There are a lot of ways to cut the Nats recent play. Set the starting point at April 21 and they are 9-7. Set the starting point at April 27th and they are 5-6 but anyway you slice it the Nats have been more entertaining, if not, you know, good.
They had a terrible start to the year starting 1-6, and getting outscored something like 39 runs to 17. It wasn't fun. But since then they've been... well not great either with a 13-14 record, but that is probably more realistically who they are than the team looking like they might win 40 games.
Since the first 5 games (so in their last 29 games) they have been involved in 13 one run games (6-7) and 5 two run games (1-4). They've been close. This is what teams with good pitching and terrible hitting often see. The Nats don't have good pitching (it's ok) but their hitting isn't terrible either (merely bad). This seems right. If you figure they slip a couple games every 20.. with 130 or so left... puts them about 20 games under for the seeason so like 71-91. I think everyone would take that.
I'm not sure they get there. The season is long, their depth is weak, and their relying on two young arms that might tire out still in September. But you'd have to say it's that kind of level they've been playing at. Garcia is hitting again. Thomas, Robles was. Candelario continues to spiral down. Neither Gore or Gray seems at their best. Will be an interesting next start for both.
Harvey got a save but that's all Finnegan being tired.
Perfectly sums up my sentiments. I've been pleasantly surprised by this team, with a little more power (maybe we get lucky as the weather warms up), they start to look like nearly a .500 team. But you're right that there's just zero depth. A few bad breaks and this team can take a tumble. So realistically I think the goal is 65 wins, just under 100 losses. I won't be surprised if they pull off better than that, but I won't expect it either
ReplyDeletegood enough that i remembered i like going to this blog
ReplyDeleteThey're okay against teams outside the top 10. They've played one bottom feeder in the Rockies and went 2-2. Against the middle of the league, they're 9-7. They need to steal more wins against good teams, as they're 3-11 against those now.
ReplyDeleteOf course, this is going by standings. ELO puts some of those "top 10" teams toward the bottom, and some middling teams (Mets, Twins) in the top 10. That clouds things up a bit (5-7 vs top 10 ELO, 6-9 middle 10 ELO, 3-4 bottom 10 ELO). In that world, they're just a slightly sub-.500 team against everyone.
I want to see some more matchups against the dregs of the league to see if they can consistently win against teams that even mediocre teams should beat.
Theathletic ranked the Nats 28th out of 30 today. And it actually got a rise out of me. I think the Nats are a solid 25th, with luck 23 or 24. I'm sticking to 67 wins. I disagree about the debth. Teams with players averaging over 32 yrs old need depth. Young teams might need a little more starting pitching depth for the end of the year, but the position players have better odds than most teams.
ReplyDeleteI’m gonna say it again. This is why you call up Jake Irvin and click and drag Chad Kuhl to the recycle bin. Kuhl isn’t part of the rebuild. Irvin might be. Irvin could very well spiral too, but we’d never know it logging 25 starts in AAA. The team has nothing to lose (other than a lot of games). Move some kids along in the system and find out what you have.
ReplyDeleteOne of the things that makes the team watchable is that they are playing much better defense and they never give up. If this weren't a Nats fan site I would consider the possibility that that is a tribute to the manager and coaches.
ReplyDeletePBN, Not to worry - Kuhl was always a stopgap. He was signed to a minor league contract and the only reason that he got any starts at all this season was because of Cavalli's injury. I suspect that the only reason that he went to the IL instead of being DFA'd was because his wife is battling breast cancer and the organization is doing him a solid. Which would speak well of them. Suffice it to say that, as long as the Jake Irvin "Cinderella story ... came outta nowhere" run continues, Kuhl is going to be on the sidelines. There are scenarios where Kuhl does get another start or two, but they involve someone else getting hurt and not having anyone in the minors ready for that jump.