Well you can tell from my last post that I think the most important point was a decision by Roberts to keep Kelly in But let’s forget that for a moment and try to make it more Nats-centric.
1) Stras settles down. The Dodgers got to Stras early but like several other games this series - couldn’t deal a knock out blow. This is impt bc of the runs scored yes but it’s also impt bc the Nats can’t stem the tide after something like that. 6-0 will become 8 or 10 at some point and that’s the ball game.
2) Rendon homers. I honestly think this moment broke the Dodgers. I think Roberts was fully ready to let Kershaw have the last 7 outs. I think Kershaw lost focus and gave up a meatball to Soto and had to be pulled and that caused the chain reaction that ultimately ended up with the Nats winning. One swing to set it all in motion.
3) Rendon doubles. When Rendon turned a two strike AB into a double it set up a situation where the Nats were almost guaranteed to score. In extras that’s all you need
Glad you pointed out that Stras settled down. I was going to post something to that effect last night as it appeared obvious (to me). I also figured that the moment I clicked on "Publish" he'd give up a series of dingers and put the game out of reach. Superstitious, I'm not. Prudent, I am (sometimes).
ReplyDeleteIt was definitely a good performance by Strasburg, almost more impressive *because* he had to battle through it. The last couple times he's pitched, he made it look so easy to tear through one of the best lineups in baseball. He labored in this one without his best stuff, with some bad defense, and with what I felt like was a questionable strike zone. he stepped up, and once and for all killed the "wilting flower" narrative.
ReplyDeleteAlso, please pay Rendon whatever he asks. Go ahead and rent the dump trucks we'll need to transport the money to his house.
Had to be worried - very worried - with that start and the HRs. If he fails to go long enough there its over. There aren't enough arms to keep it close. But Stras settled in nicely and ended up doing what he needed.
ReplyDeleteIt really is true that the Dodgers kept coming up to the door, but could never quite close it on the Nats. The Nats on did their level best early to lose it, but were never really out of it and broke out when they needed.
You have Kershaw pitching. And I get why he was pulled, sorta, I guess, but I think if you have a Kershaw, let him pitch. I'm happy it ended the way it did, but man do I not understand that decision.
I was hoping they'd go to Kershaw the whole game. He is very human these days. When Beuhler came out for the 7th, I thought okay, Roberts gets it. But then leaving Kershaw in against Rendon and Soto--it happened so quickly, so you can kinda understand. But Madea has been so lights out, and WAS so lights out when he finally got the ball...you see this a lot, where managers have their plan, and then when it doesn't work they have no plan B.
ReplyDeleteKelly seemed like an odd choice given his struggles, but I guess he just didn't trust Jansen. And it seemed okay after he mowed down the bottom of the order in the 9th. I would have taken him out as soon as he walked Eaton in the 10th. You can't let him pitch to Rendon there.
@Harper
ReplyDeleteTotally right. A cold as ice soulless take but completely correct. The Roberts' decision in the 10th inning will be more famous than any ruling on presidential privilege the Supreme Court makes in the coming year. Truly inexplicable. I really don't think it is outside the realm of possibility that he was shaving points. There is absolutely no excuse! Everyone in the pen was rested and he had two guys up and hot at the time of the Eaton walk. Take Kelly out immediately!
However credit must be given to the Nats' hitters for capitalizing on the mistake and driving a hot fork into the Dodgers' necks. Seriously, past Nats teams (even in this series) might have hit into a double play, or hit a sac fly, or bunted into an out.
Credit to DM for the "stay in the fight" mentality. It's not all numbers in this thing called life!
On to a beautiful matchup with the Cardinals! No matter how much Mike Shildt cusses in the locker room I think we are favored here, but let's keep the underdog mentality!
Excelsior!!!
The Nats struggled mightily against Maeda, and did not look good against Jansen. That Kolarek guy owned Soto. There was just no reason to use Kershaw. It's like Roberts did it as an elimination game ritual. Thank you Mr Roberts! He got caught saving arms for situations that never came. He managed a crazy talented team right out of the playoffs.
ReplyDeleteThat said... Rendon hit a pretty good Kershaw pitch out of the park.
