Monday Quickie - turned?

Quick one today - 

The Nats missed Bumgarner (the D-backs wanted to line him up with a division opponent) and so had an extra advantage to win the series. And win the series they did although they lost a game you might expect them to win* the D-backs, a team with a bad pen, going with a bullpen game. Ross was bad, Fedde was good, Strasburg is ready putting that whole thing in question again. Once more around the mound.

Finally a no rest time so the Nats are back on the field tonight. They'll go up against the confounding Cubs, a team coming to the end of a few years where they should have been dominant, but some FA misses and some lack of commitment, led them to be also rans. This year they have an ok offense and a decent pen but are struggling with rotation issues. 

Like a lot of teams this year the Cubs have big holes and an unbalanced line-up. Bryant, Rizzo, Contreras, Baez are all hitting but fill-in guys like Bote & Sogard are not along with Happ having a bad year (though he might be heating up) and Heyward returning to mediocre ways after a couple ok years. They are patient and active on the basepaths so it's a fun team to watch hit.  Unlike almost every other team they have no real pen issues - going 4 deep in arms they like and almost the full pen of usable arms. If they can get a lead they have a good chance of holding it. 

The starters? They've been a mix of bad and mediocre but the Nats miss one of the worst. Hendricks, who is just having a terrible year (but was good last game). A lot of these guys pitch a lot better at home, where the Cubs are 13-8 as opposed to the road, where they are 6-12.

Jon Lester vs Adbert Alzolay - Lester has looked like the Nats would want him to so far, but this is that "return to home" game which is always a Wild Card.  Alzolay is probably the Cubs best pitcher but that only means he's been consistent in his 3/4 type performance. A former low-Top 100 prospect, he's kind of what the Nats are looking for with Ross/Fedde. Consistently giving the team a chance to win (they don't score for him though). Good control, good K stuff, hard to hit. If he gets past his homer issues (doesn't everyone have them this year?) he has potential to be a 2.

Corbin vs Zach Davies - Corbin was very good in his last game although it was that weird get-away game where everyone looked like they gave up after the first and the ump started calling everything a strike. Give me this game against a good line-up in a good hitting park with no caveats and I'll completely buy he's back. Davies has mediocre stats but it's a terrible April and a pretty good May so think of him as a middle of the rotation guy. He keeps the ball in the park but is wild and hittable otherwise.

Scherzer vs Arrieta - two vets go at it but while Max is still at the top of his game, Jake is a middle of the rotation filler. He is also very consistent 3/4 (one bad game with no good ones is why his stats look a little worse than that).  You know it's not a bad rotation really but they have no ace or guy who can go out there and WIN it and sometimes you need that. The Nats, for example, have Max. 

Ross vs Williams - This could be a blood bath. Ross has mostly not pitched well this year and is on the verge of losing his rotation spot to Fedde once someone needs to be kicked out. Williams has been incredibly bad on the road this year but decent in Chicago. Still he hasn't gone longer than 5 since his first start, and hasn't gone longer than 4 in May.  I'd still give the edge here to the Nats

 

A four game set on the road is a 2-2 expectation no matter how you cut it.  You have to have a pretty big swing in talent to go for something different and even with hoping the Nats play like a 90+ win team and the Cubs being a .500 win team that difference is just not there.  2-2 it is. 

*Ok yes. The game you'd expect them to win is the Scherzer game.