If you take all my position posts together you get a team that looks like this
- 1B - Bell
- 2B - Garcia
- SS - Escobar
- 3B - Kieboom
- RF - Soto
- CF - Thomas
- LF - FA
- C - Ruiz
- SP - Corbin
- SP - FA
- SP - Gray
- SP - Fedde/Ross/Rogers/Adon
- SP - Strasburg/FA
- Closer - FA
- Set-up - FA
The rest of the roster includes Yadi Hernandez, Andrew Stevenson/Victor Robles as 4th and 5th OFs, a veteran to back-up/spot start 2B/3B, Riley Adams/FA as back-up C and 1B. Espino and Finnegan fit into relief spots with probably one or two more arms currently here and a third FA.
Filling in spots lets say Corey Dickerson in the OF, DeSclafani as the SP1, Jordan Lyles as the SP2, Donovan Solano as the 2B, 3B guy and Ryan Tepara and Hector Neris and I don't know Corey Oswalt as the Closer, Set-Up, and other arm respectively. Suero and Thompson fill out the pen.
That's clearly not a winning team
The other day I said 2022 is a rebuilding year but it can go one of two ways
(1) It's a set-up year to possibly compete in 2023. The Nats buy in to a SS and a few SP/RP that will be her for the next 2-3-4 years while letting guys like Ruiz, Gray, Garcia, Thomas, and yes Kieboom have their 2 month, half-year, full-year goes at it. Based on how they do, you trade or sign the one or two guys necessary next off-season to compete, or
(2) It's a complete organizational review year. You get a few guys because you aren't deep enough to just play young guys and not be embarrassing (see the end of last year) but they are grabbed with the thought of trading them if they are any good for more young players. You are here to evaluate anyone you can. Along with the guys noted above you want time for more questionable guys like Adams, Casey, Thompson, Adon, Rogers, McGowin, Klobosits, Clay, and guys past them. Based on how everyone does you decide if you can compete in 2023 and beyond and respond accordingly in the next off-season.
It wasn't supposed to be a choice here. It was always supposed to be (1). They'd reload with Strasburg, Corbin, Soto, Turner*, and Robles holding down the fort. Probably a usable Kieboom a decent 5th in Ross or Fedde and a couple relief arms like Harris and Rainey, set. But out of all that they only have Soto left that you can feel confidence in. They managed to pull in a decent C prospect and some other things of interest but the truth is they have too many holes now. And a lot of how they move forward depends on how strongly they believe that what they have on hand will work out. (1) can still work, if you think Strasburg will be ok by 2023, if you think Corbin is usable, if an OF and Garcia look decent. But if you aren't sure about that it's hard to move forward with (1). You are very likely to build a team good enough to miss the playoffs by a few games.
But as Nats fans (2) is scary because if you come away with the idea that you don't have enough on hand, then it becomes difficult to keep Soto around. You can't be sure that you will have enough in 2 years to convince him to stay and every year that passes the haul you can get for him drops. There probably isn't a haul worth dealing him anytime in 2022 but if you don't look competitive in 2023 there will be teams coming at the Nats with multiple Top 100 guys and how do the Nats resist?
I'll be watching the signings and rumors. The Nats should be in the OF and SP talk - there isn't a lot there. They should be in the relief talk - that's the guys you bring in to deal later. But if the Nats are also seriously into the SS market that bodes well. If not, I get worried, unless all the deal the Nats do make look to go into that 3rd year or beyond.
*In this scenario they still might have dealt Turner but only to grab a SS this offseason. Turning a potential issue (Turner's upcoming FA) into getting some talent while not having a hole.
Probably the easiest way to look at the Nats' Hot Stove situation is if they go into the season with Escobar and Kieboom as the starters at SS/3B. If they do, it almost doesn't matter what else they did (short of nonsense like "they brought in Marte, Ray, and Iglesias on 4-5-year deals"); just draw a big red line through the 2022 season and realize that April through September will be spent rooting for individual statistics, not team wins. Even just a minor move at these positions like replacing Kieboom with Josh Harrison indicates that Rizzo is taking the year seriously.
