I'm on vacation but guess what? I WAS RIGHT AGAIN (well more like the Nats hit the target exactly I set talking about moving forward back into relevance but I WAS RIGHT AGAIN sounds better)
Hold ground in next 6 (27-35)Sweep the Pirates at home (30-35)Beat the Mets at home (33-36)Beat the NL East rivals (PHI 2, MIA 4) away (37-38)- Survive a brutal pre ASG run (home for NYM(1), TB (2), LA (4) @SD (4) @SF (3)) (43-46)
- Win a homestand vs SD/MIA (47-48)
- Sweep the Orioles away (50-48)
The goal I have for the next 14 is 6-8 meaning, yes, they will lose ground but this could be a very bad stretch. If you want to scope out the likely "about .500" Nats record in this run you'd get... carry the one... Is Mars is aligned with Venus? Oh that's not good... (throws chicken bones on ground)... 4-10. 4-10 is a completely normal run here for a .500 ish team. It looks bad but this is probably the hardest stretch for this team going forward. They'd go 4-10 be 41-48 then start slowly getting back to .500 probably going from 4 under to 2 over in the course of a couple weeks in September.
BUT you don't want a .500 ish Nats team. You want something better. If they are better they need to do better and that means 6-8.
8-6, why not. I have no confidence in this team but stranger things have happened.
ReplyDeleteMy biggest takeaway from the last couple weeks is that the folks who want this team to tank are lunatics.
ReplyDeleteThis is fun! Trying to win baseball games, and sometimes winning them is really fun.
These Nats are not a great team. Even now, they are likely to miss the playoffs. And if they make the playoffs they will likely be relatively significant underdogs in every series they play. I concede that it's possible that the team would be more likely to win more World Series over the next 15 years if they tear it down and start a rebuild.
But I don't care! And if you're watching this sustained run of competent baseball and wishing we could trade places with Arizona or Baltimore and really have a good shot at a draft pick that has a 40% chance instead of a 10% chance of being a solid contributor in 6 years, then I just don't understand how your mind works.
The whole point of this is to have fun.
Exactly, Harper. A Nats team that is actually a .500 team is a team that's not going anywhere, either in catching the Mets or in the playoffs if it somehow slipped in. We want the Nats to be a like 2019's team, which had a slow start but after that showed their true talent level was every bit as good as the top teams in the league. And that means being able to play .500-ish ball against competition the likes of SD, LA, and SF. We want the sportswriters from our rivals to see us come out of this stretch and be writing about how their teams couldn't shake the Nats despite the schedule.
ReplyDeleteWouldn't hurt if someone out of the Corbin/Ross/Espino batch can step up and give Max some reliable backup (especially with Fedde now on the IL); if they continue to be the Coin Flip Gang it's not going to be pretty (though in fairness, at least Corbin/Ross/Fedde/Lester/Espino are now all legitimate coin flips instead of reliably bad; better to have a rotation full of #4 starters than one full of #6 starters).
@Anonymous:
ReplyDeleteDarned straight. I've been an Expos/Nats fan since 1979 and the utter awfulness of the late-90s Expos and late 00s Nats were the least fun I've had as a fan. I realize that sometimes you have to fish or cut bait and be willing to rebuild the farm system, but a full tank job is just as likely to turn your team into the Tigers or Orioles as it is the Astros or Cubs.
Let's how much fun the Nats will be after 4 consecutive years of 490-ish to 500-ish baseball.
ReplyDeleteYes -- in the world where you fall into a coma every April and wake up in October, having a team that's projected to be around .500 and then fulfills those projections is hardly any fun at all.
ReplyDeleteThat's not how I choose to follow the sport though. Here I am, watching a likely true-talent 500ish team playing 500ish ball and I'm having a blast.
I don't argue with the fact that we're killing our draft pick, though. That's real and is probably 1 WAR per year in expectation loss from 2026-2031. Nothing in life is free. I'd rather have to find that WAR somewhere else in 8 years and you'd rather be watching a team setting records for futility right now.
