Last night Fernando Tatis signed a long term deal with the Padres for 100 years and a billion dollars.Ok it could have been closer to 14/340. Will he be making more or much less than he could have signing this deal now? It's hard to say. If he's very good for most of those 14 years it'll come out right. If he's great for all 14 it'll be a huge bargain. If he gets injured tomorrow and limps through 8, it'll be a huge mistake. That's the thing with long term deals.
What does this mean for Soto? Well Soto, a few months older, is probably a better hitter than Tatis, and certainly a worse fielder than Fernando who trying to fake it at SS while Soto fakes it in the corner OF. That doesn't come out in the wash. Hitting is more important. BUT I did say probably (and italicized it, you really should have noticed that) and the fact is Soto gave us that clearly better year in 40 games in a pandemic season. How meaningful is that? If Soto is more 140+ OPS+ than 180+ OPS+ that's a big difference between All-Star and having "best hitter ever" conversations for the next decade and a half.
My guess is that he leans more toward the 180+. There's no flukiness here to his patience or his power. All that I see as a question is where those levels end up being. 40 homers and 150 walks or 30 homers and 110? His average is more up in the air. .350 was quite a bump and definitely could be a small sample size fluke. If he's more a .300 guy than .330... well really that's all finishing touches. See we're arguing .300 30 vs .330 40. It's all good news for Nats fans.
For Soto though .300 30 means a Tatis like deal. .330 40 means something more. Next year is going to be huge as Juan tries to prove it over the long haul.
But don't expect something now. The Padres have an ideal situation to sign Tatis long term. They only have one big deal hanging out there with Machado. They have several mid-high deals, yes, but in two seasons that 66 million for Hosmer, Darvish, and Myers becomes 31 for just Darvish and Hosmer thanks to FA and deals that get smaller on the back end. In other words there's 30 million freed up. They have the best pitching prospect in baseball and along with Darvish have Lamet for 3 more years and Paddack for 4 at arbitration prices and lower. That's a cheap likely good rotation. Cronenworth and Grisham are under control for longer than Tatis was. The wrap up is there is a cheap base here to work with so signing Tatis doesn't hem the Padres in.
The Nats have three big deals this year (Max, Corbin, Stras) and two of those continue into the future three more years after that. A big deal for Soto make it really hard for the Nats to make additional moves. And they need to because their next most important player, Trea Turner, comes up for FA in two years and they have no real base of good young players, still hoping for Garcia and Kieboom and some pitcher PLEASE to come through. The wrap up here is that they almost can't do it this year because of the payroll they have and it's going to be tough to do it beyond that AND sign Turner. You can finagle the money but if you do you are saying these four - Stras Corbin Turner and Soto are the guys the Nats are paying in 2023 and 2024 and you have to pray that they all are good.
What does Tatis mean for Soto? Another bar is set. This year Soto will show if he's worth more than that bar. Then the Nats will have to make some decisions
Best case? Garcia and Kieboom both develop. Stras and Corbin pitch great. The Nats can sign Soto, say best wishes to Trea and move forward continuing to challenge for division titles and playoff spots
"Worst" case? Garcia and Kieboom both don't develop. Stras and Corbin aren't great. The Nats have to trade away assets hoping to get a set of good prospects to build around Soto and Trea.
Real worst case? The "worst" case but Stras is hurt and Corbin is mediocre. The Nats have next to nothing to deal other than Trea and they can't convince Soto to stick around if they deal him, forcing a catch-22 where they aren't going to get playoff good again without getting very lucky or spending a lot of money.
I have no analysis to add. Perhaps it is more a question. We have seen other teams like Atlanta and San Diego sign their young, budding superstars to contracts we would love to see Soto or Turner accept, and no doubt fans of these other teams are smug about it. They know that the Nats failing to do the same is a predictable side-effect of the Lreners' good working relationship with Scott Boras. They also scoff at the Lerners' proclivity to offer big contracts with deferred money, sure of themselves that the Nats miss out on some players and will suffer later for this habit.
ReplyDeleteFor now, I am perfectly happy to think, "Yeah, but we won the World Series under those conditions." My question is how long that will be a reasonable response. The Angels have a championship, but it was 19 years ago. The White Sox have one in our lifetime, and it was more than 15 years ago. Flags fly forever, but when does the significance start to fade as you wait for the next one? I'm sure that 1995 seems like forever ago to Braves fans and 1986 forever ago for the Mets.
