four good relievers. Why did Greg Holland not get a sniff in September? His minor league numbers for us were good? Anyway, Craig Stammen is an FA...bring him back.
They got shut out. They had 2 hits. They had 2 errors. Hard to win games when you have as many errors as hits, impossible to win a game when you score 0 runs. Facts are facts. Say what you will about the people Dave used, the relievers he put in, who he didn't take out fast enough, the home plate ump (who was awful for both sides) 2 hits and 0 runs IS NOT going to win you a game. Get the bats to LA, and score some runs off a pitcher, who historically, has been a playoff underachiever and go back to DC at 1-1 otherwise they are probably toast.
ReplyDeleteThe Nats played tired. No excuse. But they WERE tired. The energy level was so low I didn't recognize them. Now if they play the same tonight I will get harsh. Now as to pitching choices. Why not use Voth. He can't possibly be worse.
ReplyDeleteWe need to be better, full stop.
ReplyDeleteI actually feel like we started off okay, then pressed after a few bad breaks. Tony should have been walked in the first. Howie should have been walked in the second, and the 1st and 2nd would have prevented the full shift that allowed them to be perfectly placed for Cabrera's line drive. Then a few bombs that were out anywhere except LA.
We also got some favorable strike calls, so I get it, but frustrating none the less.
If Davey wants to win browny points from me, he should hire Left Shark to give the warm up speech tonight to the team with a clip of Max running out for the win in the 8th behind him.
I love me some Mikey. But you can't start him over Robles, at any point.
ReplyDelete(SM, I'd hold off on the sarcasm though. MAT was the only one who showed up for the 2017 postseason.)
We are talking one game. Even if Robles does nothing tonight, we are talking two games. Robles has been the starting CF all season, and has done a very good job. His 4.1 war ranks right below Bryce Harper's 4.2 WAR. (And I'm fairly certain no one would ever recommend replacing Harper with MAT in a postseason series.)
And it isn't even like Robles was slumping. He hit .269 in September. He hit .294 in the last week. You don't blow up a lineup as a result of one or two games. This isn't a 2017 situation where Dusty started Werth all five games of the postseason after he hit .132 FOR THE ENTIRE MONTH OF SEPTEMBER.
I agree with everyone's comments. Doolittle should have been called to pitch the 7th. Once Rainey got in trouble, Doolittle should have been called to clean up the 7th. That not being the option, I let Rainey finish the inning. He didn't look that bad. Strikeout, BB on seven pitches, a bloop hit that came off a good pitch. He has a better chance to get out of the inning than Rodney.
In fact, it is always apparent quickly whether Rainey is on or off. He's on fire when he's hitting his strikes, and he's a disaster if he isn't. He was throwing strikes last night.
I think someone else mentioned it here before, but doesn't it seem the Nationals let runners advance to second on pitcher indifference or uncontested stolen bases more than any other team. Even when we are winning games 7-0, it seems we let a runner aboard in the 9th, then they take second on pitcher indifference, then score on a single. I think we've lost maybe five (?) shutouts that way. I mention it again because Rodney/Gomes let two runners steal second, and the first came home on a hit that would have not scored him if he was on first.
Outside of Cabrera killing a rally with those two horrible swings, Gomes was the only one I'm worried about. Three strikeouts in ten total pitches. But as I already argued, he had to be the one to start, since he starts Corbin's games and Suzuki can't start all five. But between his ABs and his pitch calling and pitch framing, he didn't really give Corbin a chance. But as others said, you get two hits, you aren't getting the win regardless.
On the other hand, if the Nats were going to lay an egg, it was this game. Nine wins in a row, then getting on a plane, having a nighttime workout, then jetlag, then waking up to immediately play a game... Yeah, if they needed to look bad, this was the one game that it stood to reason.
Things to look for tonight:
ReplyDeleteStarting Pitching: Strasburg getting through the first couple innings without giving up more than 2 runs - usually when he's bad he gets knocked around early.
