Time flies when the team you write about isn't really relevant.
Today we'll talk about the bullpen, the back end is rounding into the solid staff we thought they might be. Over the past 28 days (so after the bumpy starts for Finnegan and Harvey) we see guys doing this :
Harvey 1.64 ERA, 0.909 WHIP, 12.3 K/9
Finnegan 0.93 ERA, 1.035 WHIP
Thompson 2.30 ERA, 0.894 WHIP, 8.00 K/BB
Add to that Edwards mysterious 1.80 ERA (he's not pitching particularly well other than keeping guys from scoring. Which is good! But also is something that doesn't usually hold - you don't end up with a 89% LOB rate and you have a pen that can really hold down the end of games. One more good arm, especially if it's a good YOUNG arm (which only Thompson is here) and it might be a pen worth crowing about. Machado has had a good start but isn't young.
On the other hand Ward is merely ok, Harris, Ramirez and the recently departed Banda not so much. So there's definitely a all or nothing aspect here. And that's a problem when you really want to give Gore and Gray as much support as you can. If say Corbin or a guy like Irvin surprises you with a good game you want to try to win? You might run out these guys a few times and have them not be left for the Gore / Gray games you want to save.
Granted this is good win-now strategy. Don't plan for saving games that may not be games worth saving. But this isn't a win-now team. So I'm fine throwing Corbin and 5th starter starts to the wolves to maximize what the Nats can do for Gray and Gore.
But really this all begs the question - when can we see Cronin up here? Wasn't he supposed to be the next big bullpen piece the Nats had plans for? Well he hasn't pitched since the 23rd so he's probably hurt, even if we haven't heard anything about it. After him there isn't much in AAA.
AA has more interesting arms, and more hurt arms. Trade acquisition Gerardo Carillo? Looking good until landing on IL. Trade acquisition Richard Guasch? Looking good until landing on IL.Still there's more. Former starter prospect Tim Cate, who has been death to lefties in his new role, Malvin Pena, and Amos Willingham. None of these guys is that young (Thompson is months younger than all of them) so you shouldn't feel bad pressing them to see what happens.
So that's what I want. Some aggressive pen arm work in the minors. These guys arms don't usually last long and results are pretty variable. A dominant 19 year old, sure, take your time with. I don't really see the point of saving these guys, though A lot of working a pen is striking while it is hot. The guys the Nats have up aren't all that special so if you have to DFA, then DFA. But let's give the fans a bit more. This is easy and fun. Call up a couple. Say you are trying to build an unhittable pen. See what happens.
So how do you rate DM's bullpen management?
ReplyDeleteHe leaves Corbin in with a 3-0 lead in the 8th after Corbin has pitched 7 innings of shutout ball. Lets him put 2 men on. Maybe that was justified as he wanted to rest the pen.
Puts in a tired Harvey who lets the two runners score, and another. But he gets out with a tie.
Puts in a tired Finnegan who gets himself into an untenable jam but pulls off a miracle. Superhuman effort, but a lot of wear and tear on the guy.
Nats win. What could Davey have done? You have to play for the wins, no?
Yeah I feel like you play for the win today no matter what. Corbin pitches a gem and you turn around and throw Machado out there? No thanks. Maybe if Machado had started the inning, sure, but not with 2 men on. In general I have qualms with when DM pulls people and who he puts in, but today I'd say he acted appropriately
ReplyDeleteThis was terrible bullpen management. Protecting a 3-run lead with 6 outs to go only requires pitching to a 9.00 ERA or better. Every single member of the Nats bullpen -- even recently demoted Tony Banda -- has done that all season. Tired relievers are more likely to pitch below their stats. Just ask Drew Storen.
ReplyDeleteSo leaving gassed Corbin in, and then pitching Harvey and Finnegan today didn't improve the Nats in the short run -- it made them more likely to lose the game, which they almost did. And it didn't improve the Nats in the long run either - it risked injury to two pitchers who may be core pieces of the rebuild, and it deprived other pitchers the chance to experience a higher leverage (but still pretty low) situation as part of their development.
@NG
ReplyDelete"gassed" Corbin? Dude was only at like 70 pitches, had thrown like 50 strikes, and had allowed a single weak hit all game. You let him start the inning 10 out of 10 times, especially with a tired bullpen. You can maybe debate which pitchers out of the bullpen to throw out there once he let 2 men on, but please don't go and argue that Davey messed up by leaving Corbin in
Eh, I don't think it's a slam dunk to keep Corbin in. He was already an inning past his longest start on the year. He was looking a bit less sharp. The pitch count was low, and he was looking alright, but it's also April and a little cold. It was fine to have him start the 8th, but it would have also been fine to pull him.
ReplyDeleteAnd once he starts, then the 9.00 ERA comparison breaks down. Looking at 2022 run expectancy by game state, the average inning yielded .476 runs. With no outs and runners on first and second, that jumps to 1.435, a league average pitcher coming in when Harvey did and pitching through the 9th would expect to give up about 1.9 runs.
That was a legit high leverage spot, at least as far as this team cares about wins.
Which isn't to necessarily say that Davey made the right move. Three games in a row is tough. I think I bring in Thompson as the fireman. If he gets the hold pretty cleanly (<20 pitches), I let him start the 9th and go for the save. If not, who knows. Maybe I bring in Finnegan at that point, but I don't love it.
HG - Using guys on the third day in a row is always iffy, especially if you don't have the next day off. So I don't like that aspect of it. And my take above is based on "I'd rather keep our best guys on hand to back up Gray just in case" so again I don't like it.
ReplyDeleteBut if I'm viewing it trying to be objective... it was probably only a minor issue. You want to go after wins, but you don't want to wear out your arms. In this case he had to choose one or the other. I probably would have tried Edwards because he's the good arm I care least about, but you do want to protect Thompson as the youngest arm. So Harvey OR Finnegan was likely to see action.