And I even get that yours might be the "correct strategy" for a very particularly defined utility function. I just don't understand how a human being can actually have that utility function.
Last place teams get good draft picks. For the Nats, that period ended after Harper, SS and Rendon.
ReplyDeleteOnce teams are good, they have to build with different tools. Development of farm teams from the draft, trades, the international draft and free agents. Rizzo has been pretty good at the latter 3. Turner is from a trade, Soto is from international drafts, Max is a great free agent snatch. It seems strange that Rizzo -- the "scouts GM" -- has sucked so badly at drafting talent, but that's why the cupboard is bare.
Its not time to tear things down. Seasons are built on streaks --- and this team could yet provide a couple more streaks. If they get hot in October, and Strass is back, I wouldn't count them out completely. Schwarber has shown that he can be another Howie.
@Nattydread exactly. We tend to talk about the Nats like they exist in a vacuum, but the fact is that they exist in a division made up of teams who are all FULL of holes. The Braves have no pitching. The Marlins are young. New York seemed to be punching above their weight and are coming back down to earth. Philly is pretty much the same team they were last year.
ReplyDeleteOne injury or even just a bad streak could spell doom for any team, but especially in this division. On the other hand, all it would take for the Nats to look like serious contenders is Soto getting back to his version of normal. It's all up in the air.
I've been one of the teardown folks, but glad the team is looking a (lot) better.
ReplyDeleteI enjoy good baseball as much as the next person. I don't want to sell everything including the floorboards and do a deep painful many year rebuild. That would suck.
But I do think there's good logic in accepting when it isn't you year and doing some responsible selling. A few weeks ago that looked like this year -- now, maybe it doesn't.
My hopes for this stretch:
ReplyDeleteMets - W
TB - 1-1 (though with Ross/Lester lined up that could be 0-2)
LA - 2-2 (need to win the first 2 since Kershaw/Bauer are lined up in the latter 2)
SD - 2-2
SF - 1-2
This puts them at .500 through this stretch. Realistically, though, I don't see them winning more than 1 against LA and 1 against SD. That puts them at 5-9 which is slightly better than Harper's 4-10 prediction for a true .500 team...man this is a rough stretch
I don't see anyone suggesting that the Nats tank. In fact, I'm not convinced it works that often. Houston is the sterling example of a successful tanking. Baltimore, Pittsburgh and Detroit not so much.
ReplyDeleteYet somehow, despite a bad year or two, the Dodgers, Yankees and Red Sox, maybe the Cardinals, always seem in contention.
.500-ish teams can be exciting when they're on the way up (see the current Blue Jays). A .500-ish team on the way down--like the Nats--loses its charm pretty quickly.
My father always said of the '50s Senators that he'd be happy to have a .500 team, as then you wouldn't know who would win when you went to the ballpark. Makes sense to me.
ReplyDeleteMany tanking teams stay bad for years as their owners/managers/GMs just aren't very good. Outside of baseball, I would hate to be a 76ers fan, as tanking went on for years (ruins the rooting) and we see this year that they still aren't in the NBA finals. Better to be one of the teams that reload. Do those teams just have smart execs?
Baseball is fun when your team is competitive. They probably won't win, but it feels like there's a possibility if things break your way. It's miserable when your team sucks, you expect them to suck, and they continue to do so.
ReplyDeleteJune has been fun baseball. Maybe it won't be enough, but it's a great change from April/May, where all we got was miserable baseball. I'll take it.
You're all nuts. 0.400 teams are only known at the end of the season. There's a lot of variation around true skill. As a fan I just want a team that has a solid chance each night. Sure, the standings are fun, but being a .582 or a .500 team can't be discerned night to night. What I love are some good streaks. A few 8 out of 10 wins and I suddenly think my team is the best in there world. Also, tanking is really just for poor teams which our Lerners haven't let us be since they saved the team.
ReplyDeleteObviously, this is fun. And it's no worse than winning 95 games and choking in the NLDS.
