Last year discussion revisited
I assumed last year that the Nats would bring in someone to start (via trade or FA) and the rest of the schlubs would fight for a back-up role. Ideally that meant Grandal or Realmuto but there were a couple riskier options for a full-time role (like Ramos) out there as well. Given that I thought they'd punt on catcher until late, I suggested getting two vets to man the position and platoon. Which is what the Nats did! Not the two I suggested (McCann and Lucroy) but instead Suzuki and Gomes came in.
How'd they do? ehhh. Suzuki was supposed to be the hit no-field guy and while he didn't field (don't ask him to throw anyone out) as "planned" he didn't hit as well as they hoped. It was still good enough given the low bar catcher is set at but they were certainly hoping for more. Gomes was worse. Brought in with an eye toward being a long-term solution, Gomes reverted from a maybe average bat (for a catcher) to a terrible one. As the field first guy he didn't come through there - at least not as the Nats would have liked. He didn't frame as well and had a career high in passed balls (but objectively was still pretty good).
All in all catching was a small problem for the Nats but in the scheme of things it's a problem for most teams right now and with no cheap and easy solutions mid-season the Nats just let things go and hoped it wouldn't end up mattering. And it didn't!
Presumed Plan : Suzuki and Gomes redux
Reasoning on Presumed Plan : Suzuki is signed, is well liked in the clubhouse and for a catcher still hits well. There could be a wall coming he's going to hit but there's no reason not to try it again. Gomes was released and then resigned for slightly less money. The pieces are there. They are going to use them.
Problems with Presumed Plan : This plan is nothing but problems. Suzuki hits well for a catcher but is almost to the point he shouldn't be playing catcher anymore. They can probably fudge it for another year but any further drop in hitting and it gets real questionable what you are even doing with Kurt. Gomes was nearly unplayably bad at the plate last year and showed some drop behind the plate. If that drop continues it gets even more questionable what... well you get the point.
My take : Oooh I don't like this. Gomes has pretty much solidified himself as a terrible hitter, though some may cling to one hot month to finish the year. I go with the deep history of not hitting and think it'll happen again. I think he'll field well again (I think the PB high was in part dealing with a whole new set of pitchers, and mainly one in Corbin, who depends on throwing sweeping sliders) so I can see bringing him back but 5 million is too rich for my blood, 2 years is a year too long, and as a quasi-platoon instead of a back-up I'm not thrilled with.
I'm low on Suzuki for next year mainly because of his age and the lack of improvements seen the last few year despite the fairly light workload. This is a guy aging into a back-up role and will probably suffer next year even in a platoon. The question is whether it's mild - in which he'll still be better than the average catcher and the Nats will luck out with one more useful year in that role, or if it's major and the Nats have a huge problem.
But the Nats have done what they have done. This is settled and there isn't any reason to discuss alternatives.
Out of the box suggestion :
There isn't a good one right now given the Nats situation. They'd have to package one of these guys out the door and they aren't going to get back much if anything. But if I gotta come up with something.
You trade Suzuki and Gomes out to whoever wants them for catching prospects. The key here is you aren't looking for good ones necessarily. Trade Suzuki to the Rangers for Randy Florentino (their #25 guy). Gomes to the Angels for whoever qualifies as their best (not even in Top 30). The goal is to get quantity here and try to strike gold. Catching is a spot where bad play is accepted. Grab a Josh Phlegly for a million and Kevin Plawecki for a million and hope you get lucky at the majors while you hope your "flood the minors with crap" plan reveals a gem accidentally flushed down the toilet. You won a series with bad catching. You aren't going to get good catching. Why not try to maybe get lucky for the future.
Aren’t we already to the point where Suzuki can’t play catcher anymore as a defensive position? I mean he’s not capable of throwing out a base stealer. I imagine this year everybody is going to run on him literally nonstop. I’m more worried about him than Gomes actually.
ReplyDeleteA bit off topic, but I think Boz is right about Rizzo. He won Executive of the Year, and now is in his walk year. I know he has made some mistakes over the years, but he's definitely a good GM, and deserves a nice extension.
ReplyDeleteFor catching, I'm just hoping someone in the minors breaks through and gets called up midseason. Read looks like he'll never live up to anything post-steroids, Barrera's also trending towards too-old farm-fodder, but maybe Pineda clicks given his age. .217 avg isn't so hot, but scouts tend to like his bat and think he just needs to work on pitch recognition. But yeah, C doesn't look so good for 2020
ReplyDeleteoof, bleak
ReplyDeleteDoes anyone know if Suzuki's arm is just a lost cause, or if it's something he could maybe improve (or at least maintain) in the weight room? I know it's more about reflexes and tendon flexibility but there's gotta be something he can do.
ReplyDeleteThe catching position produced 29 hrs and 106 rbi's. If every position produced those numbers you have a championship team. Oh look, we have a championship team. I'll take that production every year. Hint...hardly anybody runs anymore (One of the problems of the game). The Nats lost few games because of people running wild on the bases. Gomes hit like most back up catchers. Catching is not close to the Nats biggest problems in 2020 (if they produce the same numbers).
