The Mariners beat the A's again. The Mariners - who are a whopping 14 games over their pythag expectation (expected W-L record based on runs scored and allowed) have been bouyed by being 15 games over in 1-run games. Is it something a team can count on? Not at all. But damn if it doesn't drive a nice narrative when writing about a team's season.
They have passed the Blue Jays who are a solid 8 games under their pythag and a middling one game under in 1-run games. (and also play in a deeper division).
The Giants are going to have their best year possibly ever in a season where people predicted them to finish maybe a distant third. How are they doing it? Well catching a few breaks (+4 pythag) helps but also this :
- Posey - best year since 2015
- Belt - best year ever (at 33!)
- Crawford - best year ever (at 34!)
- Longoria - best year since 2012
- Duggar, Wade, Ruf - are fill-ins having kind of their best years ever
Who's disappointing?
Li'l Yaz - who they probably expected to be good and is merely ok, Alex Dickerson a little bit I guess
ALSO
- Gausman - best year ever
- DeScalfini - Best year since 2016
- Webb - best year ever
- Wood - first healthy year 2018
- Cueto - best year since 2016
relievers Zack Little and Dom Leone are also having best seasons in a long while/ ever. As was starter Aaron Sanchez before getting hurt. A team where 2/3rds of the roster are performing at the very top of expectations? That can explain an 81 team easily crossing 100 wins.
Who disappointed?
Ummmmm, maybe Kazmir? That's like 11 innings.
They were supposed to be well behind the Padres who are fighting to stay above .500 now. Why? Again being on the unlucky side of where the ball bounced hurts (-4 pythag) but there's more to it.
Here's a list of batters for the Padres doing surprisingly well.
What about pitchers? Ok same list for them
Got that? Not many flat out disappointments, maybe Pham or Hudson since they traded for him, only a couple injuries (A 3/4 season of Tatis obviously, C Nola would have probably helped) but nearly every guy performing on the low end of expectations. A whole team spitting out at 90-95% of what they could do, takes a 95 win team to 81.
Them's the breaks. Baseball isn't fair.
@Harper I think this is a really important point, and one that you made even more bluntly on twitter. In any competitive human endeavor, good and bad fortune beyond the control of any active participant plays a huge role in determining the outcome.
ReplyDeleteThis is unsatisfying because we understand the world through stories and our brains will try their damndest to force patterns on that randomness (and even here, I find myself thinking about whether there were playing time patterns or training regiments or something that would explain some of SFG's overperformance, for example), but the world and its natural forces are indifferent to us and even if some of that variance is eventually explainable, much of it never will be. Kendrick wasn't destined to hit that grand slam. He deserves credit for it, as we all own the results of our actions, but in some sense he also "got lucky".
I know this will never be a part of mainstream sports commentary because it would erode how many fans relate to sports and in aggregate probably cost the industry money, but I do expect the analytics crowd to recognize randomness as a real and impactful element in the game. (Just as it is in business and in politics and in just about every facet of life - we'd be a much healthier society if we'd recognize that.)
Thanks for bringing this up, Harper.
I'm a huge believer in luck. You can't always explain it. Sometimes the ball doesn't bounce your way. Sometimes Strasburg gets ANOTHER injury.
ReplyDeleteHowever...
I do think the manager deserves a lot of credit in these situations when teams perform better than expected or better than the back of their collective baseballs cards might indicate. Also, morale.
I think the difference maker for the Giants is also partially tied to roster construction. Similar to the Dodgers (which makes sense since that's where Farhan came over from), everybody on the bench is the equivalent of a ++ 4th OF or super utility IF. They don't have any superstars in the lineup (well until the Bryant trade), but they also have very few duds. Turns out having a complete team is much more important so that when, for instance, your starting 3B goes down, you can slot in someone like Wilmer Flores who could easily start on some lesser teams in the league (pre-Bryant trade). Or having an OF rotation of Ruf, Duggar, Yaz, Bryant, Slater, and Wade.
ReplyDeleteSome of this is surely luck, but when you have 6 starter quality OFs and 6 starter quality IF, missing on a couple of them or having a few injuries doesn't tank the team. In hindsight, this Giants team was built to be at least a .500 team, if not even a 90 win team. Getting dealt an inside straight just allowed them to push the envelope and have their winningest season ever in SF
There is no luck, only providence
ReplyDeleteI also think (just my opinion, could be totally wrong) that TT may deserve to be NL MVP. Out of the four top position players, he’s the only one who grades out positively on offense and defense, and he’s the only one contributing to a team that is going to make the playoffs. So, if you define V as ‘only playoff bound players’ since having a great season in a non playoff year isn’t super useful for the org, I think TT has a case
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