Offense: Agree with @Ric above - maybe they were tired/over amped last night (although that doesn't explain the WC game). Anyway they can't be flailing around at bad pitches, and if Kershaw is off, they have to make him pay.
Bullpen: Use Hudson as your fireman if you have to. Don't save him for the 9th. That's the kind of mindset we want Davey to have tonight. I guess I get it, Rodney, Rainey, Strickland, its G1, have to get them work, we were down a couple runs. But hopefully DM now has the cover to realize we don't win games that all 3 of Rodney, Rainey and Strickland pitch in. Is Sanchez avail in relief tonight?
Prediction: 4-3 Nats
As bad as that was, at least they combined a lot of terrible play into one game. If they win tonight, they did their job in LA. Strasburg is capable of dominating. The offense is capable of scoring a bunch of Kershaw. And only Doolittle and Hudson should be appearing out of the bullpen. Use Sanchez if u need long relief. Corbin can pitch on short rest in game 4 if necesssary. Stras full rest game 5.
ReplyDeleteLet's go get 'em!
ReplyDeleteContrary to a lot of posts on here, I thought the approach from our 1-5 hitters, specifically, was solid. They made Buehler throw strikes and were able to get some base runners out of it. But when our 6-8 hitters bail on any logical plan at the plate, it screws up the whole process. Look! They’re doing it right now against Kershaw and DM said that was the game plan and they’re executing it. Sometimes, a pitcher is just “on.” But 2 hits? That’s more on our guys not getting timely hits - not the approach at the plate.
ReplyDeleteLooks like DM learned from last night and benched two guys who were utterly clueless: Cabrera and Gomes. I wonder what Dusty would have done?
Stranding runners in scoring position will come back to bite you. As I write this it's the top of the 7th and we're ahead 3-1 and I'm fretting what lies ahead. We've left three or four on base that would make some nice insurance runs had we gotten them in. Please, bullpen, hold on to this one!
ReplyDeleteWait. Wait wait wait. DM took Stras out after 85 pitches in a absolute gem of an outing? His sport wasn’t due up in the order. A LH matchup for Doolittle is really that favorable? Muncy disagrees and so do I. Add this one to the top of our list, Harper. Terrible.
ReplyDeleteSo i get that the bullpen is completely unreliable but what the hell is Davey doing putting Max in relief? Is he out for Game 3, then? What's going on??
ReplyDeleteIt's Max. He will pitch if asked until his arm falls off, for better or worse.
ReplyDeleteUhhh...did they just IBB the tying run on base? What the eff?
ReplyDelete::giant exhale::
ReplyDeleteWhat a game!
ReplyDeleteTaking out Stras was the right move. He's on two days rest, and they were starting to hit him in the previous inning, AND that was a long half inning when the Nats didn't score.
Pitching Max seemed insane, but he delivered! I would have kept him out there to start the 9th, and brought in Hudson at the first sign of trouble.
Walking the tying run: also insane, but Muncy is money, and hey, it worked.
Seager's entire at-bat I'm like, throw the slider, throw the slider, GAAAAH THROW THE SLIDER!!
@Robot
ReplyDeleteGiant exhale is RIGHT. Completely agree about using Max and the IBB. God, it felt like I was holding my breath for the last two innings (what else is new?).
Definitely have some questions about who starts G3 now. I guess it could be Scherzer, with Voth as the long reliever as needed?
I'm happy with the win; the boys did their job.
2nd game in LA was do or die. Martinez played it well.
ReplyDeleteGot a good performance from Strass but pulled him. If the team moves on, he'll be needed.
In relief, he played his 3 aces. Doolittle, Max and Hudson. It worked out, barely. In playoff baseball, barely is good enough. There was no better path to winning a must-win game.
Now two games at home. One game at a time, one game at a time.
A split in LA is a very good outcome. Of course you would have loved to have taken both games, but there was little chance of that happening on the road against a superior opponent. Nats now have HFA. Let's Go!