ReplyDeleteDo the Nats dare go into rebuild mode coming off a World Series win? I mean, if they don't re-sign Stras or Rendon this is yet another hole in the lineup. Personally, I think they should just match Rendon's highest offer. If Stras gets too expensive, make a run at Cole. Otherwise, moves like these will come back to bite them.
ReplyDeleteAnon is right - a 744 OPS out of your starting C and 642 OPS out of your backup isn't that bad. It definitely beats the sucking chest wound that they've had for the last several years.
ReplyDelete@ Anon at 11:53AM - we've had this discussion before, I respect the stat you keep repeating, I also think it's highly misleading. Let me count the reasons why:
ReplyDelete1) We had the worst statistical defensive catching unit, which is going to cost a few games given how important the position is
2) Besides 1st base & BP, it was our worst regular unit by WAR
3) If you're going to be that bad on defense, you need to make up for it on offense. As a unit they are 10th in OPS, I'll give you that they were pretty good there, but THAT WAS THE WORST ON THE TEAM. Stop pretending the whole team together would be good if they hit like our catchers
They're not a bad as a 1-2 punch offensive punch, but they're not much better than peak Danny Espinosa either, who at least had defense on his side. Not upgrading here is a bummer especially if we lose the actual offensive engine of this team in Tony and Howie.
To clarify, there is more offense beyond Tony and Howie, but losing them would be a real blow.
ReplyDeleteI really like both Stras and Rendon as players and hope they both come back, but I'm reluctant to say that the team needs them to be successful. Free agents are by definition paid around their market price, and the decision to sign or not sign any free agent can't do that much to our expectations of success assuming a broadly comparable final payroll.
ReplyDeleteBut that assumes a market with enough mostly equivalent free agents, so if you don't sign Bryce, you can go get Corbin and end up with a similar payroll and a similar projected win total.
My big worry is that this year's free agent market is crazily top heavy. If we miss out on Stras and Rendon and Cole, I don't see how we could spend our $75 million in cap room in a way that would make up the expected loss of production.
So while in general I'm OK with Rizzo's realpolitik, I think this offseason is a special case. It sucks to be negotiating from a position of weakness, but we simply cannot strike out on all three of the top free agents. And it would be really really really good to just keep the two we love to root for.
This notion that you just total the HR and RBI by our two catchers and it’s that simple is nuts. Especially today with framing etc (which doesn’t even factor into WAR) defense ends up being more important for catching value than offense (which is of course also important). And there’s a reason our catchers sucked when it comes to value. They were both bad on defense....(in case of suzuki as bad as it gets), and one of them was bad at both defense and offense. Our catching value from the tandem was not good. You can say they were good at handling the starting staff. Ok. I assume they’re pitch handling abilities then vanished when it came to the bullpen though. Because suzuki hit pretty well for a catcher, yes, they weren’t as bad as say Matt weiters. But the idea that that position was adequate is just wrong. I mean....unless you’re pleased with hideous defense and average offense=well below average value and production. It didn’t kill them last year which is fine. But I don’t know if “didn’t kill them” should really be the standard. Though honestly......re-sign Rendon and Stras and I won’t care what you do at Catcher. The problem is I’m becoming pretty worried that we are going to end up signing a washed up MadBum and josh donaldson instead of, say, Grandal if we knew we weren’t going to do what it took to re sign our guys.
ReplyDeleteCatcher statistics are misleading, bit not for the reasons BxJ aays. They are multi-dimensional.
ReplyDeleteFirst, you have the offensive stats, and we agree that for DC, the catcher position is adequate. The assessment is that Suzuki is good here, but on a downward trend while Gomes is poor, though potentially a better performer.
Secondly, you have a whole bag of defensive stats. Framing, passed balls, throwing out runners, etc. We agree that Gomes is decent defensively, Suzuki is a lost cause. Harper isn't satisfied, though and thinks Rizzo should have done better.
What we don't have are stats on game calling and communication between pitcher and catcher. A huge unrecognized part of the sport are the mental games that pitcher and catcher play on each batter. A good game caller is akin to a quarterback in football. Its why the Astros put so much effort into stealing signs (and Suzuki helped Strasberg overcome pitch tipping/sign stealing in the WS). Rizzo chose Suzuki and Anabel as a team --- that also worked out (the Cards were flummoxed in the playoffs against Anabel/Suzuki).
Until we have better stats on this third category, I'm happy to let Rizzo, the pitching coaches, the manager and the pitchers themselves evaluate catcher choices. And I'll give Rizzo the benefit of the doubt. Calling (and controlling) games is so much more important than preventing steals!
