The Nats teased a better outcome than they got and ended up losing 3 of 4 to the Pirates over the weekend. At no point during this weekend did the Pirates look sneakily better than we thought they would be meaning a question I posed before these two series (PIT then ARI) might have an answer. Are the Nats more 60 win bad or 70 win bad? It looks like 60 win bad.
Still they could sweep the D-backs, currently one of the worst teams in baseball and completely deserving of that record scoring a measley 21 runs in their first nine games, tied for worst in the majors with the lowly Orioles and 2/3rds of a run behind team 28. Let's preview them shall we?
Basically the team is all slumping with the exception of fun-named DH Seth Beer. He was a late 1st round pick for Houston, hit in the minors, got to the D-Backs in the Greinke trade. While kind of athletic actually he does not field well and DH suits him. The other hitter on the team Ketel Marte, matured into a star over the past few years hitting for average and power, is slumping to start the year. As for the rest of the team... well they are mostly young (out of the 14 hitters on the team, nine are 26 or younger, only one is over 28) and they shouldn't be THIS bad. Carson Kelly and Pavin Smith were prospects that ended up average, they've been hideous. Geraldo Perdomo and Daulton Varsho ARE prospects that are currently terrible and below average in their first real time up. So they should hit much better just because average is much better than what they are doing right now. But the remaining 3 bats include the never good Christian Walker, the aging David Peralta, and the just there Yonny Hernandez - all of which could be bad, along with a bench you can figure out the quality level based on having these guys all start. The upshot? This team should score more runs but should also be one of the worst hitting teams in baseball. The Nats should hold this team down.
Pitching wise - the starting pitching might be ok? Might? Zac Gallen had a couple of good half-seasons before a very average 2021. Bumgarner is probably no longer Bumgarner but he is still only 32. Merrill Kelly is perfectly ok. If all three do as well as they can that's an average 1-3. 4 & 5 will be a mess though. Zach Davies is just a guy and anyone else (currently Humberto Castellanos) is just filling space. Nats miss Gallen and Castellanos. The relief pitching is decent. Old friend Mark Melancon is hanging there now until he gets traded later. Noe Ramirez is a guy hard to square up. Martin and Nelson are live arms. Poppen and Mantiply are dead GB guys that keep the ball in play. It's a hard bunch to get that big XBH off of. You have to work them. You can do it, sure. This isn't a shut down group. But there are easier pens to score from.
The Nats pitching should look really good this series. The hitting should be enough. This team is worse than the Nats. The Nats are home Really 2 out of 3 is expected.
We are 3 series in now so we can start making some notes. Nothing more than that but we can start forming the kernel of ideas that in another 2 weeks time might form our first hot takes of the season.
AL East - it is the big mess that everyone expected with the Os on the bottom. No one is standing out though. The Blue Jays are having trouble pitching - Berrios has been terrible. The Yankees are weirdly the best pitching team in the AL and the 2nd worst scoring team. Unsurprisingly IKF + old Josh Donaldson does not equal Carlos Correa.
AL Central - Another as expected division. The White Sox with the solid lead. Honestly though the Guardians should be better. They are getting some ridiculous hitting performances, Myles Straw OPS+ 173, Steven Kwan 227, Jose Ramirez 308, Owen Miller 344! That's a .500 / .545 / .964 line. Pitching still young and good. Good manager. If the AL East beats itself up Cleveland could sneak in. Minnesota's plans are not working. Correa IS hitting like IKF + old Donaldson early.
AL West - Angels are on top? Can they do it? The West looks like the east - all bunched up. But the Rangers here aren't Orioles bad. Oh they can't pitch but they can score runs. Astros are struggling offensively without Correa but his replacement is doing fine and Verlander has started off hot after his loooong break.
NL East - Mets have broken away from a disappointing pack hitting well and pitching great and that's with Scherzer being merely very good and deGrom out. Phillies aren't scoring like we thought they might (though peripherals look better than that). Braves look lost with most of the starters being knocked around. Marlins pitching does look pretty good.
NL Central - Cardinals riding a white hot pen and some unexpectedly good performances at the plate (Pujols!) to first. Brewers are built around the idea Yelich is their star and he may not be anymore. Seiya Suzuki the star we hoped he might be and it's keeping the Cubs interesting.
NL West - The Giants were real? Looks like it. The pitching is again amazing with Carlos Rodon looking unhittable. The Dodgers are doing what we thought they would. The Rockies are above .500 and it's not luck? I'll with hold judgment there.
Hitters
Along with the people we've named and some flukes that always happen we have MVP starts from Arenado and Jose Ramirez. Matt Olson is doing great replacing Freeman. Don't worry Soto is doing fine and by that I mean really really good. Just not having one of those crazy stretches. CJ Cron (5 homers) is a big part of why Rockies are starting hot. Luis Robert has 5 SB to lead the majors. That's more impressive when you find out he's only been on base 6 times from hits and walks. Joey Votto probably the star struggling the most early
Pitchers
Real early as one great/terrible start can make or break a guy. Rodon, Andrew Heaney, and Harper's personal favorite Nestor Cortes have been great. Manaea and a the Mets non star trio (Bassitt, Megill, Carrasco) also deserve nods. Mariners reliever Andres Munoz has been all Ks. Holding off for a couple more starts before declaring trouble but these names have yet to throw a quality start and have looked bad while not doing it - Berrios, Corbin, Wheeler, Ohtani, DeSclafini
Victor Robles got a hit!
ReplyDeleteHis OPS+ is -47.
So, the unanswered question is: Are the 2022 Nats a 100-loss team or a 90-something loss team?
ReplyDelete(Or is that two questions?)
One thing that struck me about last year's team--and I wonder if it will carry over this season--is that the Nats were a "get-right" team for their opponents. If a team or player was struggling, or even not very good, it seemed like a series with the Nats was the perfect tonic for reversing (even if temporarily) their downward spiral. Good players ended their slumps, and bad players looked like bona fide big-leaguers. Let's see how the Arizona series unfolds.
It's early, but this year's team, as bad as it is, isn't even interesting. And that's probably the primary reason (to me, anyway) why they're virtually unwatchable.
On a more optimistic note, House seems to be adjusting nicely to Low A ball. Hitting well, leading the league in RBIs, though a little gamey at SS.
But on a more pessimistic, The-Nats-is-the-Nats note: If House has legitimate star potential, he should arrive in Washington about the time Soto leaves, stuck, I fear, wasting his prime on a mediocre team owned by a Jeffrey Loria-esque vulture.
It’s a 4 game series against the Dbacks so do the Nats have to take 3 of 4 to be a success?
ReplyDeleteJust here to point out that the Giants are starting Cobb in their first game today and Webb in the second. Watch out for Cobb-Webb.
ReplyDelete