Beacuse of the impending "lockout"* free agency is in a weird spot. There were some early signings to get ahead of what most assume will be a delay into a new CBA with little practical impact, but others are waiting just in case there's something in the new CBA that might change their approach. With the lock out date (December 2nd) coming close the question is whether we see a bunch of signings or a stall
But one thing won't change - the basic disinterest it seems the Nats have in any moves. Again if you are looking at the chicken bones you threw on the ground (pick those up! Dogs can choke on those!) it seems the Nats are more "can we be good in 2023?" than "we are going to try to be good in 2023" mode
In other news - some Nats were in the AFL. While you shouldn't pay attention to AFL stats other than if you have a strong feeling going in and want to see some confirmation here's a quick rundown.
Cole Henry struck a bunch of guys out but is wild. Todd Peterson you never heard of, he was ok. Jackson Rutledge looked bad. Not Brady House Jackson Cluff walked a bunch and got a bunch of singles. C Drew Millas they got in trade was bad. Israel Pineda was a no patience no power DH in limited ABs. Donovan Casey hit for some pop in limited ABs.
Rule 5 guys were announced and no big surprises. Out of the guys they list that are internal prospects that might get taken it's hard to see Cate, a starter who was bad last year with no eye popping skill, or Pineda a catcher who was bad last year with no eye popping skill, being selecting. Richard Guasch, a reliever, might draw some interest because he's got a live arm and sometimes these guys just "get it" and you can hide him as the last man in the pen. Jordy Barley also might get selected but that's a long play as he's almost certainly not ready for the majors and won't be anytime soon. You'd grab him, stash him, and then have him in your minors at 22 in 2023. If you like him it's not a bad play... if you are going nowhere. But there are other guys available from other teams who fit both these profiles so we'll see.
*technically true but who cares about a lockout or strike when no one is actually supposed to be doing anything?
Your strength is your intelligence and your analytics. That's why so many of us read and enjoy your columns.
ReplyDeleteOn the other hand, I don't recollect anytime that you have claimed to be "an insider." Rizzo doesn't call you every Sunday night to describe his troubles and ask your advice. That's fine with me--given Rizzo's approach, I doubt there are any insiders--there are no leaks and Rizzo usually just doles out mis-direction when he isn't being totally silent.
So...I am a bit surprised that you would write: "But one thing won't change - the basic disinterest it seems the Nats have in any moves." It seems even more misplaced given your footnote tht not much would be going on this time of year, with or without a lock-out.
My point--try not to feed the fan anxiety that we are doomed for years. Most of the time--no news is just that, no news.
Rizzo is going to make a really surprising move like he does every offseason, and it's crazy of us to think we know what that will be. Maybe the crazy move this offseason is to back a dumptruck full of bank notes to Soto's house, who knows. But In Rizzo We Trust, he has made very few "bad" moves, so whatever he comes up with I know will help the team.
ReplyDeleteI just really want that move to be to sign one of the FA SS's...
I am an insider! There done.
ReplyDeleteok, no I'm not but the feeling this offseason is definitely different in the past where there were always rumblings, however mild, that something might be up. It's not just that the feeling is different, but the chatter is different. Not that Rizzo can't surprise but in the past when he did it was more "we're going after a few things - HEY! He got something big" then something completely out of nowhere. A big signing this offseason would be a surprise, at least right now and to me.
@Harper I am fine with the narrative: "this quiet fall feels different than other quiet falls and here's why I say it...." That's a useful insight. I still wouldn't rule out misdirection though. This is Rizzo after all.
ReplyDelete@CP I am generally of the In Rizzo We Trust school, as long as we acknowledge their is no-prefection and not all surprises are good ones. With Harper's concurrence, I would like to see if we can have some fun speculating on Rizzo's big surprise.
For example, I imagine Rizzo, swooping in and trying to grab Freddie Freeman--it will probably take 6 years/$180 million, but not the $250-300 million that the top FA SS's will command. Of course, he then turns to Boras (publicly I hope) and says something like: where did you get the idea that the Nats are not planning to compete every year. Josh Bell then backs up Freeman at first as needed and splits time between LF and DH. Escobar is fine if Soto, Bell and Freeman are carrying the load. Braves, of course, are either throroughly demoralized or spend a lot more than they intended. This is fantasy, of course!!!! What's yours?
Rizzo makes unexpected moves, preparing with cards held close to his chest.
ReplyDeleteThat said, he is steady. He builds the team a piece at a time, always trying to improve.
So my expectation is an incremental move, possibly on the bigger side, that brings on board a quality FA to fix a hole for the next 3-4 years. Something that assures Soto (and Boras).
What do I know? But its not like Rizzo NOT to make a move if he has the opportunity.
I'm with Harper here...it's one thing to play your cards close to your chest. It's another thing entirely to play them so close that no one else even knows you're in the game. The Nationals haven't been mentioned at all in connection with...basically any free agent or trade whatsoever, no matter whose name it is. The only time I've seen the Nationals mentioned at all in weeks on MLBTR, for example, is when there's a story discussing extensions for other young players (like the recent Franco extension), where somebody will cut/paste the obligatory "and it has been rumored that a Juan Soto extension could be in the range of $400M-$500M" and move on.