Also to be noted - at what point do you bench Eaton and bring Robles back in? Eaton looking not great offensively
ReplyDeleteUnderrated off-field moment last night was in the final innings when Max Scherzer had left the dugout and was in the bullpen with his glove on. His facial expression was clear that he was not doing it as a joke. Nobody was ever going to use him, but he was still ready. I was laughing so hard. His enthusiasm for the game is unmatched in MLB. It just encapsulates the feeling of this team so well.
ReplyDeleteNot to be lost in all of this, but we allowed only 4 baserunners after the bottom of the 2nd. 2 hits, a HBP, and the Kendrick error. 4 runners scattered over 8 innings. .25 whip, .143 OBP. That's pretty nails right there.
ReplyDeleteMoving forward, really really hope Kurt is okay
@Kenny B - Another great "Max being Max" moment was after Taylor's catch, Scherzer came flying out of the bullpen to join the celebration. He had almost reached the infield before looking back and seeing that nobody else had even left the pen yet! I love how much that guy competes and wears his heart on his sleeve!
ReplyDeleteIts funny we just need to play little better than .500 ball game from here on and we win the WS. We need to go 8-6 (.571) to win it all. We have been 97/168 (.577) so far. Just keep doing that. Go NATS!
ReplyDeleteYeah, major respect to Stras for locking it in and not allowing any more runs after that rough start.
ReplyDeleteThose home runs on Kershaw were glorious.
Wait, wait. Martinez outmanaged Roberts?
ReplyDeleteSM - Roberts outthought himself. Davey has been effectively stopped from doing so by the overwhelming call not to use anyone but Doo/Hudson/ and whatever starter is on their throw day (though bringing in Rainey was his go at it)
ReplyDeleteFirst of all big fan, but “His go at it”? He deserves legitimate credit for his game last night, particularly the Rainey decision.
DeleteI think Rainey vs bottom of order was right moves. Rainey has actually been pretty locked in september and then was fine in game one just a walk and bloop.
ReplyDeleteyoooooooo I know I haven't posted here in forever (though I still lurk) but I just wanted to pop in and say "&%$* yea!!" Also weigh in on random stuff:
ReplyDeleteOf course it's the season where they start 19-31 when they finally win their first playoff series.
Bringing in Kershaw and Kelly for the 2nd inning were the bad moves IMO. Kershaw I understood - it's kinda like when NFL coaches punt when they should instead go for it on 4th - going with your "best pitcher" is the safe move that will shield you from criticism. Imagine if the Dodgers still lost and then he's asked why he didn't use his "best pitcher" and has to talk about pitcher roles and other foo-foo stuff. Obviously not the same as, say, Matt Williams never using his best reliever in a three game series against the Mets during a pennant race because he's the "closer", but similar enough for Roberts to be open to criticism. That being said, the Dodgers had a great pen, it was the 7th inning already, and multiple guys who had the Nats' numbers all series were ready to go. They were the better options over Kershaw. And of course Kelly for the 2nd inning...and Kelly after the leadoff walk and double...bad. I actually think Roberts managed the first four games really well, just not the 5th.
If the Nats are comfortable with Scherzer on three days' rest, he can go 1-4-7 next series. Not saying he will, but it's a possibility.
#resignrendon. So much more important than Harper. Nats IF has too many holes next year without him, even with Kieboom.
So, I'm sitting in a class with MLB at Bat in a tab that I click into now and then during a break in my class. I see that we're down 3-0 on a little box score with no real reference, other than HR and HR as scoring plays. I see that it mirrors the WC game against the Brewers and class finally ends. I get to the car in the 5th to hear Charlie and Dave. Buhler is cruising and it sounds like a party in LA.
ReplyDeleteI got home in the 6th and we did nothing again. Sit on the couch to watch the rest of it play out, just as it has to, right?
10th inning, I moved from the couch to bed and watch the rest. Then HOWIE!
Yesterday was a good day.
Mythra - where are you in class? Hawaii?
ReplyDeleteStill in awe. I actually can't believe it.
ReplyDeleteWhen you take a step back and look at it from a Dodger perspective, it's not just Roberts. You have the perennial MVP in Bellinger who was a non-factor the entire series (save for his defense). Him and Seager were a combined 7-39 (.179) with 15 Ks. Pollock saved probably the roughest dozen ABs of his career for this series (0-13 with 11 Ks). Smith was 1-13 (not sure why Martin only caught one game, in which he was 2-4? Maybe a Roberts blunder there as well?)
