Not much more to talk about for the moment. If you care about draft picks this is a pretty big series against the Marlins, who the Nats briefly fell under a few days ago. But otherwise even their potential for spoiler is limited with the Braves surging, the Mets falling, and the Phillies being their .500 self. San Diego may be hurting but it's Cincy and St. Louis taking advantage of it. As it probably should be, we've all seen the NL East this year.
Kid Watch - Now with season stats! Look don't get too caught up with what these guys do. A lot of time other teams are feeling these guys out and that can mean a different set of pitches than they'll see 100 games from now, or 200. Remember Tyler Moore? 10 homers in his first 170 PAs. Then 20 HR in the remaining 681 in his career. Victor Robles, who a lot of people are ready to write off who is still younger than three of these guys (and just a few months older than Kieboom), hit .288 / .348 / .525 in his second cup of coffee. What they do now means something but it doesn't mean everything.
Carter Kieboom .250 / .409 / .625 (.259 / .356 / .424) Nice week for OK Boomer as Carter hit a couple homers and walked 4 times.
Luis Garcia .167 / .211 / .222 (.206 / .261 / .361) Rough week as he still looks to get the power going. (He was the Nats leading power bat in the minors. Though you'd probably put Ruiz there now)
Tres Barrera .500 / .600 / .500 (.256 / .358 / .354) - barely playing bc Adams is so hot at the plate.
Riley Adams .500 / .563 / .929 (.230 / .309 / .410) - so hot at the plate. .600 BABIP tells you it's a hot streak but you should have figured that out from the .500 batting average.
Lane Thomas .636 / 733 / 1.000 (.222 / .372 / .302) - see above. More interested in the 1 K, Strikeouts and the potential for a bunch in the majors has been an issue for Thomas.
People have asked about Thomas more given his start and the truth is he's not a bad player. Cardinals are just stacked at OF. Their starting group is 22, 26, 27 and all hitting above average. The injury fill in is also 27 and above average. They have a 25 yo in the majors they like, they just moved up a 22 yo to AAA they like, they have a 24 yo in AA that's been a pleasant surprise. There are a handful of teenage ROK guys with real potential. They didn't see Thomas as more than a 3/4 guy, and with this glut of talent he was the odd man out. They probably aren't wrong but still for Lester - who is a guy who can eat innings against dregs and not much else - it's a coup even if all he ends up as is a slightly better Andrew Stevenson.
Josiah Gray - 1 start 3.00 ERA 1.00 WHIP 6 K/9 (3.90, 1.167 WHIP, 10.5 K/9) Middling results. Gray has now given up an incredible 11 homers in 30 IP and it's a race to see if he gets better or the league starts killing him, because these homers can't keep being solo.
Mason Thompson - 1.1 IP, 13.50 ERA, 3 WHIP, 6.8 K/9 (10IP, 3.60 ERA, 1.8 WHIP, 7.2 K/9) Wildness finally caught up with Mason this week, but really it's that lack of Ks that bother me. For a live arm, he doesn't seem very live.
Gabe Klobosits - 2.2 IP, 6.75 ERA, 2.25 WHIP, 3.4K/9 (11.1 IP, 5.56 ERA, 1.588 WHIP, 4.0 K/9) another bad week, another week of proof he's not a major league pitcher
Some promising hittng results, some not promising pitching results. I'll take a mixed bag right now.
I'm sad to agreee that Klobosits does not look like an MLB pitcher. Neither does Nolin or several others.
ReplyDeleteIt is regretful that Klobosits appears to be getting Klobbered rather than doing the Klobbering.
ReplyDeleteWhat's weirdly fascinating about Gray is not only that he's given up so many solo HRs but that he hasn't given up ANY runs by means other than by the solo HR. You just have to look at that and go, "Baseball." And hope he stops giving up HRs.
On the substance, I agree with the whole column, as well as the comment above on Klobosits. And like all fan bases, we are susceptible to the Tyler Moore bandwagon effect. However, there are other considerations--especially for readers who blew past your appropriate conclusion: "I'll take a mixed bag right now."
ReplyDeleteFirst, this is the smallest of small sample sizes (that cuts both ways--for better or worse we don't know). Second, we can expect a standard distribution of success in the 12 newcomers--some are going to prove themselves and become everyday players and some who look inadequate will continue to be so. Third, expectations need to be adjusted for what they cost us. Ruiz and Gray better be good because they cost us Scherzer and Turner. Anything we get from Lane Thomas is worth more to the team than Jon Lester. Fourth, looking at expectations in a different way, nobody we traded (except Turner) was going to be on the 2022 roster, so the bar is fairly low on what constitutes a good return.
I, for one, find that following the new talent (and the newly elevated talent) is fun...far more so than watching the same old guys play out a disappointing season.
Rizzo's coup is the stock-piling of decent catchers. It's a premium position. I see Rizzo flipping one of the 3 for a pitcher or position player, using this to build the roster. If all three have a strong September, this plays into our ability to deal in the off-season.
ReplyDelete@Dezo - Giving up runs by dinger makes me think of a pitcher the Nats used to have and is now pitching out west. He led the league (or was it MLB?) by giving up ~80% of his runs via the long ball.
ReplyDelete@Natty - My thoughts exactly. Barrera is probably the long-term backup option, meaning Adams playing like this (and maintaining it into the end of September) could be huge for a trade in the offseason. Clearly they aren't trading Ruiz, and Adams for now looks like more than a backup, so he's the one you have to flip.
