With nothing much to talk about as the season winds down (there's only so many daily takes you can have on the young players) the Nats talk has shifted to "Can Juan Soto win the MVP?" It's a fair question because as we discussed before - Juan's offensive season is fantastic, probably best in the league and his defense is fair enough not to hurt his cause (also helps that the other contenders close offensively aren't great defensively either)
Juan continues to make his case by being incredibly hot, in the past 8 games he's hitting .519 / .641 / .852. This is thanks to a mix of his amazing talent, complete lack of pressure, and facing a series of teams who don't care about winning and are filled with young, mostly crappy, pitchers, getting a chance as their own meaningless seasons wind down. If you think I'm being dismissive by mentioning other things understand that the above is true for everyone and they aren't hitting like this so it IS mostly his amazing talent.
Bryce (past 8: .423 / .568 / .769) and Tatis (.343 / .395 / .543) haven't been as hot (who could) but they have kept up their ends at the plate. Unfortunately for Tatis his team has tanked and in a worst case scenario could officially be out of the playoffs in a few days. Unfortunately for Bryce, who's team has actually gone 6-2 recently, the Braves (4 in a row) and STL (10 in a row!) have kept his team on the outside looking in.
The question comes down really to what you think an MVP is and frankly I've said this before many times and will continue to do so : If you make an award selection a vote you are making it inherently subjective and you are LITERALLY ASKING PEOPLE WHAT THEY THINK. So they should be able to vote any way they want and as long as it seems somewhat defensible it should be ok. If that makes you angry I'm not sure what to tell you. I assume you don't want a computer spitting out a WAR value and the award just going to that person. I know I don't. That's not fun.
Some people will look at Juan and say "That's the best player" and give it to him. Defensible
Some people will look at Bryce and say "Value is about how important the games are and that's the best player on a team that had a chance for the playoffs late in the year" and give it to him.
Some people will look at Tatus and say "Actually this is the best overall player AND his team was in the playoff hunt most of the year and we'd know this if he didn't miss a month" and give it to him
Hell some people will look at Tyler O'Neill and see the player helping to carry his team to the playoffs (.345 / .413 / .745 during their 13-2 stretch). Some may even look at Max (7-0 0.78 ERA) and see this guy trying to carry his new team to a division title.
ALL THESE ARE OK. Argue what you want but if you get mad at this... well nothing will happen to you but I will think less of you and you don't want that. You want my esteem!
But Juan is unimpeachable! You see what he's doing!
Yes I do. I've seen what he's done all year. And that means I saw his run hitting .247 with 2 homers and 3 doubles over a month of baseball while his team went 9-19. Remember that 0-5 stretch where the Nats got swept by the Orioles? The one pretty much everyone agrees that killed the season? I remember. And I remember Juan had 2 hits in 16 ABs and only drove in himself on a solo homer in those 5 games.
Obviously you can find these stretches for everyone but the point is - Juan isn't impeachable. He's had bad stretches during the season when the games mattered before the sell-off and those bad stretches are a big part of the reason he's on a team so bad now that they can't win with him hitting like Babe Ruth on greenies even playing garbage teams.
Juan could win the MVP. He's had a deserving season. If he does great. But if he doesn't - that's ok, too. This isn't a slam dunk and there likely isn't time to make it one for him.
Team success just seems to matter a lot to the voters. He arguably should've had it last year over Freeman, but the Nats stunk and the Braves made it to the playoffs. I think him winning the batting title gave them cover to not vote for him, and if he wins it again this year they'll do the same thing.
ReplyDeleteI said it previously, but if I was voting I'd have to give it to Bryce myself. But it's not going to be a unanimous decision by any means, and I could see plenty of voters going for Soto or Tatis because they're the young stars. But MVP=best offensive player for most voters, and based off WAR, OPS, wRC+, wOBA, or whatever advanced stat you like best, Bryce is #1. Soto is a close second, but the stats clearly indicate Bryce is better on this season as a whole
ReplyDeleteIt comes down to what is meant by “valuable.” If it’s an inaccurate synonym for “outstanding,” then give it to the player who had, by any number of reasonable metrics, the best season. However, if one believes the award should go to the player who made the largest contribution to a team’s successful season, then it becomes more complex and somewhat subjective. I’m reminded of Branch Rickey’s reply when Ralph Kiner asked for a raise after leading the league in homeruns. Rickey said, “well, we finished last with you, I’m sure we could have finished last without you.
ReplyDeleteObviously soto is reading this blog.
ReplyDeleteBegs the question: If all three of Bryce, Tatis, and Soto are amazing at many things - where is each player not amazing? Why not focus on their deficiencies instead of debating whether wOBA or wRC+ matters more? Bryce's strikeout rate at 21.5%, while Tatis is 26.6% (league average is 24%). Soto is t-10th at 13.8%. In an era where strikeouts have never been higher, I think this is noteworthy. I guess Soto is bad at stealing bases... but what else?
ReplyDeleteel chupo - the slight increase in presence of the Hank Aaron award helps out too
ReplyDeleteCP - so far! Soto is really pushing it.
VI - I think that's still most peoples opinion.
Ole PBN - well... Soto is a worse fielder considering age and position (but you can't really factor age in it right now - so that's a wash with Bryce. That's more of a long-term thing) My guess watching Soto there isn't anything at the plate he does wrong
Great blog.
ReplyDelete