ReplyDeleteA reason not to tank is that the Nats have a pretty high pick this year. But SCOUTING SCOUTING SCOUTING. With the bunches of unaffiliated teams out there, there are LOTS of guys available, and some of them are worth picking up. Scouts are a LOT cheaper than Josh Bell.
Beat the Mets? Check
ReplyDeleteAt what point do we start recognizing Paolo Espino as a real-deal MLB pitcher?
ReplyDelete"I'm not in your original bullpen plans? No problem, I can step up and contribute when injuries inevitably happen.
Oh, need a spot starter? How about I give you five scoreless innings against the Pirates and earn my first big league win 15 years after getting drafted?
Oh, Brad Hand needs to rest? How about I get inserted into the ninth inning of a 13-12 game, and earn a save in the bandbox that is Citizens Bank Park?
Oh, Fedde got hurt? How about another 5 scoreless against the division-leading Mets with no walks and no XBH?
Last night's win was enormous. Much bigger than just a win in my view. While we are dealing with this really tough stretch the Mets have @Braves, @Yankees and Brewers at home before a 4 game set at home with the Pirates (competitive yikes on that one).
ReplyDeleteSo let's say they are likely lose the Braves and Yankees series' away and the Brewers series at home and then win 3/4 from Pittsburgh. That's 6-7 pre ASG. 6-7 is probably the absolute best we could hope for in our last 13 and 5-8 might be a little more likely and in line with Harper's prediction.
Right now we're 4 back in the loss column. So holding ground or slipping one game isn't bad at all. But if we had lost last night? We'd be starting 5 back in the loss column with the chance to slip to 6 or maybe even 7 back pre ASG. What a difference! Thanks Paolo, Kyle and Zimm.
I love me some Paolo Espino. Throws tons of strikes and mixes speeds and location really well. Super happy for him and his accomplishments this year. However, he's playing way over his head right now. If he had Qualified IP, he'd rank in the top 10 in Barrel%, Hard-Hit%, and average Exit Velocity. His BABIP is .221. That save against the Phillies was the perfect example of his effectiveness: four batted balls with EV > 90mph, three of which were turned into quick outs.
ReplyDeleteHaving said that he's absolutely earned a spot in the rotation at least while Fedde is out.
@ocw Definitely agree that he’s playing above his ability. He has cut way down on the walks while maintaining the occasional K, but with a steady FB% and increasing hard hit % you have to assume he’ll start giving up more bombs. That being said, he’s been a more than acceptable spot starter.
ReplyDeleteAt what point do we become buyers for SP? Stras isn’t coming back any time soon, Corbin/Ross/Lester/Espino all look like #4 guys at this point. Fedde is hurt and due for regression. This lineup isn’t going to mash it’s way to any trophies and Max can’t do it all. I’d argue we stand pat and let the chips fall where they may but taking a last stab at it with Max, Trea, Soto and (a potentially rested) Strasburg all together should be considered, right?
@MNB4
ReplyDeleteI like the idea of going after a starter especially if you can basically give a low level prospect and eat salary. Maybe Kikuchi or Duffy could be available? But I have to think they'll be a target for a lot of people. Those are the two rentals that jump out having solid seasons
Win a game against the Rays? Check!
ReplyDeleteSweep the Rays? Check!
ReplyDeleteThis is not the same team that stumbled through April and May. It's looser, faster on its feet and able to generate its own luck.
ReplyDeleteSchwarber's magic streak has ignited the rest of the line-up --- and somehow DM is able to juggle and re-assemble a pitching corps from a revolving door of injuries. Not sure how much longer this will last, but it is definitely season-defining.
Time to re-calibrate expectations for this 14 game stretch.
Nats only need to go 3-8 from here to meet Harpers goal of 6-8. That’s just one win per series vs LAD, @SD, and @SF. That should definitely be doable
ReplyDeleteAccording to my calculations only two Max starts left. Think one of our other pitchers can grab a W?
ReplyDelete7-7 would be an incredible feat on this swing, but gotta love starting off 3-0 here. Only complaint so far is that we aren't one game above Harper's #s (splitting the 4 game series with MIA).