ReplyDeleteBut dear lord does the pitching look bad right now. It's tough to watch. There isn't a single arm in the BP that I trust, and Gray is really the only fun starter to watch (well I like watching Espino, but only because it harkens back to the days of Jamie Moyer blowing 83mph fastballs by people)
I'm impressed by Josiah Gray. He's young and inexperienced, but he's pounding the strike zone. As W. Patterson noted, his propensity for home runs (but few other runs) resembles Max. He's a fly ball pitcher, and August at Nats Park (and elsewhere) is never ideal for a fly ball pitcher. Sure, batters will adjust to him, but hopefully, he will develop his third and fourth pitches and stay ahead of the batters. He looks to be a solid #3, maybe more.
ReplyDeleteThe bullpen is truly terrible, but that is to be expected on a team with almost no starting pitching. It's not like we can push our wannabe #5 pitchers into the bullpen, because most of our rotation is #5 (or worse) pitchers. But Finnegan has been good. And Machado (small sample size) has been good.
The other good news was Corbin. He showed that he's not done yet. A strong performance which solidifies his position as #2 (or #1) starter for the re-building team.
ReplyDeleteSteven Grossman - agree - I'm only posting weekly because what else is there to do. Really we should let them play, come back at year's end, evaluate those 40-50-60 games. Make some moves, repeat in 2022 evaluating at like Memorial Day, ASB, Labor Day, End of season.
ReplyDeleteNatty - I think Rizzo did as well as he could. He added alot of players who can be evaluated by the end of 2022 and thus tell him if they can quickly restock with prime Soto or need to long-term plan possibly past Juan.
W Pat - reminds me more of ol' Brad Radke. Which would be great!
CP - There's at least a plan with the bats. Soto is Soto. A catcher should come through. If Garcia and/or Kieboom (or House) make it - and I'd say there's a decent chance one will - there's a base here. CF will be the big issue if Robles doesn't get right but he is Kieboom's age basically. Sign a big name and you have a core of four you can build to 6 pretty easy (You can almost always find a 1B and corner OF.) then you'll have to get lucky.
The pitching is relying a lot on two of three happening - Strasburg getting healthy, Corbin getting ace right, Cavalli being ML ace level and that's a bigger Q. They can also sign someone here but that's harder with Stras and Corbins contracts still looming.
Agreed that Finnegan and Machado are reliable arms (assuming that Machado isn’t about to decline due to heavy usage).
ReplyDeleteWhat is an ROK? Is that ‘Rookie’?
@Harper - I think that's pretty much correct although I'd say that neither Corbin nor Cavalli really need to be at "ace" level for this to work. Teams with four 2/3s and not real ace the playoffs every year.
ReplyDeleteThis team really only has FA room to bring in one top level starter (Max!), so the rest of the rotation needs to come from what we have.
So it really is 2 of 3 - Stras is back and mostly himself, Corbin again becomes a pitcher you're happy to see pitch in a playoff game or Cavalli becomes a pitcher you're happy to see pitch in a playoff game. (If I'm right and those odds are around 50%, 20% and 65% respectively, so the chances that two or more of them will come in for the Nats is a little worse than 50/50. I'll take it!)
@G Cracka X:
ReplyDeleteIf you're talking minor leagues, yeah, "ROK" is the abbreviation for rookie ball.
Agree with Harper on the lineup: Soto, a catcher, 1 of Kieboom/Garcia/House, a big-name SS signing (who could theoretically slide to 2B when/if House comes up), and some plug-and-play in 1B/LF is a good start to the lineup, better than good if two if the IF group works out and/or Robles (or, hell, Thomas) turns out to be solid (and...honestly, Robles doesn't have to be a star or anything; I will happily take 2019 Robles as a complimentary piece; a CF with his glove just has to be adequate with the bat to be an average-or-better player).
But the SP...yeesh. We desperately need either Stras or Corbin to return to 2019ish levels, given those contracts.
Anon @ 10:48 - true but I'm figuring 5 to be a flat out mess in this scenario and Gray to fit in at 4 as a 4 (he could be better or worse so splitting the diff). So I lean a little more into needing an ace.
ReplyDeleteDezo - yeah, as far as pitching has gone the Nats have made their bed for the most part. You can sign an ace but my assumption there's only one big contract out there and I don't see how you can ignore the offense at this point and put another big set of $$$ into a starter.
Stras, Corbin and Max's $15 million deferred total around $70ish million in salary in 2022. What big free agent contracts, shortstop or otherwise, do you suppose the Nats are willing to offer?
ReplyDeleteThey can just sign a free agent (SS or otherwise) to a big contract with lots of deferred money.
ReplyDeleteSeth Romero should be starting for the Nats every fifth day. It's a shame he hasn't put himself in the position to hold down that spot. Our outlook for next year and beyond would look a lot different if he was.
ReplyDeleteI think this winter they should grab a FA bat to a long deal -- someone like Scwarber for 4-5 years. Keep Bell, and grab a slew of one-year guys on pillow contracts or reclamation projects, and flip them in July.
ReplyDeleteBarrera is the big find this year -- he's probably not a starter, but he looks like he's going to be a solid big-league #2 catcher for a long time, and he just showed up from AA.