Carrasco down - the importance of depth

Carlos Carrasco, the Mets presumed #2, tore his hammy and is probably out - let's say the first two months*. The Mets depth chart shifts and becomes

deGrom - Stroman - Walker - Lucchesi/Peterson/Yamamato

If Walker is healthy - and that's a big if - that 1-2-3 are fine but usually pitching injuries matter because of what you are forcing in at the end of the rotation, not how the top shifts. 

What should the Mets expect from the likes of that 4/5 bunch? (since these are projections ERA is fine) 

Lucchesi - 4.10-4.30

Peterson - 4.10-4.50

Yamamato - 5.00-5.40

Well there are two guys who would be perfectly ok at the back of the rotation and a third who isn't great but if you need them to throw 5 starts... you'll survive. The Mets acutally have Syndergaard coming back as well but not until later in the year. They had a starting depth of 1 and they have used that up. However even a starting depth of 1 is a lot for major league rotations.  Most teams don't go 6 deep, or even 5.  Case in point, YOUR Washington Nationals.

What do the Nats have?

Ross - 4.90-5.10

Fedde - 4.50-5.10

Voth - 4.90-5.00

Of course these are just projections but the Nats in a sense have 3 guys who fit inbetween "perfectly ok" and "we'll survive" The good news is that it's three guys for one spot. The bad news is I'd consider them having a starting depth of 0. It's fair to set these three out for one spot and hope you'll find something in the 4.50 or below range. But any injury and you'll either have two of these guys in the rotation or need one of two to hit. The latter would be a tough but possible ask, the former would be very unlikely. 

This wouldn't be too bad but Max is working back from injury AND Stras is working back from injury and is a little hurt now AND Lester had a surgery and has just started to throw AND two of these guys are well over 30. The set-up demands the Nats draw that inside straight so to speak.

Depth matters and the Mets situation shows that. The Nats don't have a likely decent fill-in for that last spot.  What do I think of the other NL East teams? I'd probably put the Braves depth at a shaky 1 - lots of options means there's almost certain a couple guys that could fill in but finding them might be hard. The Phillies I'd put at a -1, at least until Septemeber call-ups.  They have a handful of bad options and long risks for 4/5.  We'll probably know soon though what Moore really is so maybe they are a 0, but I doubt it. 

The Mets could handle a big injury best. They just had it. Now they have to hold on 2 months. Hell - if they hold on 4 months they might be a depth 2!  The Braves might be able to handle it. The Phillies would likely see their season screwed. The Nats can't handle it either but not to those levels. 

Stay Healthy!

*general timelines would put him back early-Mid May, but let's be cautious.