Ok, ok. I'll stop saying the Nats should get Frazier. Geez. Replace all that with Thames I guess.
Last year discussion revisited
We expected and got Trea all day. There was a little worry after 2018 that Trea could be an average hitter and an average hitter can put up a below average year but even then he'd be cheap, he can field, and he can run. He's a starter. The good news is that he didn't have a below average year, he went in the other direction. Like everyone he hit more homers, but also walked less and struck out more. Defensively the one season "THE BEST" that I warned you not to pay much attention to, revert back to the usual "He's fine" level. All in all a very positive player considering position and cost. There's probably good reason to think he won't be a star and the half-season we saw in 2016 was the best he can be but that's not really worrying.
What is worrying is we saw when he's hurt the Nats don't have a good plan. Difo started a lot when Turner was out early and he was so bad they went with not carrying a back-up SS for a good portion of the time when Turner was healthy. Kieboom spent the other time there and he wasn't good and is wanted to play 2B.
Presumed Plan :
Turner
plays short. A FA shortstop is on the roster to back him up.
Reasoning on Presumed Plan :I hope I don't have to explain why Trea should start. If you rank SSs he doesn't look that great. Middle of the road in the field, lower Top 10 in hitting. But SS is deep right now and Trea is a very positive player in this very competitive position. Depending on how you put things I can see him as your #3 SS in the majors or the #8 but anyway you slice it he starts.
But last year he again missed major time. The Nats did not have a good plan in place for this and suffered for it. That's why I think they take the time to bring someone in. I think, in line with yesterday's plan this guy will also cover back-up 2B for Kieboom and free them up to spend money on other back-ups, positions, and the pen.
Problems with Presumed Plan :The big issue is the SS field is not deep. There are four FA SS and while they are all decent choices, they are likely to be grabbed up pretty quick. I think everyone's thinking is the same here. Watch Didi sign somewhere to start, try to catch the slick fielding Iglesias as a back-up. A lot of teams are going to be disappointed because Iglesias can't play for 10 teams. After that there will be a scramble for Jordy Mercer (eh) and Hechavarria (eh) and then... nothing. If the Nats don't act quick they can supplement from the deep 2B FA class but the fielding will suffer
So act fast or suffer when Trea gets hurt and Trea will likely get hurt at some point given his history
My take : The Nats are dumb if they don't do a better job backing up Trea. History tells us that. Should they bother to act fast and overpay? I don't know. Depends on what their overall strategy is here. It doesn't look like they are acting fast on the pen and its quite possible having both Rendon and Strasburg in discussions has slowed everything else down. So I'm worried it'll be Difo again. Better than that would be Kieboom and a solid back-up for him. Then if Turner gets hurt you slide Kieboom over and the decent back-up in. That's probably the smarter play. But still I'd rather keep Kieboom where he is if possible.
I have no issues with Trea the starter as long as he's here. He's not quite as good as you think but he's also slightly more important that he should be. His skill set (speed) add something to the offense it lacks when he's out. He puts pressure on the D and the pitcher whenever he doesn't strike out. I'll note I'm not enthused by the direction of his stats and can easily see a straight average year coming in 2020 but again, that's still a starter in 2020 and we can worry about 2021 after 2020.
Out of the box suggestion :
I have none. I guess maybe re-sign Dozier and let Kieboom back-up two positions rather than start? Nah that's not OOB. Really my 2B suggestion is the OOB suggestion here. Trade for Lindor, move Turner over.
"Better than that would be Kieboom and a solid back-up for him. Then if Turner gets hurt you slide Kieboom over and the decent back-up in."
ReplyDeleteGiven the names of the available SS and 2B on the market, this has to be the dominant strategy, no? The worry, of course, is that Kieboom can't really play SS long-term. I suspect he can be fine over there for short stretches, but it may be a problem if Trea is out for two months or more.