Muncy delivered, but just like it would have been impossible for us to advance without Soto and/or Rendon - the same goes for LA and Bellinger. They needed more out of him.
Now... lets see if we can silence Schildt's trap.
I can defend most of Roberts mistakes. Bringing back Kershaw wasn't a big deal (until it was). After the way Kelly plowed through the 9th, bringing him back in the 10th when you don't know how long the game will go isn't a terrible move, gotta preserve arms. Even keeping him in after the Eaton walk wasn't SO bad. But yes, you absolutely pull the dude after the Rendon double and IBBing Soto and bring in somebody, ANYBODY, else.
ReplyDeleteThat was the only true mistake in my book. But as I texted my family chat in the 7th, the game was 3-1...same score at the same time as the wild card game...it had to happen that way.
This is awesome, but I just read a Sports Illustrated article about Kershaw that was probably one of the saddest things ever written. I don't get why people blame him. Yeah, he hung a pitch to Soto, but he also got them out of a jam and the pitch to Rendon wasn't bad, it wasn't even a strike.
ReplyDeleteAlso, I fully admit that I thought when it went to extras that this was just some new and crueler way to lose. Howie was great, but Harper has it right, the real blow was Rendon's double. (Side note, MLB needs to do something about that wall at Dodger stadium, Eaton probably scores on the Rendon double if not for the ball getting stuck. It's 2019, build a wall that the ball won't get stuck in Fodgers). The Nats were chasing everything Kelly was throwing in the dirt and Rendon had just missed one of the first center cut fastballs Kelly had served up, that double in the 10th is what stemmed the tide.
Finally, this series was like an infomercial for robot umps. Buehler was wearing out that breaking ball a couple inches off the plate and with that box TBS uses it's easy to see how bad calls really affect ab's and the game overall.
The Nats should beat the Cardinals. They're the better team and are the better matchup for the Nats.
Also, Scherzer running out of the bullpen was great. He eventually looked back like a little kid, saying, "Come on guys. You guys coming?" Max Scherzer encapsulates the little boy in all of us and he reminds me of a little leaguer in a grown man's body.
ReplyDelete@Unknown 9:41 - The guys in the pen didn't even know that they'd be invited to the celebration. After all they did to almost prevent it from happening . . . I guess ya gotta have them there since they are, officially, on the roster.
ReplyDelete(Too cruel? Maybe.)
@OlePBN, yes: Seager was godawful at the plate. How many times did he strike out on sliders in the dirt? Bellinger was great in the outfield, but he could not deliver when it mattered. Not to pull a Sammy Kent or anything, but that guy is all uppercut. Whatever happened to trying to hit line drives?
ReplyDelete"I can defend most of Roberts mistakes. Bringing back Kershaw wasn't a big deal (until it was). After the way Kelly plowed through the 9th, bringing him back in the 10th when you don't know how long the game will go isn't a terrible move, gotta preserve arms. Even keeping him in after the Eaton walk wasn't SO bad. But yes, you absolutely pull the dude after the Rendon double and IBBing Soto and bring in somebody, ANYBODY, else."
ReplyDeleteYeah, to be fair, I think some of these things are what Harper called the 60/40 calls. Kelly was cruising, Kershaw fell apart before anyone had a chance to see what was happening, and if you have questions about your closer, then.. ok, i'm out of excuses there.
Other topic - the unfair thing about Kershaw is that he'll be tarnished like Bill Buckner for this. He's a GREAT, first-ballot pitcher. Thing is, he's merely very good in October. So what? A buncha dudes who couldn't throw to first base are going to spend their lives saying he sucks. That just pisses me off.
I think the Nats bullpen is pretty awful and it is going to be much more difficult to hide them in a 7 game series. The Cardinals bullpen isn't great but is better than ours. The Cardinals have to be loving life bc now they have home field advantage. Their starting pitching is pretty close to the Nats. I don't think the Nats should be favorites. I think they can win, but I think the Cardinals are the more likely team to advance. I'd say 55-45.
ReplyDeleteLatest odds have Nats favored over Cards.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.espn.com/chalk/story/_/id/27814227/washington-nationals-favored-st-louis-cardinals-reach-world-series
My impressions (from the Watch Party at Nationals Park):
ReplyDeleteStrasburg giving up two runs in first two ABs didn't concern me nearly as much as the looks in the Dodger's dugout. The Dodgers looked loose, like they were just enjoying playing the game of baseball. That was a vibe I feared. I wanted the Dodgers to play tight. They didn't look tight.
