Thursday follow-up - Marlins and the pens

 Tuesday was not quite complete and my loyal readers were clamoring CLAMORING for more.  The big questions were (1) Where would the Marlins fit in? (2) What about closers/pen? So let's answer those

(1) Where would the Marlins fit in? 

The Marlins rotation is likely this

Sandy Alcantara, Sixto Sanchez, Pablo Lopez, Elieser Hernandez, Trevor Rogers/Edward Cabrera/etc.

Sandy would be 5th out of 5.  He's not too off of Fried honestly but unlike Fried I can't see him putting together a season that might end up the best out of all #1s.  It's just not there

Sixto would be 4th. He's a legit prospect with good stuff but you got three of the best guys in the number 2 spot in baseball ahead of you.  I would put him ahead of Morton because of Morton's age and 2020 performance, even though I still like Morton as a 2. Sixto is good. 

Pablo would be 5th. Again he's not bad, 2020 was very good but he's a step behind the solid Zach Eflin and a big injury risk. 

Hernandez would be 4th.  He's might be ok I don't like the Matt Moore grab at anything but a 5. There's a big step down here from the Anderson/Walker/Lester group. 

Rogers/Cabrera/etc. would be 4th.  I like them better than the Phillies group (again assuming they build Howard up most of the year as he is actually probably good) and not as good as the Nats group, but ultimately they are all the same sort of bottom of the Top 100 prospects set. 

The Marlins rotation might end up being middle of the road but you could argue the Top 5 in all of baseball are all NL (the NL East trio and the Dodgers and Padres - though I'd put the Yankees somewhere in the mix) and the Phillies are probably 10ish. So being 7th in the NL would actually be really good. There's a lot of youth here so big steps forward taken last year could be real and there could be more to come. But variability, and the competitions keeps them the 5th best rotation in the NL East in my opinion. (You see how one Top 3 injury for the Phillies might put them 5th.  Should have signed Jake!)

(2) Closer Rankings

Edwin Diaz

Brad Hand

Will Smith

Archie Bradley

Anthony Bass / Yimi Garcia

I have a soft spot for Diaz. I believe 2019 was just a fluke and his pitching in 2018 and 2020 - which were arguably the best closing jobs done in the majors - is more indicative of his talent. Just an incredible strikeout guy, special talent really. A step behind him, and still probably Top 5ish in baseball is Hand. who has been consistently very good for half a decade. A step behind him and more just outside the Top 10 is Will Smith. He's been as good as Hand and for longer BUT he missed all of 2017 with an injury and pitched terribly last year. I like to dismiss 2020 as much as possible but Smith was too bad to not take into account. Bradley is a step behind him. A perfectly adequate closer and maybe the best in the group at keeping the ball in the park. Bass and Garcia are good arms but unproven. 

(3) Pen rankings 

Martin/Minter/Dayton/Joseph/Webb

Lugo/May/Familia/Loup/Betances

Hudson/Rainey/Harris/Guerra/Finnegan

Neris/Alvarado/Kintzler/Watson/Coonrod/Romero

Floro/Bleier/Curtiss/Hoyt/Garrett/Castano

The Braves pen has one vet arm to rely on in Martin and several live young arms. Pens are variable but there isn't a bad arm to point to and there's potential. The Mets have a similar set up but with no youth.  They could have the best pen IF Betances is as good as he could be, but that's a big IF and one you want to see first. The Nats pen is perfectly acceptable. Hudson is probably not that good and Harris was a surprising disappointment in 2020 but Rainey and or Finnegan might step into their roles. It's likely to have two good arms and some issues with the final few, you know, a bullpen. The Phillies re-worked their whole pen but guys like Alvarado, Watson, and Coonrod are decent arms to have, not pen builders. A lot will fall on Neris returning to 2019 form and Kintzler. It's not a bad pen, middle of the pack. Phillies fans will take that but again - looking at the competition they fall back in the East. Marlins are a bunch of arms that have good and bad years recently that you can't rely on. It's not the worst pen I've seen but in a reverse of the Braves there isn't a good arm to point to.