Yeah, other than the OOB strategy (which doesn't suck so long as we don't completely nuke the pen) the idea of making Kieboom the backup SS when Trea is out seems like the best plan; the market for a backup 2B seems a lot deeper than the market for a backup SS. And if Kieboom *can't* play then at least we'd be looking to plug the gap with a backup middle infielder to replace him, which is the situation we'd be in now anyway.
ReplyDeleteBasically, it's nice to have a solid player in Trea. 3.5 fWAR last year in only 122 games, and if we're really lucky the finger led to some of his defensive problems and he'll be better this year now that he's had the surgery.
SS and OF are gonna be easy for you, aren't they? I guess maybe there's some moving parts with bench OF.
ReplyDeleteIf the Nats are willing to spend the money, I think they should resign Rendon (not my money), and get that lefty to start 1B while Zim is the platoon backup and both are first guys off the bench when not starting and against off-hand relievers. This leaves only one person to backup the 4 5 6 positions unless you want to go with 4 OF (or get a hybrid). So I think this, combined with Kieboom's not proving anything at the major league level yet, behooves the Nats to go out and get a top backup infielder. Someone you feel comfortable giving 400 AB to. Someone who can start 2B and not kill the team if Kieboom fails, or start any IF position short-term if there's an injury. Most likely this player won't be great at SS, so Kieboom is the short- and medium-term backup for SS. Difo gets stashed in the minors and becomes the backup if there's an injury (does he have options? Would he get claimed?). This might be enticing to someone who is maybe starter-worthy as a stop-gap for a bad team.
Of course, this plan requires spending $$ on Rendon, a capable lefty starter at first, and near starter money for a super-sub. But it makes the Nats appear in real good shape for 2020 without doing the monopoly money approach (such as trading for a top expensive 1B).
*I meant, nuke the farm, not the pen, in that last post.
ReplyDeleteIf Rendon leaves, should the Nats take a look at Gregorius? MLBTR speculates he might be amenable to a one year deal and he was a top tier player as recently as 2018.
ReplyDeleteCatcher just become easy too... SIgned early Yasmani???
ReplyDeleteThis is an area where the expanded roster will help. The Nats can bring up another viable infielder instead of having the thirteenth pitcher in the "26th" spot if Turner gets hurt. There's no way there won't be a guy on the roster with options.
ReplyDeleteTurner hates taking days off, and played hurt most of the season, I don't see him needing a backup, so a 2B is fine.
I think my OOB would be Luis Garcia playing really well, and competing with Kieboom for those at bats. The Nats have been very aggressive in his development.
ReplyDeleteAs Anonymous @9:09 noted, Grandal is now a White Sock for 4/$73M. That takes him off the wish list of...well, honestly every team that's not the Phillies could have used him. (Maybe not the Royals just 'cause Dayton Moore's kind of weird about how good his veterans are.) It'll make it harder for Harper to do his OOB idea for catcher, since, well, he and Realmuto are the only guys in the league who are genuinely outside-the-box-thinking worthy, so I look forward to creative thinking!
ReplyDeleteDezo - I noted that in the NL East the Braves, Nats, and Mets are all stuck in the last year of multi-year plans in 2020. They could have signed Grandal, yes, but I think they were all more likely to roll with some version of what they have and look to 2021 for improvements (Realmuto) that's the real harm in the Grandal move - he's now off the market for likely the remaining good years of his career and catcher isn't particularly deep.
ReplyDeleteI wonder about Travis D’Arnaud as a Nats possibility. He’s one of these players who has the skillset to be a top 10 Catcher but is almost guaranteed to get hurt. Except one of these years he’s going to stay fairly healthy and a team is going to grab an all star catcher year. I think a D’Arnaud/Suzuki pairing would work well. Because although D’Arnaud is too good for it to be a time share, it will END UP being a time share because he is so injury prone. If he is amenable to a reasonable 2 year deal, I would be intrigued by that.
