What does that mean?
1) It puts a big pause on Cavalli's development. The best case is he is seen halfway through next year meaning maybe he's a useful starter in 2025. Worst case, of course, is he doesn't come back.
2) It creates a hole in an already dicey rotation situation where Gray/Gore/Cavalli at the back end was already a questionable tactic, given their performances (Gray), injury history (Gore), and inexperience (Cavalli). It's easy to see someone needing to drop out of the rotation and the replacement would be... well there is no good replacement. This is already on top of the fact the Nats #1 is Corbin who has been possibly the worst pitcher in baseball the past couple years and #2 is Trevor Williams a guy hoping to stretch himself back into a full-time starter to get some big bucks.
I don't mind saying "I told you so" but the Nats starting pitching situation was particularly dicey with development having to go better than expected as of today for two guys for it to form a core around the Nats could build something more. Now it could still happen but the Nats have to go 2 for 2, instead of 2 for 3.
There are other things that could happen - Gore or Gray could be a #1, both could be #2s, Susana could become one of the best pitching prospects in baseball, a guy in the system or their draft pick could surprise - but these are long shots.
The Nats season got a little less interesting. One fewer reason to turn in. A knock to the chance at being something sooner rather than later (or never). Crafting a good team from scratch is hard. After catching some luck the first time around that made it go as smooth as it could reasonably go, Nats fans are learning this the hard way.
I think the big cost here is that the 2023 season is now less interesting (and less watchable). Cavalli starts were a reason to tune in, and now there will be zero of them.
ReplyDeleteI think there's a reasonably strong case to be made that this was always going to happen to Cavalli, sooner or later. It happened sooner. This is good luck for the Nats in the sense that their record in 2023 is basically irrelevant (and there's a case to be made that a worse record-better draft pick is better overall for the franchise, and no Cavalli could contribute to that). In other words: we'd rather have this happen this year compared to '24, '25, or some other year in the future. This timing is bad luck for the Nats in the sense that we just don't have a lot of info about Cavalli's quality (which Harper covers in his post). Even if he comes back exactly the same next year - we don't know how good "exactly the same" is.
Nats have an MO of trading good for better. I thought Cavalli, as a probable #5 maybe #4 was important as part of a future trade. He won't have enough time to show enough trade value in 60% of his 2024 season. Now his short term value is actually being great in 2025, which is improbable. Getting to 87 wins in 2025 (my stretch goal) required Cavalli as a starter. Call him just two wins, but my 2025 hopes are on the ropes.
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ReplyDeleteAnon @ 8:35 - yeah I mean it's entirely possible withint 3 starts Cavalli isn't in the majors but for at least a month you'd have wanted to see what the guy had. You can't say that about Adon or Irvin or Abbott or whoever.
ReplyDeleteTaking any positive out of this is impressive. Good for you
bh - Well if the '05 team could do what they did anything is possible I guess. There's always hope until there's not
This sucks…..that’s all I got say about that!!!
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