ReplyDeleteIts nice to see the evolution of Max and Stras. I remember in 2016, Dusty was interested in starting Max in G4 in LA on short rest, but I don't think Max preferred that:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/nationals-journal/wp/2016/10/10/could-max-scherzer-pitch-game-4-on-short-rest/
Relevant quote: "Scherzer has said before he would rather not push on three days’ rest as early as the Division Series. He has never started games three days apart in his career, though he did make relief appearances on three days’ rest in the 2011 and 2013 playoffs, and started three days after the one in 2011. In those appearances on three days’ rest, Scherzer’s ERA is 4.82."
And Stras has never appeared out of the bullpen in the MLB. Now, he's thrown three shutout innings of relief in an elimination game, then pitched a gem on two days' rest!
Nats are taking their horses to the old town road, and riding them till they can't no more
Can't believe i'm going to say this, but DM did a great job managing last night. That is all.
ReplyDelete!!!!!! WHAT?!?!?!? The guy literally walked the TYING RUN ON BASE. To bring the winning run to the plate. Do you know how inexplicably insane that is? I’ve never seen that. I don’t even know if it would make sense if it were Barry bonds let alone max Muncy!
DeleteFor the first time in his post-season life Max Scherzer delivered. Oh boy, did he deliver! So well, in fact, that I would have been happy if Davey had sent him out for the ninth. With our bullpen in the shape it's in, and the sporadic way this team is hitting, Davey is in the unenviable spot of having to manage wholly by the seat of his pants and take his chances. It will, as it already has, cause him to make some wildly unorthodox decisions. If the moves work, he looks like a genius. If not, he looks like a moron and a half. I'm no Davey Martinez fan, and I've had lots to say about him and Kevin Long, but in this type of situation you gotta temper your criticism, IMHO. Not a single one of us, ESPECIALLY the sabermetricians I so despise, can guarantee any better than Davey that our brilliant schemes would work better than his in this environment.
ReplyDeleteFor example, I doubt very seriously that any one of us here would have started Zim at first in game 1. I certainly would not have. But in retrospect it would have been better for us if he had. He couldn't have done any worse than Howie at the plate, and he for sure would have made those defensive plays drunk and blindfolded. But we'd have never known that had Howie played he'd make two costly errors and instead we would still be crucifying Mr. Martinez for being so stupid as to not have his bat in the lineup. Fellas and gals, we're just going to have to buckle it up and hang on.
AND THERE'S GOING TO BE A GAME 4 IN WASHINGTON!!!!!! WOOOOHOOOOO!!!!!!
@JWLumley, Sammy Kent. I mean, this is only true if you are not capable of distinguishing between results based analysis and decision based analysis. I of course have no problem with Davey starting Howie in game 1. It worked out terribly. But it was unquestionably the right call.
ReplyDeleteNow. This game is the opposite. Everything worked out in the end, but he made some utterly INSANE moves. The one that is indefensible—-truly just indefensible—-is intentionally putting the tying run on base and the winning run to the plate. Do you guys understand the depths of stupidity here? The reason I’ve never seen anybody do that....is because it’s DERANGED. Davey took a situation where nothing but a homer would tie the game and the losing the game was impossible....and created a situation where any extra base hit would tie the game, a single would put the tie one single away, and a homer would lose it. What ended up happening of course is hudson (probably appalled by the lunacy of what he was just asked to do) walked Smith, which, again, now meant a flair ties game, and an XBH loses it. Because he decided max Muncy was that* much more likely to hit a home run than smith to hit a double or Smith+ Seager to each get on/hit a single. I cannot tell u how dumb DUMB. DUMB. That strategy was. Again. It worked out. And he did other very smart things last night (I thought his pen management was excellent, although i might’ve tried to get another inning out of Stras.) but that was nuts. Just objectively.
Also. Let me be super clear. When a crucial run is on second base in the late innings and the runner is incapable of scoring on a single, u need to pinch run for them....unless it’s like your best hitter. You have to.
