Monday update Nolan Arenando goes to the Cardinals? What does that mean for the Nats? For the NL?
Arenado had a bad year last year but assuming that doesn't hold and it's COVID shenanigans he's a very good bat and a great glove. It probably doesn't give the Cardinals a good offense, but if they can get to average the defense and pitching would make them NL Central favorites. It's always worse to play better teams, but it doesn't directly effect the Nats.
The NL Central is weird. The Pirates obviously are tanking. The Cubs had the making of a dynasty after 2016 and tried to make it happen but it didn't. They made the playoffs 3 of the next 4 years, but caught bad luck in 2019, and got edged out of a division in 2018. Add a little playoff failure and you get a solid but unmemorable run after that magic moment. Now it seems like they want to pack it in but also realize that the division is so weak they really should put up some minimal effort. The Brewers built up to a couple of magic seasons but really never went all in to do it and it seems like they have no intention of ever actually really trying beyond that moment. They've made almost no moves this offseason. The Reds are taking the Brewers plan a step further - building up a decent team but not even half-trying to get a couple contending seasons. It's not happening with just what they had on hand so now they are rebuilding yet again.
What does this all mean for the Nats? One of these teams is going tank. Maybe two teams will. Because these teams are decent and competitive in recent history that's a lot of talent that could be available as the playoff push starts. The Nats don't have a lot to offer. They might honestly have the worst minor league system in baseball and were almost shut out of every Top 100 list until Cavalli snuck in at 99 on one. But if there is a glut of teams selling and talent available? Maybe even the Nats can get something done.
The other thing this means is that The WC is probably coming down to an NL East team (or two - if expanded) and the Dodgers/Padres not division winner.* That is pretty good odds for the Nats.
*Probably - you can see a way one NL Central team surprises and the other tanks and that gets them a lot of wins.
Why on earth weren't we in on Arenado? He is EXACTLY what we need.
ReplyDelete@Egonadon
ReplyDeleteWhat were the Nats gonna offer? As Harper said, there's ZERO farm left. The only way to nab Arenado is to take on most of his contract, but then that ties the Nats up and prevents them from extending Turner or Soto. I would've loved Arenado, but a trade wasn't viable.
Harper, how do you feel about the MLB proposal? I both love and hate the idea of an expanded playoff. Hate because I feel it diminishes the value of performing well during the season, but love because maybe it will incentivize teams not to tank (looking at you Central divisions). And if they add the DH, that opens up the possibility for Stevenson to get more reps and improves the OF defense
I guess the flip side to the extended playoffs proposal is it may encourage teams not to spend money in an attempt to improve. Why try to win 90 games when 85 might be enough to reach the playoffs?
ReplyDeleteEGON - everything CP said. They could have gotten in the mix - but looking at the return it would have taken offering up all that they have in their system and/or more $, it just doesn't make sense. This is the realist talking. The Harper talking says - just spend more money! But the realist wins out in terms of, you know, the real world.
ReplyDeleteCP - Well I don't like expanded playoffs or the universal DH (but both are coming) so I don't like it. Also these are the big items that the teams want, by agreeing to it now it loses leverage power for the players going into the bargaining for the next CBA where they hope to pit expanded playoffs against some sort of spending floor, revenue share, or other plan to keep money flowing. So it was a poison pill
Chas - so to be specific
I hate the universal DH because I grew up with one DH one not. I'd like it to be more complex but it's not. I think no DH is more interesting because it forces strategy but I can see the dislike of the basically wasted at bats. So I'm not going to be super angry when it happens, only mildly so.
I HATE the expanded playoffs for the reasons Chas says. Whatever the target to get into the playoffs is - that's the targets teams will shoot for. Expanded playoffs, lower bar, worse planned teams.
I don't know. I grew watching 98% DH ball (Orioles fan in the 80s and 90s) and then didn't follow baseball for about a decade. And since the Nats came to DC I've watched 90% no-DH baseball. No-DH baseball is definitely more interesting.
ReplyDeleteAnd I even think it comes down to a single strategic decision for me: if/when to pinch hit for the starting pitcher. There's just so much that goes into that, and great to think through all the various considerations. In DH ball, the starting pitcher simply pitches until they pitch badly or until they finish their assignment (which will vary based on the starter's age and health and the bullpen quality and availability but is pretty much decided before the game. Usually 6 or 7 IP. 8 for aces).
There are other strategic choices that come up more in no-DH ball as well, but that's the big one. And I'll be so sad when it goes away.
I think the folks who like the DH are comparing between discrete PAs. And in those terms, it makes sense: would you rather watch a pitcher hit or a DH? Almost certainly the DH. But unless fans are mostly watching highlights or tracking fantasy, baseball isn't consumed that way. In the full context of the game, it's so so much richer w/o the DH.
But I agree that it's pretty much inevitable at this point.
Wait maybe I'm missing something? Am I the only one who didn't think the return for Arenado was all that impressive? STL gave up a Joe Ross/Tanner Rainey hybrid, their 14th, 26th, and 28th ranked prospect, and a PTBNL. What part of that could the Nats not have forked over?
ReplyDeleteBy comparison, it looks like either Fedde/Ross/Rainey + Kieboom + Yasel Antuna + Steven Fuentes + Sterling Sharp could have gotten that deal done. Trash? Fine, then put Cavalli in for one of the pitchers. Take a serious look at what COL got in return. What do you honestly see? Was it the in-depth scouting reports that paint a romantic picture of incredible upside that STL had in Montero, Gil, Locey, and Sommers? I don't see much that we couldn't match there.
Anti-DHer's come across as whiners as baseball moves into a new era. However, when pitchers are actual batters, they do play into overall game strategy. Wainwright, Greinke and Bumgarner --- and Scherzer for that manner --- are all good enough batters to be considered for extra-inning pinch hit appearances. And its so cool when they impact the game with their bat.
ReplyDelete@Ole PBN
ReplyDeleteThe Cards 14th, 26th, and 28th prospects are all equivalent to Nats Top 10 prospects