Some quick notes
Old Friend Tyler Clippard has been brought back to DC. The season is pretty clearly focused on turning some veterans into organizational depth (as we'll talk about in a few paragraphs) so this shouldn't be surprising. What is surprising is how little Nats fans think of Clippard.
Clippard leads all Nats in games pitched with 414. (60 more than 2nd place Storen and the next guy Burnett is 100 games fewer). His ERA for the Nats was 2.68. ERA+ 148. WHIP 1.047. There's a pretty strong argument to be made he's the best reliever in Nationals history. Hell, I've made the argument he might be the greatest middle reliever in baseball history (It's not a good argument. He's up there but there are a few guys who last I looked were definitely better) And yet fans treat him like he was a trash reliever. I don't get it.
Outside of a 2017 flop (which you should be happy with - he was garbage for the Astros and my Yankees) he's been better than average every year since 2008. He's good. HE'S GOOD. Or at least he has been. The question now if age has finally caught up with him. He's 37. Last year he was hurt and admittedly more lucky that good. He's losing the ability to miss bats and that could cause trouble. Still if it was the injury and that's cleared up, the Nats have a good arm to thow 60-70 innings which they'll need because their rotation is trash. It's a smart gamble.
While pretty much every starter is in "every day" mode, one player who isn't is Robles. Yesterday Dee Strange-Gordon got ABs in CF. Robles was already a question coming in. He didn't have a good year last year and the Nats management seemed to question his desire to be the best player he could be. Now he's in an arbitration battle with the Nats. For most teams that's inconsequential. For the Nats... well history isn't great about this. I said before only Bell and Soto mattered for arbitration but what I meant was they are the only ones that HAVE to play so you'd know if the Nats were screwing with them if they didn't settle and things looked funny. For a guy like Robles is it his attitude? His play (He's also hitting poorly in Spring but as you know SPRING TRAINING STATS DON'T MATTER*)? Or retribution? Or more likely some combination of all three?
Anyway Robles in CF matters because he can be here cheaply for another two years beyond this one and outside of last year even when he was a below average hitter he was a worthwhile start. They need him to get right and should want him to do so and I'm not 100% sure they do at this point.
Another guy who should be playing everyday in the majors but isn't is Luis Garcia. Garcia rocked AAA last year and has done everything he can with the bat in the minors to show he should be in the majors. His half-year stint last year wasn't overly impressive but as we've talked about before he's only 21 (22 in May) and should be given at least another full year if not two to see if he can round that bat up to at least average. His fielding wasn't great at SS so they seem resigned to move him to 2B but the Nats don't have a star in either position so it's not like he's taking up anyone's rightful spot.
It COULD be said he's going down to AAA to work on 2B then... but that's not what they are saying. They say they could still play him at SS. So what is this about?
The immediate take is service time manipulation but the Nats have never been shy about playing guys in the majors when they should be in the majors. I just don't see that being the reason. Instead I think it's about the goal for the season. I think they want to restock the minors and to do that they want to play as many vets as they can. But not GOOD vets for the most part. They don't want a good record. Just vets someone would trade a lottery ticket for so the Nats can grab a half-dozen of them and get one major leaguer out of it. That's the goal. And Garcia playing everyday does nothing toward that goal. At least that's how I see it, because there isn't any other reason Cesar Hernandez should be playing instead of him.
*He's hitting .083 but with only 1 K. He's putting the ball in play.
Garcia was sent from the Nats' major league camp to the Nats' minor league camp.
ReplyDeleteIs there a difference?
I think it's a risky tradeoff to hope to flip vets for lottery tickets when you have players that NEED reps. Garcia and Robles both did very well in AAA last year, they have no business being there. They need to be facing ML talent. If the Nats are trying to play the long game and develop a team that can compete in a couple years, grabbing lottery tickets over playing Robles/Garcia is not the way to go. If you were debating starting Zimm (had he not retired) vs Bell/Cruz? Sure, make sure you choose the vet that's more likely to be trade bait. But you don't start a vet over young, controllable talent with a MLB floor in the hopes to get a younger, more controllable talent that could have a High-A floor
ReplyDeleteSM - besides playing with minor leaguers instead of majors I don't think so. Like I don't think it's an official send down until the season starts but still it's apparent.
ReplyDeleteCP - Agree, but what else could it be? Hell Kieboom should also have been starting if not hurt and he's probably trash. And Thomas too. Get Riley Adams 3-4 games a week spelling Cruz, Ruiz and Bell.
Ideas for why send Luis down:
ReplyDeleteMaybe they think they're putting together a winner? At least until they have some losses?
Service clocks only matter during rebuilding years?
Luis needs more/different coaching than otherwise available?
Health issues/steroid whispers/family?
Decided he won't ever be good?
Setting up for a trade and prefer to show flashy MiLB numbers?
If they trade Cruz and all the other veterans mid-season, AGAIN, Soto will right and truly be annoyed.
I enjoyed this read because huge portions of it echo my constant thinking on this team. I mean what are they doing? You will probably lose just as many games with Cesar Hernandez at 2B as Luis Garcia. Hernandez isn't good. Escboar isn't good. Adriannza isn't good. Strange-Gordon isn't good. These are not good players. They are not part of the future here. They aren't even good enough to be trade bait for lottery tickets for the most part.
ReplyDeleteIf you aren't seeing if the young players you have are good enough this year, and you aren't signing or trading for quality vets, what are you even doing? Are they trying to compete with the O's for most pointless baseball team in the league?