The situation: Zim on second with nobody out. Can’t score on a single. Pirchers spot coming up. U have ur full bench. Pinch run Taylor for Zim and pinch hit Cabrera, then u simply move Cabrera to 2nd (or insert dozier for defense) and Howie to 1B. Davey ended up bunting Zim over to 3rd with Robles and suzuki to second. Not what I would have done. But fine. U still would have a guy who is more likely to score on a sac or grounder. Moreover u could pinch run for Suzuki with Parra or whoever and have Gomes catch. It ended up costing the Nats as suzuki could not score on Cabrera hit.
My point is....davey has all year just never considered pinch running folks or inserting defensive replacements. And it makes no sense. It’s like he’s asleep.
While we’re at it. Um. If you’re going to bunt Adam Eaton any time somebody is on base ahead of him, then don’t hit him 2nd. Move everything in order up one and hit him somewhere else. On the 99/100 times his bunt isn’t perfect (as one was today) it’s stupid and kills rallies by giving up an out. Both because it’s hard (See Eaton stalling what could’ve been a bigger rally by popping one up with turner on 2nd and kershaw melting down in 1st) and because u should have ur number 2 hitter trying to bash. It’s the spot for a great hitter not a a tiny slap hitting bunter. Eaton is fine there (wouldn’t be my choice but he’s fine)....but Jesus with the bunting. No position player should ever sac bunt. You are gifting the other team an out.
Now I’m super thrilled Nats won. Tons of amazing things and performances to discuss. And davey managed the pen well. But good god. He made some bizarre moves.
Honestly, walking Muncy made a lot more sense than you're making it look, Bx.
ReplyDeleteRemember, it's not just putting the tying run on base. It's putting the tying run on base with two outs. Martinez wasn't managing to mitigate the damage if something went wrong; he was managing to give his pitcher the best chance to get that one out and win the game. It wasn't about WPA or anything like that, it was simply "what is the highest probability of getting that one out?" Because he knows that if the Dodgers tie the game, the Dodgers are likely to win the game. That's not rocket science; their lineup is every bit as good as ours and our bullpen is a whole lot worse, particularly with the best pitchers in it already burned; the real-world chances of the Nats winning in extras against the Dodgers are a lot lower than a coin flip. Meanwhile, Muncy is a very good hitter, is already hot in this game, and he bats lefty, which Hudson is vulnerable to (xFIP almost a run higher, for example, K-rate barely more than half, and results about even only due to significant BABIP luck). Smith is a rookie, facing his first postseason series, and bats righty. And if Hudson walks/beans/allows a single to Smith, then he faces Seager, who is also a worse hitter overall than Muncy.
That may or may not have been the right decision in terms of what would overall give the Nats the chance to win the game. It certainly creates the risk, not present if you pitch to Muncy, of a home run immediately winning the game for the Dodgers. But in terms of narrowing the outcome of the game to a single batter-pitcher matchup, it was the right call; the argument should only be over whether that was the right goal to pursue.
I'm with Bx on this one. Davey intentionally brought the winning run to the plate, and Smith is no slouch. He's quite good, in fact. It was an utterly and needlessly reckless decision. And Hudson didn't even get him out! We go from one on, two out to bases loaded.
ReplyDeleteBut all bitching aside, manohman, that was an exciting game. Can't wait for Sunday!
ReplyDeleteThey could have just pitched around Muncy, try and get him to chase. Then if he walks, go after Smith. Intentionally walking him is basically saying Muncy is so dangerous--with a two run lead, and two outs!--that we can't even risk pitching around him.
