Are the Nats are actually the luckiest NL East team?

I've been constantly hearing chatter this year about how the Nats, despite having nothing go right for them, are still in competition for the NL East crown. The implication being that when things balance out for the Nats and the other teams in the league the Nats will start winning more and maybe take the division.  But is that true?  Is it true the Nats haven't had things go their way?  Is it true that the other teams have? 

Let's start off by saying usually you can just look at last year and say something but 2020 is obviously a flawed year for comparison. So most of these looks will be based on the idea that 2019 and 2020 form a kind of bracket on expected performance and anything kind of in the center of this bracket is normal.  Also there's always history so if someone hits like 110 every year up to 2019 hits 150 in 2019 but 110 in 2020 and is hitting 110 this year I wouldn't say that was "bad" just because it was the bottom of the bracket so to speak.  Anyway let's look at the Nats. 

Inarguably they have had two big issues. Juan Soto has been hurt, has missed about 10 games and has underperformed. Yes, even if he's got a 129 OPS+ that's underperforming and counts. It hasn't been a HUGE problem - as he was hitting sort of before and is sort of back to normal now - but it's a thing gone wrong.  In the HUGE problem category is Strasburg's injury missing about a month of this short season and pitching badly before coming out. 

Patrick Corbin's sub-rotational performance is also a negative. Josh Bell while clawing his way back to "not the worst thing ever" still is at the bottom of his bracket which is underperforming for him historically and in a sense a bad break. Tanner Rainey was surprisingly TERRIBLE when even bad might have been disappointing but not a surprise.

What's been good? Well Josh Harrison has hit better than he ever has. Trea Turner and Kyle Schwarber (yes Kyle Schwarber, look it up) are both hitting at the top end of those brackets with no indication historically that that was a given. Zimm is also hitting better than he has in years. Yadiel Hernandez has been a better bat than expected. Daniel Hudson has gotten some ERA luck along with pitching better than he ever has. 

All in all a mixed bag. Slightly unfavorable I'd say, but a recent batting surge against some bad pitching has evened out a lot of batting issues from earlier in the year. Not that this is a good offensive team mind you - but it's doing mostly what it was constructed to do. 

How does this compare with the rest of the NL East? 

Mets - their two big FAs (McCann and Lindor) are vastly underperforming and Dom Smith is surprisingly bad. The rest of their batters are literally hurt, with 5 starters currently on the IL. Also the best pitcher in baseball deGrom is injured. They did have some luck on the mound. Walker was surprisingly good... now injured. And a couple bullpen arms (May, Familia, Castro) are doing better than expected. Still those line-up issues are devastating

Phillies - Their star catcher and another starter are both out on the IL and their biggest hitter, Bryce, has been up and down after taking a pitch to the wrist and face. Their back-up catcher has hit so terribly it has to be mentioned with their starter out. They've had issues keeping their only good CF healthy. Their gamble on Matt Moore as a 5th starter not only didn't pan out it failed miserably in less than a month. Several bullpen arms are hurt and they have gotten the year Kintzler falls apart.  On the positive side Segura bounced back very nicely and Brad Miller has hit like, dare I say, a superstar. Wheeler has also developed into a top of the rotation guy. 

Braves - their starting catcher is gone for the year and their big FA signing Ozuna has been awful. Freeman has underperformed in a way he hasn't ever (though like Soto the bar is high so he's not bad just bad for him). it's looking more and more likely Mike Soroka - looking to be a #3+ in the rotation, won't pitch at all this year instead of being back in May. Charlie Morton and Max Fried are both having unexpected down starts. On the positive side... uh Austin Riley has really blossomed. Oh and Pablo Sandoval has been great off the bench, even better than could be expected. 

We'll leave the Marlins out for another month. But what I see is a Nats team luckier than the Braves, luckier than the Mets, and about as lucky as the Phillies. By strength of schedule the Phillies have played a harder schedule (the Braves maybe a touch easier).  The Nats have a neutral expected record based on their runs scored/allowed (Mets +2, Phillies +1, Braves and Marlins -2) So despite, DESPITE, having no worse luck and having no harder schedule, and in fact probably having the easiest combination of the two, the Nats are still in 5th place trailing all these teams.

Is it lucky to have less bad luck than other teams? Maybe in 2021 it is. Luck is transient and fickle and it can turn around for the Nats and not the others. The Mets and Braves have harder schedules coming up by a little so that's another thing in the Nats favor. There's a path here. Just don't confuse where they are now as a product of bad luck.  I'd argue it's a product of good luck they are where they are. They need to take advantage of it. 

And to start they need to beat the Reds. As I said yesterday the Reds are a mashing team - second in runs scored - who can't pitch - last in runs allowed. Jesse Winkler and Nick Castellanos make an extremely formidable 1-2 with 25 homers between them already and Tucker Barnhardt and Tyler Naquin complement them with some decent hits. The line-up was even tougher but Votto is out with a broken thumb and Mike Moustakas will miss this series. Their replacements have not been good. A lot going forward is going to depend on if Eugenio Suarez, up to 2019 a pretty good bat, finds his groove again. He's been striking out SOOOOO much, at times closing in on 40%. He hasn't gotten any better in the past week (in fact he's been worse) and Barnhardt and Naquin have been slumping so it's been a tough week offensively. Still I'd expect runs from this group. Castellanos in the past week is hitting .524 and even if they don't hit Suarez and Naquin swing big all the time.

The Reds starters aren't the problem, but they aren't a solution. The Nats won't get no-hitter man Wade Miley, who's hurt. They'll also miss Luis Castillo, the expected ace who's been the worst starter this year. The problem has been the bullpen. It has no shutdown arms and only 3 useful ones, the closer Tejay Antone is good, maybe very good. Hard to hit, hard to homer, makes you miss.  Ryan Hendrix and Sean Doolittle are solid but with an issue that keeps them from being better (wild and a little bit too hittable, respectively). Get past the starters early, or really at all before the 8th in a couple games in a row, and this is the softest of soft underbellies.

Probables

Tyler Mahle vs Scherzer - Max wasn't his best last time out but you don't really worry about Max.  I do think ScHeRzer might make an appearance here given the amount of homers the Reds hit, but it's pretty likely to be solo shots given the middling patience and half a line-up they currently have. Mahle, just an all around 4th starter type with some decent stuff, had been pretty ok before laying an egg last time out. Let's hope it's a trend.

Jeff Hoffman vs Ross - With Fedde out Ross gets another shot despite a weak outing last time against the Cubs. I'm not enthused. Hoffman had been a bad starter with the Rockies, but taking him out of Coors has helped limit his hits and homers given up turning him from an AAAA guy to a 5th starter. He had a good outing last time out and has yet to either put it all together for a game or have it all fall apart.

Sonny Gray vs Strasburg - Strasburg one-hit Baltimore through 5 but he did walk four and the Orioles are garbage. Let's see him against a better line-up which this is even in its slightly injured state. Gray started out 2021 pretty strong with one stinker keeping the ERA high so no one noticed. But since he has been more mediocre. On the top of his game he'll still walk a couple but will control the game with few hits and a lot of Ks.

On the train back to contention this is a series the Nats need to win, no question about it. And with Max and Stras pitching against a team 4 games under .500 AND at home, you'd almost want to call for the sweep. But Stras is still an unknown and that makes it harder to ask for that. Still consider this a strong 2-1 series win for the Nats needed where a 1-2 is very much a disappointment.