The Nats OF plan was actually fairly well-laid out coming into the season. Soto anchors RF, Robles shakes off 2020s weirdly bad season and mans CF, newly acquired Schwarber plays left. Disappointing Andrew Stevenson holds down the 4th position for pinch-running and late-inning defensive replacements. This should be more than fine... as long as someone doesn't get hurt.
But Schwarber missed a week early and a little more than a week after that, Soto went down for a couple of weeks. Stevenson gave way to Yadiel Hernandez who went from red hot to ice cold in the time it took Soto to get back. A couple weeks after that Robles went down and by June 1st, 50 games into the season Kyle, Victor, and Juan started together just 16 times. To add figurative insult to literal injury all three players started slow.
In June Soto would hit again and Schwarber became SCHWARBER with 16 homers in about as many games to end the month. Robles didn't improve but you took that in stride, until Schwarber went down with an injury. With the wheels coming off of the pitching there wasn't any room for a slow down in the offense and the Nats collapsed. That meant the still injured Schwarber would have to go and off he went for a lottery ticket minor league pitcher*. From there Soto and Robles went separate ways. Soto became SOTO again and nearly got himself an MVP** Robles hit even worse and got sent down to AAA so guys they wanted to evaluate like like Lane Thomas and Hernandez could play more.
Lane Thomas, coming in from the Cardinals, who were stacked in the OF, hit like an All-Star before petering out a little to end the year. Hernandez, playing full time basically the last two months, hit for decent average and power but showed no patience.
That was basically the OF. Only Stevenson would have more than 16 starts, while Harrison, Parra, Bell and Hernan Perez spent some time out there.
Presumed Plan - Soto in RF. Thomas in CF/LF to start the year. A FA in the other position. Robles in AAA.
Reasons for Presumed Plan -
Soto in RF. That's given.
Thomas in CF/LF - Thomas isn't a natural CF but can man the position if needed. The problem is if you don't think Soto is great than your CF really can't be just passable or else you leave the OF as having the potential for huge defensive problems. Thomas would fit better defensively if moved over to LF but it becomes a question if can he hit enough. Remember you can chance onto a Schwarber and stick him in left.
Really it depends on what the Nats pick up in FA. A CF with good defense and Thomas shifts to left. An offensive LF and Thomas plays CF. There's also a chance they let it ride with Yadiel but an outfield of Yadiel, Lane and Juan Soto is a real risk to be very bad defensively and possibly quite bad offensively in two positions, with our limited knowledge of the non-Sotos. I just can't see the Nats doing that. I imagine we'll see a one-off like Schwarber, someone to play here for a year (with maybe a 2nd year option) with the idea they can be flipped if necessary. Seeing who shakes out and grabbing them for something reasonable and putting Thomas in as then needed.
Why is Robles in AAA? Along with bad hitting, Robles had some attitude and focus issues it appears. I think they want to see improvement in a lot of different things before they bring him back.
Why Lane and not Yadi? You go with the guy who's 26/27 next year, not the guy who's 34. Yadi is not part of the next great Nats team.
My Take -
I still think Soto's not good in the field , and is destined for 1B or DH and will die on that hill but he's good enough right now (and probably for a few more years) and he hits like Ted Williams so you let it be until you are forced to make a move. You aren't forced right now. And it's not like he doesn't try. He'll give it his best shot. Any way this is too much talking about Soto in regards to "where he fits into your plans" He fits anywhere you can fit him.
Thomas over Yadi is a simple age play. You have to go with Thomas because he could be a guy on the 2025 Nats. Yadi will be 37 in 2025. Yadi also plays bad LF. He's a 1B DH. Honestly he's a guy that should be on an AL team and the Nats should trade him. I don't think they will. He's got enough potential at the plate to make the Nats want to at least hold onto him until he breaks out so they can get better value. They are going to run the risk of no one wanting him though. I think they can get org filler for him now. That may not be the case after 2022.
Thomas... I think we've seen the best of Thomas, but I also think he's likely to be a very solid 4th OF type who can fill in. His patience is impressive so if he can hit like .250 he can hang and I think he can do that. He could also hit like .275 and a little more power and you have a LF for the next 4 seasons. If he does that though - I really hope its not in CF. And while he probably doesn't become something better than a 3rd OF if there's a chance of lucking into something a player from the deep OF system of the Cardinals is the place it could happen
The FA market is ok. There isn't an ideal fit of a multi-year solution that can carry a team like there is at SS. (which is why we haven't talked about it) Marte is the best FA but at 33 you don't want him for a very long time and someone is giving him more than the Nats would or should. Tommy Pham? Mark Cahna? Corey Dickerson might be ideal. He's a good LF which maybe gives you a little help and has potential for a surprisingly good season. Maybe take on JBJ from the Brewers - a plus CF type who was just awful last year but could just as easily be above average in 2022. The Brewers don't need him and probably wouldn't mind freeing up cash and it might get you a lottery pick of a minor leaguer to boot.