ReplyDelete@BX, I do agree with you on DM's essential baseball acumen. I don't see myself ever trying to argue that Davey Martinez is a good manager. I have used the word "inept" so many times when talking or writing about him my grandchildren think it's his name. But I will just say it til I die: no sport can be reduced to purely objective numerical analysis. In the end, results are ultimately what matter to me. If it works, it was the right decision. If it doesn't, it wasn't. It's not a morality play. The end can absolutely justify the means. :-)
ReplyDeleteI assure you I am more than capable of distinguishing between results-based and decision-based analysis. I graduated from one of the best public engineering colleges in America. I averaged 100% in Aristotelian logic. In the US Army I scored 95% on an advanced analytical aptitude test in 20 minutes after being told I had three hours to work on it and wasn't expected to finish it. I'm not intimidated by numbers and probabilities. But neither am I hostage to them. I don't mind a little seat-of-the-pants flying...as long as it works.
I wouldn't think I've watched more baseball than anyone here....maybe less than most. IDK, but I've seen managers do things that seemed just as bizarre as Davey did last night. I've seen the tying run intentionally walked.....I've seen the dang go-ahead or winning run intentionally walked. I've seen many a #2 hitter sac bunt in the first inning. Hellzbellz, there's a reason the mantra "Get 'em on, get 'em over, get 'em in" even exists in the first place. I've seen lefties brought in to face right-handed hitters, righty hitters sent up to pinch hit against a righty pitcher. I've even seen a left-hander playing third base in the ninth inning because he could guard the line better. Of course you don't do those things all the time, or even often. But Moses didn't come down from the mountain with "Thou shalt not issue an intentional walk to the winning run" etched on the tablets. Of course it's unconventional. But if it works, I don't care about convention. Just win, baby!
Sammy: no one's saying managers don't make bad decisions. The point is that they are bad decisions, and managers shouldn't be making bad decisions.
ReplyDelete"If it works, I don't care about convention." But it didn't "work." The test of whether the decision was the right one isn't whether they won the game. I'm happy as anyone they won, but let's be honest: they won DESPITE a very risky and unnecessary gamble.
Davy is playing chess and you guys are playing checkers.
ReplyDeleteLOLOLOL
DeleteI’m not saying the game can only be reduced to numerical analysis. Of course not. But I don’t need a bunch of fancy analytics to tell u you should never intentionally walk the tying run on base and bring winning run to the plate. I mean. That is just objectively madness. I’m sorry. There’s just no argument about this. Most baseball decisions have shades of subtlety. So you assume the Dodgers thing the game=Dodgers winning the game. Ok. That’s a little over the top, but let’s assume that. So you think there’s a better chance of (1) Max Muncy, who is very good but hardly Barry Bonds, hitting a dinger, even if he’s pitched to carefully and for example keep ball around outer half etc than the probability of (2) a couple guys, each of whom are above average hitters, getting single-single or walk-single, or hell, wild pitch plus one single, or one double? I’m sorry but the chances of getting a baserunner in from 1st base with 2 outs is not smaller than the chance of a guy hitting a homer. There are just so many more ways it can happen. And you saw one of those ways nearly occur (walk+any bloop hit at all). I imagine it would only make sense to do this if you’ve got literally a pitcher on deck or a hitter who is that bad, compared to an ELITE power hitter in the box, AND the pitcher is not capable of pitching carefully or pitching around somebody. I mean I’ve never heard of this happening. I would even object to pitching around Muncy, but it wouldn’t be INDEFENSIBLE.
ReplyDeleteGreat game, crazy game. Nats should have scored their usual seven in a win with good starting pitching and weak BP coming in. But they gave up the out on Eaton's attempt to bunt, they didn't come through with RISP, they didn't PR when it was needed. Wish we had a utility player who can also catch in a pinch. Maybe THEN Davey would PR.
ReplyDeleteI actually saw Barry Bonds walked with the bases loaded to push the winning run to SECOND base in the ninth inning during his prime with SF. Can't recall who was batting after him, but the other team got him and won the game. So it's been done. I also think when George Brett was hitting .390 or whatever it was, they did it (put him on tying or winning run) with him a few times. But Muncy isn't either of those guys.