As long as we're consistently playing meaningful games in September, I feel good about this team. It's not reasonable to think we can win the WS every 6 years or make the playoffs even half the time. Other teams are trying too.
ReplyDeleteI want us to be in the hunt most years, make the playoffs at least once every 3-4, win some playoff series sometimes (2019 buys about a decade of patience from me on that score) and generally try to be competitive. If we can do that and don't win another WS for 20 or 25 years, I'm totally fine with that.
Also, I don't want Soto to take the Acuna deal. That deal, while not as bad as the Albies one, is a travesty. The union shouldn't have approved it.
This Tatis deal seems fair enough and I'd love for Soto to take a slightly richer version of it to account for the fact he's already in Arb 1, has an additional year of early excellence behind him and has a skillset with slightly less variability. (Though I also have to say that the upside for Tatis is higher than Soto because of defense.) I'm thinking around 400/15 for Soto. Maybe he wants to push for more - he will probably exceed that if he goes to free agency - but that would also a very hard number to say no to.
And I am pretty skeptical on the whole deferrals thing mattering much at all. The calculations are very simple and I'd have to believe that coming to an agreement on the discount rate is an order of magnitude easier than pretty much any other point of contention in these negotiations. The Lerners' could always borrow money, anyway, to "defer" the payment of any contract. And players could probably sell future payments as an annuity and collect the real total amount immediately. I mean, this is all a very very solved problem. Which is why it just can't matter much.
My bet is that the higher sticker prices help agents advertise a little and the team finds it a convenient way to manage cash flow without dealing with lenders and the players don't really care. So it's an easy thing to add into a lot of these big deals. The fans latch on to it because they're anchored to comparing deals of equal nominal values and a lot of them don't really understand the time value of money. I may have missed it, but I can't recall a case of a player taking less present day money because the Nats insisted on deferring some of it.
Getting paid in retirement, in a no income tax state, can dramatically lower a tax bill VS getting paid and paying taxes in DC and all around the US. I agree that NPV is too easy to calculate to be a way for Lerners to be cheap, so I think the Lerners are always trying to address MASN cash flow issues by arguing tax benefits of deferrals and higher nominal bragging rights. Players really should see the out years as an annuity. But they don't. Maybe they have irrational fear of inflation, like many people, or they think they have a low life expectancy because they come from dangerous communities.
DeleteGood analysis as usual Harper. I agree the real worst case scenario is to be mired in mediocrity over the next five years as older players only show two week glimpses of yesteryear and the Nats continue to chase a goal which gets further and further away as their tradeable assets grow up and leave the team. Won't be the first time it happened to a championship team. They can extend Soto to one of those mega deals and do a rebuild with him on the team, but I'm not sure he and Boras want that. I love Turner, but if the Nats aren't in the hunt this year I'm not sure how they get back without trading him, as he's their only real tradable asset besides Soto.
ReplyDeleteAnon - the "just be good enough to compete for the playoffs" is a classic Rizzo strategy and it's worked so far. There are maybe 2-3 other teams in the MLB that can say they were competitive every year since 2012 like the Nats can. Issue is even without the Nats trading away their entire farm for present value, like many other teams do during championship runs, they've still done it slowly over the last decade. That plus low draft picks has made their farm system pretty barren. I'm not sure they can get away with being "just good enough" for the next couple of years. I could be wrong - extend Soto, get lucky with Strasburg/Corbin/a young pitcher, and a few hitters, and they could keep it going. I just think a rebuild is likely coming, or should come. I agree the deferments aren't an issue for the reasons you state. Only counterpoint is the Nats want to stay under the luxury threshold and that uses AAV, which is going to be higher on a deferred contract over its equivalent present value counterpart.
Mike K - I have seen different answers on this, so I am definitely not sure, but I don't think that's how the luxury tax is calculated. I *think* they use a NPV adjustment to create the counterfactual contract paid evenly over the lifetime of the contract.
ReplyDeleteHere's one source that corroborates: https://metsmerizedonline.com/2020/07/understanding-deferred-money-contracts.html/
But, like I said, I've definitely seen it described the other way too, so I'm not sure these guys have it right. Has anyone seen something official from MLB or the union?
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