Probables and The Braves

Have we stopped talking about the Nats early season losses to the Braves as being "ok because they might be one of the best teams in the NL" Because if not - look around. They aren't good. The Nats could really bury the Braves with a sweep here, where as with a Braves sweep the Nats would fall to a game behind the Braves, so this series is more important to them than the Nats. In general the Braves have been slipping. They've lost their last 4 and have been beaten badly, by 5 runs or more, 5 times in their last 9 games. Let's take a closer look

Line-up wise the big problem is Ozuna has been terrible. He's sporting a .204 / .289 / .306 split (that's pathetic power) but instead of pushing him down the line-up Snitker moved him up to the 3 hole and kept him there. Similarly Swanson (.202 / . 272 / .317) hasn't been punished for his lack of production, holding steady to the 6 spot. That means the Braves have two big holes in the line-up in the first six outs. Ozuna hasn't been AS bad recently - swinging at everything and hitting two homers - but still it's a bad position for a team that needs a bunch of runs because of various pitching issues. On the flip side Albies is back and hot and Austin Riley might have found his groove. Acuna is ok and Freeman is struggling but you bet on Freddie in a way you don't the other guys. D'Arnaud is now out for the year and backup Alex Jackson is hurt putting Willam "Don't call me William" Contreras behind the plate. He's a minor league hitter who shouldn't hit. Rounding things out is Christian Pache, back after a brief break.  He should hit eventually in the majors but no telling if he'll hit now. Properly set up it's a lineup that can score but Snitker will probably stick to his guns and make it weaker than it needs to be.  On the bench is Big Panda and he can still hit, but he can't play anywhere but maybe first and you aren't taking Freddie out. 

Pen wise it's not great. They do have a lot of arms and the back of the pen - Smith, Minter, now Tomlin, have done better than their ERAs might suggest. But no one else has stepped up and distinguished themselves. Luke Jackson has the best ERA but is a wild mess. Guys like Matzek and Dayton have been mediocre after some promising results in previous years. I still think it sorts out into something pretty good but sorting out takes time and the Braves don't have an unlimited supply of that.

But the real problem isn't a middling middle of the pen leading into a good but not great back. It's the back end of the rotation. Morton has been getting bad results, Smyly failed in the 5th spot and Bryse Wilson in to help cover spots, even more so with Fried hurt and Soroka's return pushed back, has been a disaster. A two man rotation is not a rotation, but Fried is back now and they should be able to right the ship - at least in the sense of play .500+ ball again. 

PROBABLES

Huascar Ynoa vs Joe Ross - Ross bounced back from the bad outing in STL to beat the Mets in DC. He's been great at home so far, but honestly hasn't pitched great.  If you want to be concerned the K-rate, BABIP, and LOB% all suggest he's mediocre and getting lucky. The hard hit rate and GB numbers agree. All in all though he's probably as good as his ERA, but in a more stable 4 runs 6.1 innings way. Ynoa has been pretty good. Great control and swing and miss stuff. He can be a bit homer prone though. 

Max  Fried vs Erick Fedde - Fried looked pretty much like his old self in G1 then got terrible for his 2nd and 3rd games, and presumably was hurt as he'd go out after that. This will be his first game back so it's hard to say what the Nats will see but he's a guy who gets soft contact on the ground when he's on. You might remember that I kind of actually like what I'm seeing from Fedde? He can be more consistent and will probably give up some more bombs but he's missing more bats and everything else points to a 4.00 type guy which you'd take in a second. 

(These two games are gonna shape my Ross/Fedde thoughts going forward as I'm still a Ross over Fedde believer)

? vs Lester - Lester had a warm-up game against the Marlins AAA lineup and looked well enough. Let's see what he does against a team putting out more than one above average bat in eight. Either Bryse Wilson or Drew Smyly or someone completely different could be up. My guess will be Smyly because the only passable start either of these two put up was Smyly against the Nats on the 6th when he went 4 and struck out 8. Thats almost half his K's for the season. 

Win the series. That's the goal. Keep moving forward and keep the Braves down.