ReplyDelete(Player I'd like to see the Nats pursue in FA: Chris Taylor. I'm working on the theory here that the Nats genuinely don't know where the holes in the lineup are going to be. Is Thomas a genuinely competent hitter or not? Can Hernandez be relied upon as a solid bat or is "average" his ceiling? Will Garcia develop? Can Escobar hit well enough that he's not an active liability? Can Robles get his head on straight? Is Kieboom officially a bust now? Taylor can play basically any position on the diamond and hit while doing it.)
Obligatory Rosterbation dream: Taylor (4-5 years), Harrison (1-2), Gausman/Stroman (meaning either one, not both, 4-6), T. Anderson (1), Melancon (1), Tepera (1-2), Loup (1-2).
I think Rizzo has to thread a needle. It’s not just about being good enough to convince Soto to stay. He also has to be good AND cheap enough to convince the Lerners to pay to keep Soto. I don’t see them going way over their budget on anybody, and only going a bit over budget if they think they have a legitimate chance to win. So if he spends too much now to get good, we may lose Soto anyway. And if he doesn’t spend enough, or too many prospects bomb out, we will probably lose Soto.
ReplyDeleteSo much of this depends on Corbin "playing like the numbers on the back of his baseball card". Unlike Strasburg, he is not injured or plagued with mechanical issues. So there's that possibility he returns to form, plays like the strong #3 he was in 2019. This would mean starting pitching isn't a complete disaster. Slot in Clay and an FA as starters, hopefully Cavalli is ready in late 2022. If SS does recover, then a decent rotation, but if not, then at least one of the pitching investments works out.
ReplyDelete@Harper, we really, really need the "out of the box" post soon or we will all fall into a deep, dark collective depression.
ReplyDeleteMaybe trade Juan Soto for the entire Tampa Bay lineup?
ReplyDelete@Nattydread:
ReplyDeleteVery true. He's been healthy and is making $20M per year. He's going to start. If he pitches like 2018-19 then the team has the potential to be good. (In 2019, he wasn't a #3 at all, more like a 1c.) If he pitches like 2020, then the team at least has a reliable innings-eater to fill out the back end of the rotation. If he pitches like 2021, then the team has a serious problem.
Set up year? That's a euphemism. Tanking pays. If you don't have a shot at winnning it all (basically that means a 20% chance at winning 90 games), there is no incentive to come in 15th. And I don't see how they win 90 without going over lux tax. So that means more tanking. Plus Braves get Acuna back and have more money. Phillies get the full Dombrowski, and the Mets, well, we'll see how Eppler* does.
ReplyDeleteThe "full Dombrowski" (brilliant, @billyhacker!) in Philadelphia and Anthopoulos in Atlanta portend bad Expo juju for Washington.
ReplyDeletewhy isn't the lynch pin in all of this to just go ahead and sign soto to a deal he can't turn away. 475m for 12 years or something outrageous. rebuild for two years and let money come off the books - and then 2024 start the dominance train
ReplyDeleteanonymous5:17 One of the things I have learned is that money has its time. For the Lerners, that might be right now, after the CBA, after Rizzo gets some other pieces in place, after the next round of MASN gets them closer to the money, or next year. For Soto, that might be right now if the price is right, after he sees where the shortshops and extensions take the top of the market, next year, or maybe he's determined to go to FDA regardless of the offers on the table.
ReplyDeleteThe timing also has to line up for both parties. The dance with Bryce Harper is an example. The team was willing after the WS was over, but then made commitments....while Harper was convinced his best timing was to wait.
Here is what I know--we cannot expect either Rizzo or Boras to show their true hands to the public. Which is not the same thing as being silent. IMO Boras' crack about Soto wanting a competitive team was his attempt to goad the Lerners into a pre-emptive $500 million offer. Even if that worked, it would be too soon to know.