But it worked out and Max surprised me with some excellent and efficient relief. Nats might have a chance in this series. DM deserves a LOT of the criticism here but he really has this team pulling for each other in a way no Nats team ever did before and in a way you don't usually see in baseball. I know we've pretty much discredited the "motivational manager" theory, but I think he may be one. I wish he would go to manager school or whatever in the offseason to work on those sudden in-game decisions he seems unprepared for. The BP problem would be partially (or mostly) solved if Rizzo could give DM some decent personnel to work with.
Wow. Some of you ought to apply to manage the Mets, or the Cubs, or the Pirates, or . . . even the Nats after they fire Martinez.
ReplyDeleteI don’t think that walk was at all a problem. If you’re confident you can get the next guys. Do I it. I remember Joe Maddon intentionally walking Josh Hamilton with the bases loaded. Walked in a run. Put the tying run on first to get to a .290 hitter with 28 home runs. Might sound crazy. But this stuff works. Why face power hitter who can hurt you, who HAS hurt you all series when you don’t have to. I actually really liked that call. I know Muncy is not Bonds. But if a guy has already established that he is hot with the bat, and you’re not able to get him out, why take a gamble that HE might beat you. I think what would be INDEFENSIBLE is with first base open, you let a guy who’s already beaten you up clobber the tying home run. Rather than face Will Smith with his 24 extra bass hits ALL SEASON. Yeah, I’ll face THAT guy thanks. Not the big 1B with 35 jacks and who already killing you
ReplyDeleteAgree with JD and Dezo on the Muncy IBB, for all the same reasons. It’s outside the box thinking, something DM’s predecessors never would have done (and no Bx, not because it’s stupid lol).
ReplyDeleteOne thing I’ve been thinking about since Friday’s win was those 17 strikeouts. It really knocks these Dodgers off their pedestal. Of course I was worried with Seager at the plate with the bases loaded, but it didn’t surprise me that he struck out to be honest. In a way, same with Bellinger. I know he had a great year and might win the MVP but thought it was interesting that his avg went all the way down to .305 by the end of the season. Reminds me of Zimmerman’s 2017. A super hot start can carry you all season long. Doesn’t mean you’re this incredible hitter, necessarily. I’d take he under on Bellinger hitting .260 next season. The only guys I truly fear in this lineup is Turner and Muncy, and for whatever reason Joc Pederson. He might be the best terrible hitter I’ve ever seen.
We can beat these guys. A lot of Kyle Schwarbers in that lineup. Big long swings that are prone to K. Bring it on. I am worried about our pen and their starting pitchers. How much we can get to their starters and how much our pen can avoid a meltdown with decide the series.
Absolutely wrong move to start Sanchez. Wouldn't go outside big 3 in this series.
ReplyDeleteOK. Don't start Sanchez and pitch to Muncy. Got it.
ReplyDeleteBad news - Nats' relievers
ReplyDeleteGood news - I get to go to bed early.
I can't believe putting Wander Suero in a high-leverage spot against the Dodgers didn't work out. I mean, *no one* could have predicted that.
ReplyDeleteHowie Kendrick had been Drew Storen-esque
ReplyDeleteIsn’t the playoffs about who F’s up the least? Does anyone actually win these games, or do teams just lose games? Did Soto come up big in the WC game or did Hader and Grisham screw it up? Did the Dodgers crush their way to 7 runs in the 6th? Or did Pat completely fail to put hitters away with 0-2 counts. Did Urias pitch his way out of a jam or did Howie screw it up? I’d love to just tip my cap to these Dajyers, but I can’t help but look at this series with a “glass half empty” perspective.
ReplyDeleteBut should I be thinking differently when Rodney is in the game? You almost fooled me, DM. Almost had me...
Why not use Austin Voth? Can he be worse than anyone else out there?
ReplyDeleteSanchez was almost perfect.....his one blemish on his outing (aside from the Muncy home run) was his long top of the first with 2 walks which hiked his pitch count. So, that's probably why Dave pinch hit for him in the 5th because he was already/almost at 90 pitches. I would've liked him to get an extra inning, would've been a lot more confident if I can get Sanchez to the 6th and than have Doo/Hudson close out the final 3 innings. But aside from that first inning Sanchez was perfect.