It's the new minor league focus. Rizzo spent very little time on player development during the World Series run --- and by 2020 it was painfully obvious. Coaching, scouting, general organization... The cupboard was bare.
ReplyDeleteThe major re-organization this year put more training staff in the minors.
Kieboom, Garcia and Robles didn't step up. All three make mistakes and are weak on fundamentals. The raw talent didn't blossom.
Combine that with the overall lack of MiLB talent, Rizzo is looking for ways to build inventory. The veterans are tradable assets, ways to pick up bodies at the deadline.
The vets are good for the clubhouse --- and there's always the chance that they catch late career performance in a bottle. If a handful gel, we're on the periphery of the playoffs, if not, Rizzo is on the phone in June.
In Syracuse, Kieboom, Garcia, Robles and the rest are forced to work harder. You have to figure Rizzo would trade any or all of the three if he could convince another club that a change of scenery would transform them. He's not betting on any of them to be a major future cog, not any more.
Finally, DM seems to prefer a veteran infield. Why? Maybe because he prefers coachable statues and clubhouse leadership to mistake-prone youth.
This season the best we can hope for is another half dozen near-ready lottery tickets and a high draft pick or two. Sooner or later, Rizzo will have enough inventory to make a few clever trades.
The new City Connect uniforms are so beautiful. I think that they nailed the look. They evoke The Greys kit. I am very happy with them. Well done to the Nats.
ReplyDeleteThat is what I'm happiest about re: Nats.
I've always been a huge Clippard fan. I don't think the view that he's trash was ever a majority view among Nats fans, but yeah, I was always surprised that more fans didn't seem to appreciate how good he was over a period of years. Glad to have him back.
ReplyDeleteMy only issue with the City Connect jerseys is that I wish they'd leaned into the pink more. City Connect jerseys are supposed to be fun and flamboyant (just look at Miami's), and the Nats jerseys feel just a bit muted. But you better believe I'm buying one of those hats
ReplyDeleteThey're gonna be bad. Clippard won't hurt them!!
ReplyDeleteThe bullpen is going to be bad, so they definitely need a guy like Clippard to give them 50-70 innings of just decent pitching. If he's better than that, then they can trade him to a contender. Same with any of these vets. Plus with the shortened spring, who knows what injuries will be like in April.
ReplyDeleteThey really need Robles to get it right, he is by far their best defensive player. Their corner outfielders are decent, so they need that strength up the middle.
It seems like they want Garcia to go down and work on some things before they bring him up for good. I wouldn't be surprised if he's starting for them everyday by June, but at the same time, it could easily be August. His development this year is really important for their future, especially after the Kieboom injury.
Ready for baseball!
Let's cool it on the idea that Luis Garcia has "nothing left to prove in AAA." He was great in AAA last year (154 WRC+)...in 37 games. Barely more than a month. He's never had batting stats remotely close to that in any extended stretch at any level.
ReplyDeleteIf he hits >110 WRC+ at AAA for ~50 games this year, then I'd be willing to conclude that he needs to face MLB pitching exclusively going forward to get better. But that hasn't happened yet.
The dude is 21. He can spend a few months in the minors to begin the season (a season, which Harper has made clear, is not going to end with the Nats making the playoffs). If that coincides with one of the Nats' elderly pupu platter of mediocre (or worse than mediocre, if your name is Alcides) infielders building trade value, great. If not, having Garcia rake in the minors is not a bad thing, IMO.
Robles is different. He's crushed the minors on multiple occasions for extended periods. I think the only way he gets better at this point is to face MLB pitching. Hopefully his run in AAA in September rebuilt his confidence. He needs to play every day and get back to 90 WRC+ or better, otherwise he's a fourth OF at best. At least he'll provide some defensive value if he continues to stink at the plate.
After reading Fangraphs on the Nats depth chart, I'm going to take the deep under on wins. It looks like a debacle. Nats are among the worst three in the league at 2nd, SS, 3rd, rotation, center, etc. Which is good news for me because second hand tickets will be cheaper so I can get decent seats to a bunch of games.
ReplyDeleteBought my city connect fitted cap and the nicer shirt, but couldn't pull the trigger on the jersey.
My wish list this year is weird. Either insanely good start somehow or....
ReplyDelete- Corbin bounce back strongly
- 1-2 BP arms pop
- One of the depth bats has a Howie Kendricks type year
- Stras finishes the year healthy and back near peak
- Gray slides in to a borderline 2/3 role
- Cade, Garcia and House show well, first two look good in Sept
- we finish bottom five
Trade in for a few stronger minor league pieces still 1-2 years out and some international cash. Tee up for a team built around Juan.
How crazy of an idea is it to trade Soto for top prospects and/or multiple decent players on long deals? If the Nats are not going to be competitive during the rest of his arb years, would it hurt or help their chances of signing him as a FA if they trade him to a contender then bring him back when they have a better team to put around him? While it would make the next couple seasons pretty bleak for fans, it may be the only way to construct a decent roster given how little the Nats have right now.
ReplyDeleteEven if all the prospects they got last year pay off, they will still need more people. Their MO seems to be signing one big FA at a time, and hopefully that will be Soto. Lower-tier FAs can plug a couple holes but would be a bad strategy for the bulk of the team. The next couple draft classes won't be ready until pretty deep into Juan's new contract, so that isn't the answer either.
I forgot to add that I am happy Clippard and Doolittle are back. It will at least give some nostalgia value to going to games.
ReplyDelete