ReplyDeleteAnd frankly, the Nats' farm system isn't in any condition to swing a trade. (I mean, you could dream of, say, a trade with the A's for Chapman and Manaea, players who would slot into our 2022 needs perfectly, but other teams can offer a lot more than we can, plus improving the Nats requires players who are going to be around for at least 3-4 years, not 1-2; 1-2-year additions are incremental moves with an eye on deadline trades.)
So basically, as every FA drops off the board (Graveman, Loup, DeSclafani, Matz), or stories come out about how a particular FA has offers from X teams and names every one of the X (Gausman), and the Nats are absent, it starts to feel like the Nats aren't getting mentioned because the Rizzo isn't making inquiries or offers, suggesting that he's absolutely laser-focused on specific players or that he's decided that he's going to gather leftover scraps and basically run with 2022's team, or that the Lerners don't want him making moves (or he himself doesn't want to make moves, or both) until after the CBA is settled instead of making a rush to sign contracts.
And maybe that's not true. Maybe the next thing that'll happen is "Breaking! Nationals sign Robbie Ray to a 6-year/$200M deal!" or some such wild news. But I see where Harper's coming from. A complete absence of Nationals mentions in the rumor mill means that whatever Rizzo is doing, it's not prompting agents to leak and reporters to even talk about it.
Max is about to become a Met - let that sink in.
ReplyDeleteThe Max to the Mets thing is a little surprising and more than a little disappointing. I have no qualms with Max not being with the Nats moving forward -- I don't think that it would make sense either for the Nats to pay Max $40m a year when they aren't contending (for at least a portion of it) or for Max to want to spend the final few years of his career playing for a team that might not be a playoff team for any of those years. But it is a surprise to me that he would join the Mets when they are equally not necessarily going to be a contender. I'm at least skeptical that even with Max and the other moves they made this week that they will be contending for anything more than the WC; I don't think their offense will be good enough. But I guess $42m a year for three years would be difficult to turn down.
ReplyDeleteIt'll just be gross to watch him pitch for the Mets, who I personally dislike far more than the Phils or Braves.
So much for Max staying on the West Coast and for wanting to be with a serious contender. Money trumps everything I guess.
ReplyDeleteIn the meantime, there is not a peep from the Nats other than signing a couple of broken down or older career minor leaguers to minor league deals and adding a couple of prospects to the major league roster. We definitely need a quality left fielder (Taylor or Schwarber), one starting pitcher as a #3 starter and 2 back end relievers.
Oh Max. What a disappointment. Going to a mediocre team, in a market with cold weather in the spring and fall and hot weather in the summer. In other words, not California. And a team with a past history of blowing out arms. See Matt Harvey, Steven Matz, and Thor -- and not even counting DeGrom.
ReplyDeleteAnd no deferred salary! Good for Max. Not so good for Nats fans unless one has a perverse fascination for "revenge" games.
ReplyDeleteGood Park Factor if you want to close a career with low ERAs
ReplyDeleteOn Max: Ugh.... that's all
ReplyDeleteOn the rest of FA: well, I really wanted the Nats to snag a SS, and the Rangers have gone and snagged 2. wtf
I see Steve Cohen has decided to challenge Stenbreiner too.
ReplyDeleteOn one side, it's frustrating that he signed with the Mets. On the other side, he's a player that gave me 6.5 years of incredibly fun baseball, who was underpaid for what he did with us with a silly deferred contract, who we traded mid-season and never complained, and now he's cashing in on a monster contract at the end of his career that almost seems like a premium for competing against the Nats was built in it's so out of market. I hope Nats fans give him a standing O when he comes back in town, that he continues to be a stud, and that the Mets only win one out of every five games.
Nuts to see him, Bryce, Juan and Trea all in the MVP conversation this year. What a wild run the Nats had.
I am okay with Max going to the Mets. If we want him in a Nats hat in Cooperstown, it will help if he only has the one WS title here, and finishing his career with the Mets increases the likelihood of that. I hope he stays healthy and adds to his HoF portfolio — I think he's probably in already, but one can't be too sure — while not going anywhere in the postseason. It will be sad the couple of times he has a dud game and the NY Post says he's washed up, but I'm sure he can live with it for that kind of money.
ReplyDeleteThe Nats are NOT signing a SS as they would not have resigned Escobar if they were serious about adding a good SS they would be paying 20+ million annually for any of the quality available SS on the market. Next year and probably 2023 are going to be ugly for the Nats.
ReplyDeleteThe Max-to-Mets signing is worthy of a post in itself. He has got himself a very good sunset deal. Will he be worth it? Doubtful. I don't see him as Nolan Ryan. But never count out Max. Unfortunate that Nats fans will be put in the position of occasionally rooting against their HoF candidate.
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