ReplyDeleteCorbin sucked, but as usual the offense let us down. I just knew when they had 1st & 2nd with 0 outs still up 2-0 and they couldn't move the runners that it was going to come back and bite them later on because I had seen that movie before....only in the last 5 playoff series. And than after the Dodgers get those 7 runs Joe Kelly walks the entire ballpark and Kendrick with the total TOOTBLAN base running error which killed that inning (not like they were probably going to score any more runs anyways though). Why does this team CONSISTENTLY fail with RISP and less than 2 outs in the playoffs?? Soto's home run was with 2 outs, the 3 runs they had off of Kershaw in game 2 IIRC were with 2 outs after they didn't move base runners. It's beyond frustrating watching the same ass movie over and over again.
Frustrating loss all around, though I have to admit that I never thought at the start of the season I'd be thinking after a playoff game, "man, Davey should have let Anibal Sanchez pitch another inning." He came up big; unfortunately he didn't get a lot of help from his friends.
ReplyDeleteWell, now it's up to Max to take us back to LA and give Stras a second opportunity. Go, Nats!
Here's the thing, through most of the first three games, I keep thinking to myself: We can beat these guys! I haven't given up, but the offense has to come and play (and have fun!)...the next two games are our two best pitchers, so stay in the fight Nats!
ReplyDeleteThat baserunning blunder is all on Bob "Windmill" "Send em to their Death" Henley
ReplyDeleteDid DM really bring in Yan Gomes just to catch Corbin? Or did I miss an injury?
ReplyDelete@JE34: yep, just to catch Corbin. And call the same slider in the dirt on every 2 strike count, and wonder why the hitters wouldn't bite.
ReplyDeleteI think the Corbin outing is a bit more complicated. I agree that Corbin should have pitched the 6th. He came in, and he had good stuff. Bellinger hit a pretty good pitch, then 2 strikeouts with the slider. Then Corbin jams Freese with an inside fastball, and the ball trickles through the right side of the infield. Nothing amiss yet. But then, on 0 -2, Russell Martin hits a hanging slider for a double. Now I've got to be thinking that Corbin is tired, and losing command of his slider. So then Corbin walks Taylor. And Corbin has thrown a lot of pitches, on 2 days rest. TAKE CORBIN OUT! Now, I understand that you really don't have anyone to bring in. But you've got to take Corbin out. Dave M. left him in, and Hernandez hits a sharp double. So, good for Dave M. to bring Corbin in, bad for Dave M. to leave Corbin in for too long.
ReplyDelete@Potomac, so he should have brought in Suero sooner?
ReplyDeleteCorbin was supposed to be the bridge for a reason: if you're saving Max for game 4, and Stras for Game 5, then Corbin is your only chance of making it to Doolittle in the 8th. If he can't do it, there is no other option. The dumpster is still on fire.
Here's the reason I didn't think Sanchez should've started a single game: He can't go deep. The Nationals have 2, maybe 3 innings of relief that they can be counted on for. If you pitch Sanchez you're definitely going to need 3, maybe 4 innings of relief. However, this isn't something I can really fault DM for and I can't fault him for the game yesterday because this bullpen is just so bad that there are no good solutions outside of Hudson. Some will say Doolittle, but he hasn't been really good since June. Sad thing is Corbin was only a strike away from getting out of there. I know he missed with the pitch to Martin, but I really don't like Gomes' pitch calling and didn't like it in that spot either. On a halfway decent team, with a mediocre bullpen, Corbin doesn't get left in to pitch to a righty.
ReplyDeleteAlso, I know the options to replace Kendrick aren't great, but at this point do you sit him? I mean, love Howie, but the guy seems snakebit, the Nats had a chance to get back in the game last night and apply some pressure, but Kendrick ran them out of the inning.
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