Wednesday, June 14, 2023

Call it? Or Stone Cold?

 Robles is coming back soon and he continues to hit better in his rehab. He's going to return sooner rather than later and someone has to go to replace him. The Nats have 4 OF right now. Thomas is actually a good player despite some shakiness in the field*. He's set. Dickerson has slowed way down since coming back and probably stinks but he's kind of in mid April form so he needs more time. Besides someone has to be DFA's for Wood. 

This leaves Alex Call or Stone Garrett to take the fall. The Post's Andrew "Living his life like it's" Golden goes over the crux of it here. He breaks it into Call can field, Stone can hit (maybe).  Some background

Stone is over a year younger. He showed right before the pandemic where his future may lie - hitting homers, by slugging 14 in 120 games. Post pandemic he upped that to 25 in 105 in AA and 28 in 103 in AAA and that did carry into a major league trial in 2022. He hit 4 homers and 8 doubles in 27 games.  His bugaboo, as Golden notes, is a big K rate getting up over 30%.

Call had less time in the minors though as he was a college player. He never showed much until 2021 in AA where he hit for average with doubles power and increased patience. 2022 showed similar trends in AAA. Both these seasons were abbreviated and call-ups to the next level each year didn't work out. But after grabbing him in 2022 the Nats played Call a decent amount (35g) and saw the better power and patience, if not the average.

Both guys are what you expect from late 20s "prospects". They have some things working for them but more against and something would have to change to see them become a major league player.

Is Call good in the field and inept at the plate? Well his patience is real but the power seems more fluke than growth. As a guy that never hit for good average you are going to get very little from him other than the ability to see some pitches. His defense is good in the aspect of getting outs above average but it's not backed up by a better than average range. I'm trying to find the stats to match my reading but my takeaway would be - he catches the balls he can get to much better than the average player, but he can get fewer balls. That's still a plus defender but not someone that's going to, if the breaks happen, become an outstanding one.

Is Stone a lummox in the field and if so is there any hope of him being better at the plate? Well no, he's not a lummox. He's perfectly average in the easiest defensive position LF. His arm isn't good so he can't move to RF and he can't try it in CF but if you don't move him he's ok. At the plate the power drop does seem odd. I mean we know why it's happening - he's not hitting balls in the air. But we don't know why he's not hitting balls in the air, or at least I don't. There's no change in pitch type. I imagine lower pitches would do it. But maybe he's not lucking into as many mistakes or he's just missed them somehow


I don't know which to pick honestly. I guess if I flip a coin I'd keep Garrett. Slightly younger, slightly more success in the majors, platoons, and I can't exactly pinpoint why he can't hit for power right now. Where as I think Call's good offense was a mirage and his D is of the "sure hands" rather than "cover ground" variety, so I think the Nats are losing less than you might think there. But I wouldn't peg Garrett for any long term success.  Yes it leaves the Nats with no good CF option when Robles sits but they aren't lighting it up with their D now.


*He clearly isn't a CF but isn't being asked to play CF this year unlike the last two. So it's kind of curious why it hasn't shown in his D numbers getting better.  Perhaps it's the vagaries of defensive stats. Or maybe he's getting old?

7 comments:

  1. So do you expect to see Wood this season? September call up or earlier if he continues to play like he has?

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  2. Trade Robles. Not enough control left to be a part of the rebuild. Might even get a real prospect for him?

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  3. conor - That was a joke. I don't see him called up... probably Things could change but he isn't currently burning down AA (power is there but he's striking out close to 40% of the time) and I expect they are thinking of him as a September 2024 guy. I would expect (hope) to see Blake Ruhterford unless he tanks in AAA. He is burning down AA and has bonafides - former 1st rounder who was a very well thought of prospect about 5 years ago. He tanked in the White Sox system but this is his first real change of scenery since struggling. Given he's now older and the Nats system, if it has anything has OF, there's no reason not to push the guy.

    billyhacker - Needs to get healthy and possibly show a little better in the field? Right now he may not be a CF and I don't know if you can rely on one year of O so he wouldn't get back much. But if he plays good CF D and hits for five weeks? Maybe.

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  4. Anonymous12:21 PM

    I don't agree with Harpers assessment of Call's range. Looking at the Baseball Reference stats for this year Call is the number 2 CF for range factor (both per game and per inning) which is just outs (putouts or assists) divided by games or innings respectively. I would think that if he is making more outs per game you could assume that he has some sort of additional range. Maybe the additional outs per game is because the pitching staff is allowing more batted balls that average, but still, I tend to read that stat as evidence that he has decent range. The odd thing to me is that Garret leads LF (per BBRF) in Total Zone Runs even though he has split time with Dickerson and others. Looking at Fielding Bible's Runs Saved (counting stat) Call is the 14th best OF and Garret is 35th. The out of the box idea is to have Robles or Call Play RF and put Thomas at DH.

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  5. Anonymous2:39 PM

    I don't think it really matters very much, but I'd rather have Call's defensive versatility.

    Batted ball data isn't the end all, be all, but as far as xwOBA is concerned Call is barely worse than Garrett (.291 vs .301). Probably relatedly, the projection systems expect them to have nearly equivalent offensive value per PA going forward, and some even prefer Call.

    And I'm with Harper on Rutherford. I'd bump him to AAA immediately and then have him take LF as soon as you give up any hope of flipping Dickerson. (So Aug 1 at the latest.) We should figure out if there's anything there now, before the kids start forcing their way into the lineup.

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  6. Anon @ 12:21 - I think the main takeaway is that defensive stats for 1/3 a season is a pretty tiny sample and we don't really know if we can take anything from it. Everyone's take is probably fair about Call's D for this season so we probably need to pull in several years and scouting.

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  7. DezoPenguin11:34 AM

    I'd vote, if I had one, for keeping Call up for the simple reason that I'd rather leave Thomas (actual MLB-quality baseball player, might be part of the next playoff-competitive Nats team) alone in RF rather than bouncing him to CF whenever Robles sits. 2023 seems to me to be all about player development--giving Gray, Gore, Ruiz, Abrams, Garcia, Thomas and whomever else their best chance to grow into their potential--and I think the roster construction should be slanted in that direction.

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