Expectations for 2nd half

First a couple notes from the comments

On the Dustin Ackley comparison.  I actually am very familiar with Ackley and he was great but there are a couple key differences. The primary one is power. Ackley developed power in his last college year that made people think he could have decent pop in the majors which was a question in his first two college years. Turns out though that that power development was a fluke that he never replicated. Crews has hit for good power every year at college. The lesser ones are Ackley's patience is there but his eye is not as good as Crews. Ackley was speedy and athletic but lacked a clear position because of a weak arm. That led people to say "he could play anywhere!" but also kept him from having security of set spot. He'd end up at 2nd and do ok, but was clearly more of a 1B. Crews can play OF just fine. No worries

So what happened to Ackley? In hindsight it appears that the power fluke mattered a ton. He was far more the guy who hit 7 homers in a college year instead of 22. It didn't develop beyond that and that meant major league pitchers would challenge him in the zone more, which cut the effectiveness of his good eye. The only way out of this predicament would be to hit .300 and prove they needed to respect your bat. I think though he (and the Ms) wanted him to be the guy they thought he could be. They spent time figuring out how to max his power instead of leaning into the average. By the time the Mariners gave up on him and he got to the Yankees who let him hit for average it was too late. He was entering an injury prone phase and never would see healthy reps in his prime again. 

In short I think Ackley's junior year got him that #2 pick but I think his junior year wasn't who he was. I don't think this applies to Crews who's freshman year would have made him a possible #1 and whose sophomore and junior years just solidified that thinking. 

 

On Blake Rutherford. I have NO IDEA why it isn't a bigger deal that the Nats have a young 26 yo former 1st round pick hitting .346 / .404 / .616 across AA and AAA. I get why Wood gets more interest. He isn't doing as good but he's a teenager. He looked so good in High A! He has legit power. He could be a superstar! I sort of understand why a guy like Hassell gets more interest. He was a highly thought of prospect who is just about 22 and was probably the biggest name in the return for Soto. That sort of thing sticks even if this year will have to be a pass for him because of injury. But why do I hear more about Elijah Green? A guy who I noted pre-season was a "don't want to miss out" pick who showed nothing and has shown himself at best to be a guy who needs A LOT of work making contact. Or about Alex Call for gods sake? Hell I've heard more about guys that wish they were Call like Stone Garrett and Derek Hill. And this isn't even talking about the weird Cult of Alu. 

My guess is Blake is ignored because he wasn't ever part of the plan. Not at the beginning of the year, when major league cups of coffee were seen as the guys they want to try. Nor for the future, where it's all about the Soto return and a couple other real young talent. He came in as a guy they eyed not for potential improvement but long term organization filler. A decent AA / AAA bat that could round out those rosters. You don't want to say the Nats find what he's doing unwelcome, but the truth is they don't have a good idea what to do with it in the context of what they were planning. It shows a lack of flexibility though when you commit to talent that's not any greater the Calls, Garretts, Hills, just because that's what you planned going in and ignore what the numbers say. If he was being sit while a prospect got their licks - ok then but Rutherford needs to be up soon or let a better org give him his reps to see what's real. 

I went on a little long with these but expectations - or more precisely a quick rundown of things that should even out over the course of the 2nd half. 

 

HITTERS

Unsustainable BABIPs : 

    High End : Lane Thomas, Riley Adams, Victor Robles. Joey Meneses probably too but that's likely ok

    Low End :  Ruiz, Call maybe.

Unsustainable HR/FB : 

    High End : None. Not surprising on a team that's been terrible at homering.

    Low End : Meneses. The guy should be hitting a lot fewer singles and a few more homers. The trade-off should be fine.  Smith/Dickerson could get better but it might just be who they are now.  I'm leaning toward the latter

PITCHERS

Unsustainable BABIPs : 

    High End : LaSorsa if he gets a chance. Gore should improve.

    Low End :  Weems assuming he's not unhittable. Maybe Harvey but just a touch

Unsustainable LOBs* : 

    High End : Gray, Weems. Maybe Gore, Finnegan, Willams

    Low End :  La Sorsa again. He might be terrible but 18.00 ERA has to have a good chunk of bad luck. Maybe Thompson. Honestly everyone unlucky they cut.

Unsustainable HR/FB : 

    High End : No one really

    Low End : Edwards Jr when he gets back. Thompson maybe.

Short of this would suggest the offense is probably going to dip a little but Ruiz should make you feel less bad about that extension and Meneses will probably have a more fun 2nd half. You guys love that guy. The pitching should be about the same. I'd expect Weems to come to Earth and Gore and Gray to meet somewhere in the middle which would be about 3.80 - 4.00 ERA. This would suggest a tough 2nd half where close wins become close losses. That would probably put them back on the 62-64 win track as projected. But honestly only a couple and luck could break the Nats way. Having decent pitching keeps you in games and if you are in games things can happen. 

Now if they bring up Rutherford they are the team of the 2nd half.

*of less interest for hitters because it's an RBI stat but for pitchers it works into ERA and well everything.