As for Robles. I do think they want him back. Robles is still only 25 next year and
easily has the potential to be a plus CF hitting averagely for the next
3-5 years. That's a big help to any team. (see what MAT is getting at a
plus plus CF hitting below average). I think eventually he'll get a
chance to work it out in the majors next year one way or the other, but I think he starts in the minors because it gives the Nats time to see what they have in Thomas and the FA and sends a little message to Robles.
*How'd Aldo Ramirez do? Pretty terrible! But it was only like 7 innings so whatever
**Sorry. Don't get any feeling he'll get it
What ever happened to outside the box?
ReplyDeleteTrade Soto to the Tigers for Torkleson and Riley Greene. Yes it's their top two prospects and two top 10 prospects in MLB but this is Juan Soto we're talking about. Nats get 3B of the future and an OF replacement. DET is on their way up, they'll probably sign Correa this offseason, maybe even a Verlander reunion, this would make them a national story. (On a personal note this would be devastating because Juan Soto is my favorite player of all time but organizationally it would be good for the Nats).
ocw - it became pretty hard to think of one at every position. maybe we'll do an OOB general finale once we're done looking at the pitching.
ReplyDeleteTrading Soto is a "we're not going to be ready by 2025 move" which might be the case after this season but I think you give this season a chance.
The Tigers might not do this deal (even though MY GOD they should) Orgs get stupid sometime.
So, outfield plans:
ReplyDelete1. Roll with what they've got. Hernandez-Thomas-Soto in the hope that it eventually becomes Thomas-Robles-Soto. Defense would be poor, bats possibly acceptable for the first bunch; defense better, bats worse but still possibly acceptable for the second group.
2. Sign a FA of mid-level competence. Dickerson, Harrison, Rosario, Soler, etc. The CF group is kind of weak, full of names like Inciarte, Pillar, and Dyson who aren't guys you'd want to play full-time, so it's probably LF that gets the boost.
3. Sign a FA of above-average competence. Marte is a top player but 33 and speed is a big part of his game. Canha, Castellanos, Conforto, Schwarber, Chris Taylor. None of these guys is coming on a one-year deal but they can all make a splash in the lineup in one way or another and they'll be cheaper than one of the top-flight SSes or Bryant. (I mean, functionally, you could sign Schwarber and Harrison back for LF/3B and suddenly the lineup looks solidly above average and it'd still cost less than Correa and tie up less in long-term resources.)
Harper - Our 4th OF last year, MAT, won a GG this year while Robles gets sent to the minors. Fair to say we should have built a plan that kept MAT in DC?
ReplyDelete90 of 100 evaluators would have rated Robles over MAT. Letting MAT go was not a bad move --- yes his fielding is GG --- but his bat?
ReplyDeleteA gold glove is nice for the trophy case but 5 GGs did not get St Louis into the World Series. Takeaway 1: A change of scenery can re-focus a player. Takeaway 2: Not time to give up on Robles; the man is young and could still blossom.
Enjoyed watching MAT on defense. He was a pleasure to watch. But at the plate, except for some rare streaks, when bad he was totally bad. Lost. Wish the man well, move on.
Worth observing on MAT: he played a full season, of absolutely stellar defense. His bat was *still* so bad that he was only worth 1.9 fWAR, which is, while not replacement level, still a sub-average MLB regular. (Remember, 2.0 WAR is approximately the level of an average player, while 0.0 literally represents "there are a functionally infinite level of these quad-A guys we could stick into their place.) Taylor played the best defense in the entire league--GG awards are often jokes, but he earned this one--at a key defensive position, and his bat was still so lousy that it earned him a "yeah, whatever." MAT is 30 years old now, and he's had exactly one year (2017) where his bat actually played at a major-league level. And he *has* to play that superhuman grade of defense in order to be a worthwhile player. MAT's bat with merely good defense instead of absurdly great defense...is the same guy as Robles was in 2021.
ReplyDeleteI mean, I wish the guy all the best, and I'm glad that he landed a full-time job (especially since it's over in the AL), but Robles's 2019 was better than any season MAT's ever had except for 2017. The choice was a no-brainer, especially since in both 2019 and 2020 MAT's defense was *not* superlative.