ReplyDelete@Harper Wait, you’re saying Turner is #3 or #8 SS in MAJORS? I think that’s too generous. The majority of the best shortstops are bunched in the AL. Without question, he is the best overall SS in the NL East. Then in the remainder of the NL I think you certainly have to rank ahead of him (in rough order): Tatis and Baez, with likely Seager and Story ahead of him too. So he’s something around 4th best SS in NL. But then in the AL, he’s not as good as (in rough order): Lindor, Torres, Semien, Correa, Bogearts, and *arguably* Polanco. So I think Trea Turner is fairly ranked as something like 4th/10th. He’s in the top third of baseball starting shortstops. Stay healthy and one of these years he’ll have a .290, 20 HR, 50 SB, 5-6 WAR year and make the All-Star team.
NOTE: obviously when Bregman plays SS he is better too. And keep an eye on Bo Bichette if he sticks at the position in Toronto.
DeleteFor the Nationals, Trea is perfect. I don't know what people want from him, he batted .298 with a finger that didn't work. The team does not win without him. He has an outsized effect on this team's success that somehow stats belie. His speed puts him in a special niche that few others players can fill. Watching Robles and Turner run the bases when Trea hits one to the gap is a spectacular that we see too little of in baseball today. You can take the others - for this team Trea is the perfect SS.
ReplyDeleteExcept for @mike k, not a lot of love for Carter Kieboom today (or Tuesday's 2B discussion). Seems he's either a place-holder for Luis Garcia, OOB trade bait, or under a Damoclean perform-or-else sword.
ReplyDeleteBut as @mike k has outlined, Kieboom's been a good soldier as he's moved up the prospect ladder. This throughout the rehab assignments, the humiliating demotion to AAA, and getting jerked around from SS to 2B and even 3B.
Whatever else you think of Kieboom, let me note one remarkable skill: His ability to score runs.
Kieboom draws walks, hits for average and has decent power (in addition to 16 Ks and 2 HRs, he walked four times with the Nats). He's not a base stealing dynamo, but he's smart and has sharp instincts. And though the Nats' farm teams are bereft of big RBI bangers, Kieboom has scored tons of runs at every minor league level.
No single season number stands out (seasons are short, or he was promoted, or he was on rehab assignment). But in 329 minor league games, Kieboom scored 226 runs. What's that mean? Projected over 162 games, Kieboom scored 111 runs.
Big deal, it's the minors, so what does THAT mean?
Well, look at it another way: Robles scored 274 runs in 384 games, or almost 116 runs over 162 games. How about Trea? 176 runs in 277 games, or 103 runs over a 162-game schedule. Soto? 105 runs over 162.
There are probably a dozen ways to assess Kieboom's major league potential, none definitive. But scroll through the minor league runs scored/162-game projection of current major leaguers and draw your own conclusions. (I'd do it for you, but I have to catch up on my foot-dangling.)
In any case, I wouldn't discount a solid career as a big league regular for Kieboom, the kind of dependable player every ball club needs to remain competitive.
If folks are really dismissing the idea of Kieboom as a solid starter or better based on like 15 games in the big leagues they’re being foolish. He’s a highly touted prospect who has succeeded everywhere he’s been given an extended chance. Not everybody gets called up and kills it immediately. Kieboom could be a huge part of the Nats future, and as of right now is definitely more likely to be a big time player than Garcia. I’ll be reserving judgment on Kieboom for a while.
DeleteOne thing I learned about Trea this week is that he does have an outsized effect on the offense. People love to bring up "The Nats win 70% of the time when Trea Turner scores!" but that's devoid of context and not very interesting. I looked into it, and that's pretty much always true of leadoff guys, but it's false causality. Leadoff guys score when the team plays well and is a little lucky. However, Trea did lead the league in run scoring % (qualified), scoring 42% of the time after reaching base. League average is around 32%. Trea's OBP is fine but a little underwhelming, but his pop is pretty good. So the whole "Trea Turner is the motor that drives the Nats offense" narrative is both ill-considered and kinda right, which is neat.