After the third run I wasn't worried, because it was still early enough to trust our offense. And I still wasn't worried about Strasburg. How many times in 2018 and 2019 have we seen him get hit early, but settle down. Now, in 2016 and earlier, it rattled him and more often than not led to disaster. But like Harper (or a commenter?) said earlier, I didn't want the Nats down three runs. Two runs and you feel you are one swing away. Three runs and you feel you need to put things together.
Happy when our sixth hitter got a hit. Thanks Zimmerman. Want to show Buehler is human.
I was very discouraged after the first three innings. Not because we were down three. Not because the Dodgers were playing loose and you could see they expected to win. But because baseball is a game of inches. The Muncy HR cleared the park by less than a foot. The Hernandez HR cleared the park by a couple of feet. On the other hand, Rendon's first out missed being a HR by three feet. Soto's first out was a step away from being a lead off double (major props to Hernandez). In a season, these close plays even out. But in a game 5, it just seemed like another Nats postseason elimination where all the close calls went one way. I was down, and whined to my girlfriend about how they were catching all the breaks.
Happy when we score a run in the sixth. Now we are only behind by two.
Rendon's HR was nice. Behind by only a run. It was a good pitch, nothing for Kershaw to be ashamed of.
But Soto's HR! That was a blast. Clearly Kershaw was rattled by his previous pitch. And bam. That sucked the air out of Kershaw, the entire Dodger's dugout, and Dodger Stadium. The looks on the fans's faces... they knew. They knew what Nationals fans knew in the later innings of Game 5 in 2012, 2016 and 2017.
So it isn't that I was overly optimistic we'd win this 3-3 game. I was optimistic, but cautious. But Dodger fans were convinced they were going to lose. I guess that comes from the pressure of being the favorite? Or losing in a WS elimination game two years running?
No need to relay what I felt in the 9th and 10th. Everyone here felt the same as me.
My two favorite moments watching the TBS telecast on the Nationals scoreboard? The Dodgers dugout jumping prematurely over the rail to celebrate the Will Smith flyout. (I missed the bat flip.) And a Dodgers couple exiting Dodgers Stadium in the top of the tenth, congratulating fans in Nationals jerseys on their way out.
My favorite moment perusing twitter at 2AM because I was too jacked to sleep: listening to the TBS telecast of the final out. As MAT rushes to the ball the announcer starts to say "And that ball is going to drop in for a single" but then realizing the catch was made and shifting mid-sentence to "And that ball is going to... be caught."
I certainly don't feel sorry for Kershaw for the homers, but I absolutely agree that the criticism of him is terribly unfair. As someone else already pointed out, Anthony Rendon hit a darn good pitch out of the park. Whether he was sitting on the offspeed breaker or saw it really well or just got lucky, he deserves credit for hitting a pitch that makes most batters look like an idiot if they take a swat at it. The second-guessers and particularly the Dodger fans that are giving Kershaw hell over those dingers need to recognize the skill of the batters a little more and criticize the pitcher a lot less.
ReplyDeleteI said yesterday just win, baby. I don't care how, just win. Well, I didn't care how, but by gosh that was a mighty fine way. So happy to see Howie come through at the most critical moment in his entire career by his own reckoning. When he first hit it I didn't really think it was going out, but I knew we had a run in at least. When it cleared the wall my bed suddenly turned into a trampoline.
@Sammy Kent. That’s true re Rendon. But the Soto homer was the one that tied the game. And it was possibly the worst pitch I’ve ever seen Kershaw throw in his life.
Delete10th inning
ReplyDeleteI ran to one end of the room yelling "THAT'LL SCORE A RUN!!!"
I ran back to the other end of the room yelling "FOUR FKNG RUNS!!! WHOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!"
Best moment of my sports fandom by far. I've seen superbowl wins and not been as happy.
@Zimmerman11. It was very possibly the greatest moment of my life. LOL.
DeleteIt bugs me that Rendon slashed .412/.455/.765 for the series, and in game 5 got extra base hits off three different pitchers including Buehler, and the only story I see most places is about Kershaw choking. I mean, that Kershaw pitch Rendon hit out was not exactly a meatball. So, thanks for giving him some recognition here.
