Opening Day... I mean Night

Nats game pushed back to 7:00 to avoid the rain. Tickets still available to see Juan Soto and and the Sotettes.

The Nats stink. 

That's just a fact. 

• Their best starter has a bad shoulder which is usually very bad news, and won't pitch until probably Memorial Day.
• Their Opening Day pitcher might have been the worst full season starter last year. 
• Their #2 gives up homers at a prodigious rate, 19 in about a third of a season last year.  
• Their #3 is a guy they had high hopes for years ago who sticks around now because there is no one better. 
• Their #4 threw to a 6.62 ERA in 2020 and didn't pitch in the majors last year. 
• Their starting SS hit to a 67 OPS+ (.257 / .284! / .337!) over his last four years before being driven out of the game. That was in 2018.  He was once a plus defender but is 35 and decidedly not anymore. 
• Their starting 3B hit .210 / .253 / .355 last year and was released by the worst team in baseball. 
  
• Their starting CF has hit .209 / .304 / .302!!! over the past two seasons and was demoted in part because of a bad attitude.
  
• Their bullpen features guys that pitched to ERAs of 4.53 (Doolittle) 5.30 (Murphy) 5.34 (Voth) and 7.39 (Rainey). The guys that managed to pitch to better ERAs probably didn't deserve them with FIPs of 4.46 (Espino) 4.52 (Finnegan) and 4.63 (Machado). 
• Their 5th starter is just a random young 5th starter on a bad team. Their 2B is just an average 2B on a bad team. Their LF is just an average young 3rd/4th OF on a bad team. 

What does this leave that feels both secure and good? A decent 1B in a league lousy with decent 1B. A very good DH.  A solid though unspectacular closer.  A very good C prospect. Probably the best hitter of his generation still only 23.  This is the thin line between bad and OMG they are winning 50 games terrible. 

Of course we know this. This isn't what was agreed to but it was always a possibility if players didn't develop into stars (Kieboom), if injuries happened (Strasburg), if a long term FA contract finally didn't work (Corbin). This set up a team that couldn't be saved by holding onto a player or two. So instead they went and we're left with... this. 

What is there to look forward to then?

• Juan Soto's quest for an MVP.  He's likely the best hitter in the game. So good that he can win the MVP without being anything more than a ok baserunner and not embarrassing fielder. So good he can win the MVP for a terrible team. He's 23.  He's peaking. This time has come. 
• How Keibert Ruiz develops. He's also 23. He makes insane contact with about 180 Ks in the equivalent of 3 150 game seasons in the minors. If he can just hit for average he'll be a solid starter. If he can develop patience or power or a little of both he could be a star.
  
• Just watch Cruz homer. It's fun. Hopefully this won't be the year he ages. 
  

What about things to maybe not enjoy but to watch for?

• Are Strasburg/Corbin are ok. They don't have to both be great, though that would be nice. One though has to be good, the other... let's just say mid-rotation usable. The Nats might have cash to add another pitcher to keep Soto happy. Stras and Corbin filling in two spots from 2 to 4 in the rotation and feeling good for a few years is vital. If neither look good... let's just not think about that. 
  
• Josiah Gray. Rushed up to AAA and the majors it's hard to figure what to make of him. His limits do seem to suggest he's both not an ace but definitely a major league pitcher of some sort. Where he falls from 2 to in-and-out 5th will make a big difference for the Nats. 
• Lane Thomas. Is he something? Probably nothing more than a 4th. But STL is lousy with OF and Thomas did ok in minors and is not old so kick the tires. He seemed more like a 3rd OF with the Nats last year. Maybe you get that for a few years allowing the Nats to put some money elsewhere in the "rebuild to keep Soto" future. 
• Victor Robles bounces back. Speaking to that effect. Robles was a top notch defender who hit well enough to start. The hope was he'd hit slightly better and the Nats would have a plus player. That didn't happen. He hit worse. If he just gets back to where he was - again the Nats have a decent starter and can put money somewhere else for a couple years.
  
• Luis Garcia. The guy should be up in the majors but isn't.  A little overwhelmed playing for the Nats last year he raked in AAA. But it was less than 40 games, so we need to see him do it again. That would show you're at least a starter in the majors for 2023.
  

In the minors 

• Cavalli, Rutledge, Henry.  All look like they'll be ready for some major league time over the next two years. Can someone take a step up to look like a potential top of the rotation guy? How many will look like good rotation starters - like better than Fedde/Ross looked? 
• House development. SS of the future? 3B of the future? The future is coming quick for a team looking to keep Soto here beyond 2024 so the faster you can develop the better.
• Who do the Nats draft with their high pick?  
  

The Nats have a ton of holes and question marks looking to that key year of 2024. All the infield, 2/3rd the OF, the entire rotation.  What they desperately need isn't minor league development in all those places or good play this year.  What they need are answers. Enough answers for 2024 that they can figure out solutions for the remaining questions. They need a rotation to come together that looks at least 3 deep from 1-4. (Finding 5 is a perennial issue for every team) They need and OF and a couple IFs to look decent so they know what they need to target - corner OF or CF? SS or 3B? They need to come out of this year with a good idea on where the money will go before 2023 and 2024 to keep Juan Soto here. Because keeping Juan Soto is ultimately THE answer for being competitive in the near future