ReplyDeleteAlso, in 2016 and 2018, his RS% was around 37%, and in 2018 it was 45%. He's always been above average and twice elite, so it's pretty safe to say that some combination of his speed, baserunning acumen, and good teammates make him an unusually good run-scorer, although how much each of those things contributes is unclear.
ReplyDeleteJoe Dillon, former Nats assistant hitting coach, to the Phillies to be their hitting coach
ReplyDeleteI find Trea a frustrating player to watch, because he could be so much better than he is. He has elite speed, obviously, but he's always trying to jack home runs. His pitch recognition is poor--although maybe it just stands out as poor in comparison with Rendon and Soto who are among the best in the game (and Eaton too, I suppose). Still, he swings early and often seems to be guessing, just hoping to run into a fastball. He always seems to strike out on three pitches--not ideal for a leadoff hitter who should be working the count. If he gets the fastball, he can connect and run for a long time, but most pitchers know to throw him junk in the dirt.
ReplyDeleteNot to say that he isn't a good player, who can have flashes of brilliance, and a good defender. I just hope someone gets through to him that he needs to shorten that swing and let the ball get deeper. If he can do that, he can be something special.
I actually think Trea has an extremely flat bat path and a fairly short swing and if he became a singles hitter only its not clear he would be better even if his average went up to like .310. Pitch recognition and approach are also skills. So it’s not like you can hugely improve those. Its who he is. The only change I would make with him is I would have him possibly try to eliminate the leg kick.
Delete@Mr. T, the three pitch strikeout is so hard to watch. For his career, he's right at league average for pitches/PA at 3.89, and last year a hair above. I think the trend you're seeing is probably more confirmation bias than reality, but it feels right to me anyway. Three sliders low and away to Trea seems as good a way to get an out as any.
ReplyDelete@Mr T,
ReplyDeleteTotal agreement. As my favorite Yogi quote goes, baseball is 90% mental and the other half is physical. The number of times I've watched Trea swing first pitch after the 9 spot walked or tried to steal a base on a fastball count or wound up for his stupid jump throw when setting is feet would've been sufficient is infuriating. The dude has teh raw skills, but he needs to get in touch with the more "cerebral" part of the game. He could learn a thing or two from his "favorite player". He's got the ability to be one of the best shortstops in the game, he just needs to train those baseball instincts more.
@Josh, I think you're right--confirmation bias and recency bias too probably, given his playoff performance.
ReplyDeleteWas anyone else looking at Abreu as a potentiall pickup (at 1B) if Rendon left (with Kieboom moving to 3rd)? Whitesox mean business.
ReplyDeleteDoesn't sound like he wanted to go anywhere... and I didn't see he'd already signed his QO... but 3 yrs 50 mil was a good get...
ReplyDeleteI guess Wilmer Difo is so lowly regarded that maintain status quo is an out-of-the-box suggestion. Fine. That's my suggestion, be it out-of-the-box or not. Maintain status quo. Trea starts, Wilmer is the backup. Don't spend a dime looking for anything else. Some of y'all make it sound like Difo is a completely skill-less scarecrow in a baseball uniform. That's silly. He's not Ozzie Smith....or even Trea Turner...but he's adequate for what we need: a serviceable backup and occasional starter. Sometimes the better is the enemy of the good.
ReplyDeleteThe Nats would likely do better with literally anyone besides Difo. He was worse than a replacement player last year, which means that a guy from a AAA team would have been as good or better. The projections have him at .1 or .2 above replacement for 2020. A replacement player could luck into that WAR easily.
ReplyDeleteMy guess is Rizzo does nothing until midseason. Then he finds a reasonably competent player that can cover either SS, 3B, or 2B depending on where the most need is. Which they need depends on if Rendon can be retained or replaced with someone decent, if Turner is healthy, and who the 2B starter is.