ReplyDeleteMaybe we can surprise one of these teams. Feels like we used to own SD, but maybe that's in my head.
Looking back at h2h record we’ve fared well against SD, but this year’s Padres are a very different team. I would be elated with a split on the road.
ReplyDelete2019: 3-4
2018: 5-2
2017: 4-2
2016: 3-4
2015: 5-2
2014: 4-3
Goal at this point should be 7-7. 3 wins over the next 3 series would be a disappointment, though not unrealistic, especially given who those teams are. I'd say the best bet is splitting with the Dodgers, then taking 1 each from SD and SF.
ReplyDeleteNo predictions; I don't want to jinx this. But on this stretch, they've been good at surpassing expectations. For three weeks, a month, they've been playing up to the competition.
ReplyDeleteDown to just three infielders? How do you let that happen?
ReplyDeleteI read on the Nats site that Kieboom, Garcia, and Sanchez are all unavailable at AAA (injured perhaps?). Sort of a fluky situation.
ReplyDeleteI wonder why Corbin’s effectiveness has declined so much. I checked the Average Fastball below on FG, and it was like 92 in 2019 and 91.9 now. So that is not the cause. And that makes me think he could return to effectiveness with improved command.
On the brightside, looks like the Nats will miss Bauer. So that makes a series split somewhat more likely
ReplyDeleteIt’s the slider for Corbin. He’s lost a couple ticks, going from about 82mph to 80. His swingingstrike% on sliders has dropped from 28% to 18% and thus Ks have plummeted from 51% to about 29% on that pitch. O-contact is way up from 28% to 47%. Movement on is roughly the same, but seems to me like hitters are just picking it up much earlier than in 2019.
ReplyDeleteHis chase rate has fallen off dramatically and contact rate outside the zone is way up. Corbin has stated something to the effect that command is the problem. I can buy this if his FB isn't hitting the spots it makes it easier for hitters to lay off the slider when it's unhittable.
ReplyDeleteI guess he lives a lot in the bottom corner and when either pitch there floats into hittable territory it gets mashed. On the other hand, if he throws both on the edge then you have no chance to hit the slider. Right?
In my mind, if command is the problem, that’s a good thing, right? Velo drops are frequently irreversible, but command can be regained over time, no?
ReplyDeleteDodgers go 7-0 against the Nats this season
ReplyDeleteThat Dodgers series was brutal. Turner being out for the whole thing plus Schwarber getting injured is a reminder of what Harper's been saying all season; this offense is desperately thin. Thus far we have Turner, Soto, Schwarber, and the Bell/Zim platoon as adequate offensive performers, plus Gomes qualifies as "fine for a catcher." Soto slumped in June but Schwarber went off and that picked up the slack. Meanwhile, though, Harrison slumped (Castro picked it up a little, but still), Robles hasn't been good at anything other than OBP, Avila hasn't hit, and Mercer/Stevenson/Parra haven't been all that. Losing two of our top four hitters is a recipe for disaster, and the bullpen meltdown in Max's game was beyond ugly (if only to be expected to happen now and again given the number of key bullpen injuries; no one expected Clay, Voth, and Kyle McGowin to have to pitch key innings).
ReplyDeleteMeanwhile, we now have Alcides Escobar leading off, which is something that Ned Yost got rightfully excoriated for years. I suppose I don't mind too much since the only other option is to move Robles (and his OBP) up there. Thankfully, he had a huge night and Turner's return to the lineup was exactly what we desperately needed, allowing the offense to pick up the slack for Lester's poor pitching.
It all goes to show the major issue with this year's Nats roster: it's not that it isn't good, it's that it's desperately thin. There just isn't a Plan B for a Trea Turner injury. Key performers *have* to be healthy and performing.
Fortunately, we now face the Padres and Giants for six more games needing only two wins to keep with Harper's schedule. Also fortunately, the rest of the NL East continues to scuffle and we find ourselves only four out and still in second. If Schwarber comes back after the ASG still hitting well and the injury bug gives us a break, there's definitely still a shot at continuing this positive run.
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