Monday Quickie - Get used to it

The Nats had a weekend that you should come to expect. They lost more than they won and didn't look particularly good doing it. The win helped keep them from being the worst team in the league right now but the future doesn't look bright. 

This time of year is always the toughest.  Unlike Spring, which can be ignored, theses stats matter. But because they are the only stats we have they have an outsized influence on our perceptions.  We say this every year but will repeat. Wait until Memorial Day. That's tough. I won't always follow it myself, but let's try do it. Waiting until Memorial Day gave us the first sense that Josh Bell might be ok for example.  

What to make of stats until then? Impressions like a Monet canvas. Wait... yes he was an Impressionist.  Listen, art isn't my strong suit. 

What impressions do we have so far? 

Keibert Ruiz looks good.  A lot of contact with lower K numbers.  He's hit it hard.  He's also thrown out a guy. 

Josh Bell, Juan Soto, and Nelson Cruz all have homered. If the Nats are going to have an average offense it's coming from these guys doing this. 

But everyone else looks bad. Hernandez a few singles, no walks, 4 Ks in only 16 PA.  Franco one single, no walks, 4 Ks in only 13 PA. Lane Thomas has a walk! But no singles and 4 Ks in only 8 PAs. Robles has nothing but 4Ks in 9 PA. 

I must single Escobar out. One single in 10 PA and 5 Ks. That's a strikeout every other at bat for a guy who doesn't generate any power (45 homers in a 13 season career). I said "wait until Memorial Day" but there's a good chance this guy isn't here then.

The bench Yadi, DSG, Fox, and Adams. 1 single in 16 PA, no walks, 6 Ks. TBF neither Soto nor Cruz are hitting too much either but guys who HAVE hit get more benefit of the doubt.  Certainly one series is not any reason to worry. 

This is kind of what we expected to see right? Maybe Ruiz is good. The offense will run through Soto, Bell and Cruz. The rest of the offense will determine if the Nats are ok or terrible and right now they are not hitting, not hitting for power, not patient, and striking out too much. And it's not just one of them it's all of them.  Bad tidings. Bad tidings. 

Pitching? 

Fedde has a decent start. Which if he didn't have 5 years of stats behind him might get you thinking he could be ok. He's maybe a 5th that's it, but hey I'll take a 5th if he can finally put together a full season of not sucking. Corbin started ok, then struggled. Adon looked bad, but he's not a major league starter. The one you really look at is Gray who did manage not to give up 3 homers (only 1), but got hit around. As a guy the Nats want to fill the middle of the rotation I'll be paying attention to every start of his. 

The pen? It was fine. Doolittle looks right. And a couple other guys (Rainey, Finnegan) looked like they might work somewhere. Where as Arano and Voth did not.  Given the history of Voth I'm fine if the Nats have a short leash with him, though they might not now with Mason Thompson hurt. For relievers though waiting is almost certainly necessary. It's also something we never do. Because when they are bad it matters a ton and is very visible. 

Other NL East teams? Basically they all got off to starts we expected. No point picking apart staffs and batters when they've only faced one team, they have limited stats, AND we didn't even follow them to make impressions. We'll see if the other Mets starters and their relievers are good... or just faced the Nats bats. If the Phillies are going to homer at a crazy rate... or just faced the gutted A's pitching. If the Braves pitching will strike out a ton of guys... or just faced the Reds bats.  If the Marlins continue to be what we thought they'd be - a great pitching team with a terrible offense that the pitching can't cover.