ReplyDeleteMy wife was in the bathroom. When Rendon homered. I ran to tell her to stay there. Just as I got back to the living room, Soto homered. I ran back to tell her to stay there. She's still there.
ReplyDeleteThis is the best post that has ever appeared on this blog.
Delete^^now that's funny
ReplyDelete@Harper - I take graduate classes from 7pm-10pm on Tuesdays and Wednesdays. However, I was taking classes in England back in March/April, so this schedule beats trying to watch Nats games from midnight to 3am GMT for 7pm home games.
ReplyDeleteMy day yesterday was: up for work at 6, work 8 til 5, class from 7-10, home by 11. HOWIE! followed by Doo! at 1am. Still was a good day. Someone pass the coffee!
All I have to say in this post is one thing. Not signing Rendon was going to be inexcusable even if Rendon wasn’t great in the playoffs. But now the Lerners seriously should be uniformly bashed by every writer and pundit in MLB if they don’t just get this the hell done. Worth noting. Cody Bellinger will probably win the MVP this year and Rendon won’t. I’m not sure I have a quarrel with that outcome—-Bellinger had a better year overall, albeit a more inconsistent one. He clearly is an incredibly talented all around player and I was impressed with his defense and base stealing this series. That said.....wow did Rendon out play him. Rendon played like the best player in the league and Bellinger just choked at the plate basically all series. Against good pitching sure, but Rendon faced great pitching too. You just—-I’m sorry. You have no excuse. You have to have the best offer, if necessary the best offer with room to spare. At some point doesn’t this franchise want to have a superstar position player spend his career as a Nat? (no Zim doesn’t count, he only had half of an incredible career.). More importantly, it seems fairly evident that—whatever happens this postseason——this team with a vaguely competent bullpen can beat anybody, as long as you take care of Rendon and stras, both of whom richly deserve it.
ReplyDeleteThe Lerners should offer Rendon just enough money to surpass the Arenado extension (7/234).....so offer him 7/240. If they need to defer some money, fine. 7/240. They could have locked him up for 6/180 before the season, but they didn’t because they’re fools. So Just. Do it.
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ReplyDeleteIs there a question over who to start in game 2? Is Davey just waiting to make sure max and stras recover well enough to go on normal rest in games 2,3, and if they are wasted, insert corbin in game 2? Is that the question?
ReplyDeleteThere is another sport that has: OUTS, RUNS and INNINGS. What is it?
ReplyDeleteIf you have Babe Ruth, and Willie Mays; they have Don Bradman, and Gary Sobers.
The other sport is as Stats driven as baseball and lot of history. Its played in VA, MD and very popular in Philadelphia.
There is a rumor that Rendon is not looking for a long term deal and does not want to play baseball into his late 30's, but instead wants a high AAV deal. If that's the case, the Nats should just give him what he wants as there's much less risk in a shorter, higher AAV deal. If that's not true and he wants Arenado money, perhaps the Nats should give it to him, but I wouldn't be totally upset if they didn't because those deals rarely work out on the back end [see: Zimmerman, Ryan and Werth, Jason].
ReplyDeleteI could totally see Rendon being that guy that doesn't wait until he's got nothing left before he retires.
ReplyDeleteEveryone is rightfully pointing out that Roberts blew it with his BP use. He did a little bit of Showalter (saving guys for the chance the game went deep into extra innings, while jeopardizing the current inning) and a little bit of Davey (using a guy for two innings who is just not effective when used that way not reacting in time when trouble started, or using a guy he "believes in" like Kershaw). But the other side of this is that the Nats did execute, they didn't choke, they didn't freeze. They came up big at the highest pressure moments. Like Max doing better than he had in previous post-seasons. Like Soto showing he can handle the big stage. And Rendon, and Stras and Zim/Howie having big moments. Great stuff.
ReplyDeleteI agree that DM's "better BP strategy" was in part caused by the fact that he simply couldn't put in Strickland or Rodney, no matter what the situation, so he had to manage with his best in every inning. His limited choices forced him to do the right thing. If the game had gone 12-13 innings, it's unlikely that the Nats would have won. So DM tried to win NOW, and it worked.
This season has been about as much fun as I've had since I was a kid as a fan. I hope the Nats' run continues.