How about Josh Bell?

 In contrast to Nelson Cruz, Josh Bell has been unusually hot. Early on I said it couldn't last but he's at .345 / .439 / .513 still. Is this real? Even a little bit? 

The first reason to doubt it is while he's had pretty good seasons in the past they've been power driven.  His power this year is actually lower so far than his usual.  Instead this is average driven, and that usually says luck. But let's look! 

Does Bell usually start fast?

Doesn't really have a rhyme or reason to his production - which is how most players are I bet

You said average - BABIP high?

Yeah .372. 11th in majors, well above his usual numbers in the .270s/.280s.  It's not an impossible number for a season, but it's a near league leading one and usually reserved for guys with a little speed who leg out some GBs others wouldn't. Bell doesn't have that.

But you got to see how he's hitting right? 

Yep. If he's smashing LDs then there you go. And.... smashing? No. Hard hit % is down, soft is up. EV isn't high, not a lot of barrels. Nothing sneaky there - might even be hitting it LESS hard. 

LDs? those are up! 22.5% from 20% last year and in the high teens before that. GBs are down a good 5% over two years too. So LDs yes.  And you don't necessarily have to smoke line drives, as long as they aren't soft. 

So you'd say he's hitting it better?

Yes, not harder but better and I think better is more important than harder (see; injured Zimmerman, Ryan hitting 100MPH balls into the dirt in front of home plate) 

Anything else? What about Ks and Walks? 

A lot fewer Ks - the lowest of his career by far (around 11% when he's more of a high teens guy).  Walks a tick up but in the neighborhood of what you'd expect

So he's seeing the ball better?

I don't know about that - he's swinging at more balls outside the zone, so it looks like more just an approach change. 

Well great! 

Well... 

Hey what's wrong? 

Nothing. But as you can imagine his BA isn't going to be .345. It'll be more like .325. Which is good don't get me wrong but there's that power drop. That lines up with his bad years. We're talking 15ish homers. 

Could it be just a HR/FB luck?

It could but then again - the hard hit%, the power, etc. He's not hitting the ball superhard. I'd say it isn't just bad luck it's sort of by design. 

 But .325 say... 20 homers, some walks, that's not bad

No it is good. But its not great. Not really. It's sort of good season DJ LeMahieu but without the defensive versatility.  Mark Grace but without the defense. It's just an unusual combination that's all. A high average contact first baseman that can't field particularly well.  The best comparison might be David Segui? But even he probably fielded better. You usually save 1B for the lumbering power hitter. 

So... is it a problem? 

Well it's a problem in that the Nats rank 14th in the NL in homers. If you want more power you generally stick them in the DH (where Cruz might be dead) at 1B (where Bell is doing this) or in the corner OF (where Soto IS hitting for power). So the Nats don't have a lot of options to cover for that power loss. Again - a good hitter is a good hitter so you don't move him off but you may have to get creative elsewhere to find that power if this is the New Bell and you keep him around.

Conclusion? 

Bell's start is obviously skewed but the general direction is looking more and more real. We'll keep an eye on that LD% (22.5%) and the K% (11%) to see if those hold, as well as hard hit % and homers over the next 3 weeks. If it's real that's good and does make him a better hitter than we saw last year but not THAT much better and it might present a line-up construction issue for the team. But given the team has a lot of crap "is 1B the best place for a good hitter that doesn't hit homers" is very low down the list of problems to address.