I guess Mark Lerner and Scott Boras don't get along. Yet another interview of Mark Lerner yesterday where he cries poor and states he can't sign both Rendon and Strasburg. I don't get it. It's not about Mark Lerner. No one cheers for the Washington Lerners. Please be quiet and just do whatever Mike Rizzo says. They can afford to bring back Redon and Strasburg and still be under the CBT. Plus, when did the Lerner family decide the CBT was such a big deal? A payrolls f $210+ and you're upset about a few million dollars more bc of being over the CBT. Anyway, it is disappointing to spend all last season to hear they couldn't sign Harper bc they needed the money to sign Rendon. Now a year later they can't afford Rendon?? Whey do they have the money to sign Corbin and Scherzer but don't for any of their own players? I don't get it. Finally, please sign Mike Rizzo to an extension for whatever he thinks is fair.
ReplyDeleteYeah, kind of ominous comments from junior Lerner. I think a large part of owners dealing with the CBT is appearances leading up to labor negotiations. Owners, specifically the rich ones like the Lerners, can't just go over the cap (Jay's right, the $$$ taxed are immaterial) without generating issues with the other clubs and hurting ownership's position going into the upcoming strike.
ReplyDelete$80 mil for Rendon and Strasburg would leave ~$20 mil for everybody else. You want to save a little more for the rest of the team? Acting as GM, I let Strasburg go (pref to the AL) and maybe replace him with that left coast lefty. Keep the guy that appears 140 times over the one who only appears 30.
@Jay I think Lerner's comments were a negotiating tactic to put pressure on one or both of them to make up their mind if they want to come back, particularly Strasburg who relocated his family to the area. You really can't trust public comments from agents, owners or GM's this time of year, these guys are all good negotiators and they're going to posture to get the best deal they can. Do they sometimes push too far and wind up with nothing, sure, but it doesn't mean that's their intent.
ReplyDeleteKendrick is back! See? Lerner's aren't cheap!
ReplyDelete2020 is gonna be the Over The Hill Gang.
Howie only got 1/6.25???? That is generous for the Nats. I get that Kendrick is a good candidate for regression, but the bat skills are still there, and he can play 2B, 1B, and fill in at 3B and LF as a stopgap.
ReplyDeleteYay, Howie's back! This is especially big if they can't sign Rendon or Donaldson.
ReplyDeleteBx, your point of view is your point of view. Doesn't make other people's point of view "nuts". That just rude and unnecessary. Offensive production out of the catcher position was more than adequate. Catcher was rarely the reason the Nats won or lost. They did their job. You can poo-poo 29 hrs and 106 rbi's all you want. The name of the game is to score more than the other guy. They contributed more than the share in the line-up.
ReplyDeleteDid anybody catch the clips of Mark Lerner's interview where he basically said goodbye to either Strasburg or Rendon? Boras fired back basically saying BS: you can easily afford both. As much as I don't like Scott Boras, I hate to say it but he's right. I know he's basically just trying to drive the price up for whomever they sign with, and I agree that the Lerners are also trying to set themselves up somehow for the upcoming strike/lockout. But they CAN afford both, and I think based on Boras' comment that they both WANT to come back, but not if they're going to get lowballed/deferred into oblivion. I wonder if the Lerners believe that.
ReplyDelete@Nick I saw it, but it really seemed like a negotiating tactic to me. Lots of people like to pretend that owners are dumb, but they didn't get to be that rich by being stupid. Most of these guys are solid negotiators, so if I read the tea leaves correctly, it seems like a ploy to get one of them to speed up so that the Nats don't get left in the cold the way FA's are signing much quicker this year. You'd hate to see the Nats wait on Rendon and Strasburg only to watch Donaldson and Cole come off the board and them be left with no one.
ReplyDelete@JW, yes exactly, that's my fear. Donaldson will get snapped up, Lerners will stand pat on their "generous" offers full of deferred money that will be defended as savvy economic moves by various anonymous commenters here, and the Nats will suck in 2020 and beyond.
ReplyDelete@Nattydread: Yeah, the subtleties that go into catching are something that are just hard to measure sometimes. By every objective measure, Suzuki was a horrible defensive catcher (to the point that by fWAR, Gomes's late-season surge to adequacy was enough to give him the better season, 0.8 to 0.6), and yet the pitchers don't seem to echo that. I mean, the Cleveland Indians intentionally traded for Sandy León, who was coming off a *negative* fWAR season (and similarly the Red Sox last year decided they could do without his anemic statistical output, then almost immediately brought him back when their pitchers started to melt down). Basically, unless you've got a standout like Realmuto or Grandal, and you don't have Wieters-grade "sucks at everything" crud back there, it's hard to separate catchers.
ReplyDelete@chaos56: Totally agree. The fact that the 30 MLB franchises have tacitly agreed to treat the tax as a soft salary cap and nobody's going to get out of line for more than a year or three gets ignored far too often. The economic impact of the tax penalties are negligible and the reason they are negligible is hat their real value to ownership is the symbolic signposts to business comity. Meanwhile, the reason it's a softcap and not a hardcap is that the MLBPA appreciated that every year some teams would be willing to go over it for short-term benefits (such as, y'know, trying to win baseball games) and figure that it'll be to their aggregate net benefit. Not sure if they're right or if they'd be better off with a floor/hardcap structure.
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